Ogonowski within 10 points of Tsongas

The debates (0.00 / 0)

I would like to see how he does in a debate. In some of the blogs I've read, it seems no one can really say anything bad about him, they just call him a 'republican'.

“The family does not exist for society or the state, but society and the state exist for the family.” "People have no problem trying to influence other people's children, but no one wants someone influencing their own."

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by: Renee @ Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 18:10:21 PM CDT

Not all that exciting... (0.00 / 0)

Survey USA uses a method that forces undecided's to make a decision.  (It is an automated phone poll that asks you to "press 1 for candidate X" and does not readily make "don't know/undecided" an option).

So this poll only has 4 % undecided.  With a ten point spread, where does the O-man get the other 6 or 7 points?  EaBo, as you have pointed out, this is not a Cambridge/Brookline/Newton type of district and even in the best scenario, a 5 point Democratic win for this open seat is a reasonable win.

But yes, 10 points is within striking distance if the O-man can peel off the weak Tsongas voter.  But really, you don't want a close poll like this so early, it rallys the troops and you don't want that.

Last year's NH 1st CD is an opposite example of this.  Republican Jeb Bradley thought (as everyone did including I) he had the election in the bag.  The only poll 6 weeks out showed him 20 points up.  Then 6 days before the election, the UNH poll showed him 5 points up and he got caught flat-footed lossing by about 2 points.  Bradley didn't spend all his money, had no mail program, had no negative ads in the can to run.  He had no time to change tactics.

This poll will get Niki and the Dmes attention with plenty of time to react and adapt.  Is this the peak of the O-campaign or the first sign of major movement"

As I've said before, time will tell.

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by: Festus Garvey @ Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 18:40:27 PM CDT

Your fellow progressives at (0.00 / 0)

BMG would probably disagree with your assesment.  To them the Survey USA poll is very reliable.  Yes we will see. But this poll energizes Ogonowski's base probably more than it does Tsongas'.  This is going to be a fun rocking and rolling election season.

Full Disclosure

http://www.redmassgroup.com/pr...

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by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno @ Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 18:50:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh, I'm not saying it's not reliable... (0.00 / 0)

...in fact forcing people into making a decision is exactly like going into the polling booth.  It's as good as any poll, and maybe better.  My point is, you got 4 % of the voters that are still undecided, but a 10 point gap.  How do you make up the difference.

Close polls energizes both sides...I have a feeling the dems have more energy in MA.

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by: Festus Garvey @ Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 19:00:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

there is a 4.9% (0.00 / 0)

margin of error in this poll and the poll oversampled democrats and under-sampled unenrolleds.  The district is 51% unenrolled not 40% and the district is 33% democrat not 42%. 

Lets look at the numbers with actual registration not what the Survey USA poll says.

If you use the crosstabs and their breakdowns I provided and went with Actual registration of
Republicans 13.8%
Unenrolleds 51.9%
Democrats - 33.3%
Others - 1%

The lead shrinks to 6 points very close to the margin of error.

Also Ogonowski is trouncing Niki in the unenrolled category. 

My prediction Ogonowski wins by 2 points

Full Disclosure

http://www.redmassgroup.com/pr...

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by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno @ Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 19:33:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh you HAD to do it, EaBo (0.00 / 0)

...put that prediction out there!!!

Ohhhh you'e a political junkie, aren't you !!!!!!

Let's see how the fundraising comes in the next two weeks, and then we can make a new assessment.

If the RNC and NRCC don't come forward with some serious money NOW (i.e., after this poll), then I'LL be the next protester arrested in the Capitol.

Let's see what these fools are made of.

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by: wavemaker @ Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 19:52:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Two can play this game... (0.00 / 0)

The poll also understates women voters (51% surveyed and women generally make up about 55% of voters) and Niki crushes the O-man better than 2 to 1 with women.  Also, note that Niki wins with self id'd moderates.

Funny, you mentioned the poll oversampled Dems, yet you somehow failed to mention the poll also oversampled Reps also.  My sense is the poll may have it right, that unenrolled won't show up in a special election.  That certainly makes sense.  Hell, they only show up in presidental years, what ever makes you think their turnout will mirror their percentage of registered voters?

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by: Festus Garvey @ Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 20:39:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Women make up 52.7% (0.00 / 0)

Of voters in the MA-05 district, according to registration numbers I found in voter vault.

Full Disclosure

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by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno @ Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 20:47:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Why in the world would you project turnout % based on (0.00 / 0)

voter registration numbers?  You know better, you're just spinning.  There is plenty of exit poll data that proves women vote in far greater percentages than men.  From [one http://www.cawp.rutg...} (PDF) I grabbed:

Women vote in higher numbers than men, and have done so in every election since 1964. In 2000, 7.8 million more women voted than men did. Because of unprecedented voter registration efforts, women may vote in even larger numbers in 2004.

• Women have voted at higher rates than men since 1980. In 2000, 56.2% of registered women voters went to the polls, compared to 53.1% of men voters.

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by: Festus Garvey @ Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 21:02:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Project an Ogonowski Win here. (0.00 / 0)

Niki is a mooooonbat.

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by: Vote3rdpartynow @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 07:45:36 AM CDT

Argh... (0.00 / 0)

Argh... Don't like her, then say why you don't like her on her policy. I know I don't like it when people call me names.

“The family does not exist for society or the state, but society and the state exist for the family.” "People have no problem trying to influence other people's children, but no one wants someone influencing their own."

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by: Renee @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 08:17:20 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't need to know her policies - (0.00 / 0)

I can dislike her just for being her.

If people can vote FOR Deval Patrick even though they don't know squat about him, then I am entitled to vote AGAINST Niki Tsongas even though I don't know squat about her.  That is the joy of free speech in a democracy.  I don't need a reason.

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by: Vote3rdpartynow @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 08:43:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Moonbat? Hardly (0.00 / 0)

Please, Tsongas was the most moderate, mainstream, (boring) candidate in the Dem Primary. I have no doubt she'll be an effective congresswoman, but she ain't no moonbat.

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by: eury13 @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 10:12:03 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's all relative. (0.00 / 0)

Being the most moderate in the democrat primary doesn't mean she isn't a moonbat.  It just means she is less of a moonbat than the others.

I had a moment to look at her ideas.  Let's analyze, shall we? - These ideas can be seen on her website.

1. She believes in "polution allowances" which is a new way of saying "carbon credits".  The term carbon credits lost credability when it was realized that the idea was ludicrous and people were selling phoney carbon credits to the morons that believe in them.  But alas, Niki wants to revive the idea.
2. Niki is for socialized medicine and states on her website that she endorses government control of the pricing and purchasing of many medications.  She wants to expand the concept of mandatory healthcare across the country using Massaachusetts as an example of succesful healhcare.  Need I remind Niki that the Massachusetts healthcare system is an abortion of common sense.  The poorest among us still do not have health insurance and many that don't want it are now being penalized for not having it.  Hey Niki, keep your government out of my doctor's office.
3. She calls for forging public-private partnerships.  Gee sounds good until you realize she is talking about more government and more intrusion into business.  I vaguely remember a textbook defining that as socialism.
4. Niki is for a huge expansion of education funding and control from the federal government.  I had trouble with the way the state wanted to stick it's liberal nose into the local classrooms, now Niki wants a federal official to tell our teachers what kind of foolishness to blabber about for the 5 hours a day they work.  Not only that, but Niki wants to get her hands on our kids during preschool with a universal preschool system.  I would ask Niki - How much freakin money do you think that would cost?  You and the bird-brain bureaucrats already take too much of my hard eanred dough and now you want to stick your filthy hands in my pocket to take more.
5. Everything Niki says, believes, wishes, wants, hopes for, dreams of, requires the use of some poor taxpayer's money.

eury13, the only thing she is missing is the tinfoil on her head.  I call that moonbattery.....

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by: Vote3rdpartynow @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 11:56:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

She wasnt the most Moderate (0.00 / 0)

Finegold and Miceli are hell of a lot more Moderate than she was. And you are telling me Donoghue is more Liberal than Tsongas? At best Tsongas is as Liberal as Donoghue. I mean Donoghue was a registered Independent for the better part of the last four years. I'd rank them, (most Moderate being 1st) in this order:

1. Miceli
2. Finegold
3. Donoghue
4. Tsongas
5. Eldridge

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by: MerrimackMan @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 12:17:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

According to my good Republican friend from Lowell, (0.00 / 0)

Donahue is only a Dem so she could get elected, and is really a closet Republican.

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by: wavemaker @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 12:48:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ding ding ding ding (0.00 / 0)

Yes she is.  And so is Pangy.

Full Disclosure

http://www.redmassgroup.com/pr...

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by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 14:10:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Please (0.00 / 0)

Miceli's a conservative and Tsongas is an opportunist. She took her positions in the primary based practically exclusively on where the other candidates pushed her. If they got enough traction, she adopted their position.

I would have been thrilled to have a solid progressive moonbat, and I supported Eldridge in the primary. Tsongas pales in comparison (but for a federal seat I'll still take her over a Republican).

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by: eury13 @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 22:27:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

4% to Hayes and Thompson (0.00 / 0)

Thats too much, it widens the gap from 6% to 10%.

Anyway, I'd be interested in seeing how each region brokedown (Essex, Lowell, Greater Lowell, MetroWest, Beyond 495)

My guess is Ogonowski wins Greater Lowell and Beyond 495. Loses Narrowly (thanks to Lawrence) in Essex, Loses Lowell, and gets crushed in the MetroWest.

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by: MerrimackMan @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 08:01:52 AM CDT

Doesn't lose that big in Lowell (0.00 / 0)

Wards 6-5 will vote like Dracut does. They Normally do. The key will be getting out the vote in those six precincts in Lowell.  Wards 4 and 3 are sleeper wards as they are mostly Cambodian now and the Ogonowski Family is very well respected in the Cambodian community. 

Niki will be licking her wounds on Oct 17 if everybody on this site gets on the ball and helps out.  Don't wait to be asked just show up.

Oh and contribute everything you can afford here.  If you can afford $5 contribute it, if you can afford $2300 contribute that. 

Full Disclosure

http://www.redmassgroup.com/pr...

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by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 08:44:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Unfortunately (0.00 / 0)

I dont have the time to volunteer anymore (I helped out June-August).

Andover is now devoid of signs. It was all Finegold, Donoghue and Tierney before. Now there is nothing!

I'm curious, how does Ward One typically vote? Seems like a predominantly White Ward...but I have a feeling its a bit Mooooonbatty.

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by: MerrimackMan @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 10:38:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I remember (0.00 / 0)

I remember one of his very first endorsements was from the asian community.

“The family does not exist for society or the state, but society and the state exist for the family.” "People have no problem trying to influence other people's children, but no one wants someone influencing their own."

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by: Renee @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 13:40:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That 4%... (0.00 / 0)

...they probably are undecided also and picked some names so they could continue the survey...most likely they won't vote at all.

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by: Festus Garvey @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 09:05:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Worthless web site (0.00 / 0)

I'm thinking of voting for Jim but looking at his web site gives me no clue as to where he stands on any issues.  I checked out all the candidates sites during the primary.  Everyone had a nice little thing to click for issues. Nada for Jim.  I know he kept a low profile during the primary but if he or anyone in his campaign is listening please update your site to include stances on issues.

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by: MrThom @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 10:27:18 AM CDT

Info is out there.. (0.00 / 0)

We've all interviewed him.

His responses are all over our websites, newspaper sites, local access television stations, and you can find much of it on YouTube.

He didn't put his money into the websites for the primary.

Maybe the people he needed to target during that campaign were not particularly internet-savvy. I preferred seeing the emphasis put on one-on-one meetings and phone banks.

People who know how to use the internet can find the info. He has limited funds and I recommend he uses them frugally to target exactly the voters he needs to target.

Dracut Forum all you need to know about Dracut

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by: Shawn A @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 11:15:56 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Info is out there but... (0.00 / 0)

Yes information is out there but my point was other candidates have it in one place where they can decide what goes there.  I'm not sure casual voters will want to do a lot of searching on their own.  As far as targeting I am registered as a Republican, live in Lowell and could pretty much hit Dracut with a rock from my house and never got a single phone call or mailing.

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by: MrThom @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 12:29:54 PM CDT

I never trust whats on their campaign literature (0.00 / 0)

Its the interviews that matter to me.. when people were asking questions and they had to respond ..

Like when we asked Niki what she would do first about the energy problem, and her said the first thing she would do is "call for an investigation into the oil companies."

I don't think thats on her website.

You gotta see them talk, meet them.. get them past the pre-memorized speeches (I know, Jim has them too). That's when you understand them and their point of view.

Dracut Forum all you need to know about Dracut

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by: Shawn A @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 12:59:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I believe Ogonowski's strategy (0.00 / 0)

Was to conserve money for the Primary which is why you received nothing.

Full Disclosure

http://www.redmassgroup.com/pr...

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by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 14:10:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Meant General n/t (0.00 / 0)

Full Disclosure

http://www.redmassgroup.com/pr...

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by: Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno @ Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 14:10:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]