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2010

by: sleepleswithamoustache

Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 05:20:07 AM EST

( - promoted by Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie)

To see who can get closest to the actual vote count, and to see if there is any collective wisdom in the composite values of multiple predictions, I have put together all the Senate predictions from BMG and RMG.

Here are the straw poll and predictions from RedMassGroup:

RedMassGroup

Brown Coakley Kennedy Total

RMG Straw Poll 18 1 0 19

% 94.74% 5.26% 0.00%

RMG Predictions

Brown Coakley Kennedy Turnout

sleepleswithamoustache 48 50 2 1100000

Ken Pittman 52 47 1

Rob “EaBo Clipper” Eno 50.5 48.5 1 870000

yankeepundit 51 48 1 1050000

nomad943 54 44 2

garyrlake 51 47 2 880000

MerrimackMan 49 48 3 1000000

Vote3rdpartynow 48 48 4

ElectricStrawberry 48.1 48.1 3.8 3000000

Mike “DD4RP” Rossettie

1400000

Republican Ram Rod Radio 51 48 1 680000

Peter Porcupine 49 47 4

sleepleswithamoustache :: RMG / BMG: MA Senate prediction composites 1/19/2010

And the numbers from BlueMass:

BlueMassGroup

Brown Coakley Kennedy Total

BMG Straw Poll 5 31 0 36

% 13.89% 86.11% 0.00%

BMG Predictions

Brown Coakley Kennedy Turnout

sleeples 48 50 2 1100000

JoeTS 49 47 3

Carey Theil 45 53 2

Peter Porcupine 49 47 3

Wookie 46 52 2

BrooklineTom 46 61 3

Hoyapaul 47.5 51 1.5 1200000

cater68 51 45 4

Steve Stein 43 51 5 1200000

sabutai 47 51 2 785000

Ray M 45 52 3

HLPeary 46 52 2

PatrickLong 44 51 5 660000

ruppert 46 53 2

jconway 47.5 49.5 3 600000

petr 32 59
850000

eddiecoyle 44 54 2

JohnD 49 48.5 2.5

PeteSimon 47 49 3

FrankSkeffington

1900000

Argyle 50 49 1

Manny Happy Returns 53 41 3

Witch7 54 44 2

BigD 46 49 5

The composite values:

Composite Predictions

Brown Coakley Kennedy Turnout

BMG Average: 46.74% 50.39% 2.77% 1036875

RMG Average: 50.15% 47.60% 2.25% 1247500

BMG/RMG AVG 48.44% 49.00% 2.51% 1142187.5

Model Adjusted: 47.42% 49.57% 2.95%

So there we have it: BlueMass people overall think it will be a 50-47 Coakley victory and RedMass people average a 50-48 Brown victory, and RedMass predicts a higher turnout (1.2 mil to 1 mil).

The average between the prediction margins, which is a really quick and dirty way to aggregate the percentages, gives an absolutely razor thin 49-48.5 Coakley victory. Apparently, the collective Conventional Wisdom is that this will be an extremely close race.

If you are wondering what that "Model Adjusted" field is, I will post details on that in another post. This is my attempt at creating a prediction model out of this data.

Tags: polls, 2010 Special Election (MA), Martha Coakley, Scott Brown, predictions, Red Mass Group, Blue Mass Group, (All Tags)

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RMG / BMG: MA Senate prediction composites 1/19/2010 | 19 comments

I wasn't sure where you were headed with all the polls.... (0.00 / 0)

But this was a nice little exercise you did. No doubt this will be a very close race.......

My money is that it still won't be over by end of day.....

by: Vote3rdpartynow @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 05:08:24 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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Final Prediction (0.00 / 0)

Upping my vote total to 1.5 Million based on increased interest.

Brown 52%
Coakley 46.2%
Kennedy 1.6%

These predictions include Scott's advantage with the absentee ballots. The results reported by the media tonight will be a 4% - 5% margin for Scott Brown.

"Victory is Mine!" - Stewart Gilligan Griffin.

by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 06:52:47 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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What the heck! (0.00 / 0)

Whatever Brown gets, you guys all have Coakley way too high. What are you, believing the Kos poll over all others or something? Counting fraud and acorn maybe?

Here's mine:

Brown 54 Coakley 45 Kennedy 1

by: demolisher @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 07:04:16 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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Data! Precious precious data! (0.00 / 0)

Where the hell were all these predictions when I first posted the call for predictions?? Or the second time, when I posted a reminder???

Ah well, maybe next time.

Judging by the swing from the predictions below, I wonder if the model would have given Brown the edge. I will test it out when I get a chance, but I wish I had had it yesterday!

by: sleepleswithamoustache @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 13:48:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

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You didn't account for... (0.00 / 0)

terrorist attacks. Since the Taliban and Al Qaeda are no longer in Afghanistan, we may have to consider that they have relocated to Boston and could potentially pose a threat to Coakley. Considering this possible outcome, where do you see the election going in the event a panty bomber shows up at her campaign headquarters?

by: bet0001970 @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 07:05:53 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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My Prediction (0.00 / 0)

Brown - 50%
Coakley - 47%
Kennedy - 3%

Turnout - 1.3 Million (would have been 1.5, but for snow)

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators." -PJ O'Rourke

by: South Shore Republican @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 07:07:25 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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BTW (0.00 / 0)

Kennedy's 3% is made of roughly 75% confused old ladies.

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators." -PJ O'Rourke

by: South Shore Republican @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 07:09:07 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

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Adjusting my turnout numbers (0.00 / 0)

from 1 Million to 1.6 Million

Keeping with
Brown (R) 49%
Coakley (D) 48%
Kennedy (L) & Write-Ins 3%

by: MerrimackMan @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 08:24:33 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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I'm making the same prediction I made on Dec. 31st... (5.00 / 1)

....in an email to friends.

52%-48% for Brown.

However, since I forgot to include Kennedy then, my amended Prediction is:

52% Brown
47% Coakley
1% Kennedy

by: Paul R. Ferro @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 08:28:24 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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oops....and Turnout will be 1.5 Million (5.00 / 1)

by: Paul R. Ferro @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 08:30:20 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

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Prediction (5.00 / 1)

Brown 54.3 %
Coakley 44.
Kennedy 1.7%

Turnout 1.7 Million or 47%ish turnout over all.

by: VESuggestions @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 08:59:18 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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DAMMIT (5.00 / 1)

wish I had had your prediction data for the model!

It looks like most of the new predictions posted in response to this thread heavily favor Brown, so it may have swung my model to more accurately reflect the mood at RMG.

by: sleepleswithamoustache @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 13:56:51 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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Turnout will break 2Million (0.00 / 0)

Even with snow, WOW. That is a goood sign , glad I was wrong.

by: VESuggestions @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 20:40:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Ummm (0.00 / 0)

Brookline Tom has 110% turn out. LOL

by: VESuggestions @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:03:01 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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That's because... (0.00 / 0)

He's a liberal. And liberals are soooo much more smarter than everyone else.

Or is it that all of the dead people are planning to vote in this one?

I'm confused. Can a sock monkey vote?

by: bet0001970 @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:12:38 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

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In his defense, he did it on purpose (0.00 / 0)

Just wanted to clarify that he intentionally made it 110%. I included it anyway because hey, who the hell am I to say anyone's prediction is wrong?

Here is his post explaining why he went with 110%
BrooklineTom Comment

by: sleepleswithamoustache @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 13:53:13 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

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Prediction Threads (0.00 / 0)

I'm feeling generous, so I'll give Choke-ley 44.3 percent. There's still more than a handful of BHO-voters out there who can't stand her but still can't bring themselves to vote for Brown, so I'll give the Kennedy In Name Only a smidge over two percent. Although I was thinking a little more, I guess I'll have to be satisfied with something north of 53 percent (53.7?).

Secretary of Blue State Galvin has predicted as many as 1.6M-1.7M voting in this election. However, I'm going to keep it closer to 1.2M coming out today. It's a weak excuse, but the snow creates traffic that people aren't going to want to weather (groan!) just to stand in line.

New prediction thread: Absentee ballot counts will be higher this time than any other election of comparable size (percentage of total counts).

Prediction thread number two: How many of the 116,483 deceased registered voters in Massachusetts will vote today?

Apparently MSNBC's Ed Schultz would use at least ten aliases.

by: Philo Publius @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 10:47:41 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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Time to give 110% for Martha Coakley! (0.00 / 0)

wait...

"Victory is Mine!" - Stewart Gilligan Griffin.

by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 11:46:15 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

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Are These Predictions Pre-Fraud of Post-Fraud? (0.00 / 0)

Actual: 51 to 47
Post ACORN fraud: 51 to 49.5
Post absentee and recount fraud: 50 to 50

Winner: Decided in the courts. Liberal judges abandon principle and the law and anoint Queen Martha.

by: swamp_yankee @ Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 11:08:21 AM CST

by: you @ soon

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RMG / BMG: MA Senate prediction composites 1/19/2010 | 19 comments

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