Half of the electorate have no idea who Charlie Baker or Scott Brown are. Those that do have very favorable feelings. This is the major hurdle that both candidates have. Outside of GOP activist circles and their own districts, nobody knows who our candidates are.
Unenrolled voters that self identify as voting in the Republican Primary are much more conservative than their registered Republican counterparts. For instance the Governor has 22% approval among Republican registered voters, but only a 12% approval rating among those that self identify as unenrolled Republican Primary voters. They are also more likely to think the Commonwealth is on the wrong track, among other things. It's really interesting to note.
The area where we are most likely to pick up seats is the northeastern part of the state according to this poll. It is the only part of the state where a minority of respondents will "vote for their current State Representative in 2010".
There is broad support to repeal the sales tax hike to 5%. 59% of respondents would repeal the sales tax hike. That includes a 48% plurality of Democrats. That is one ballot question that is going to pass overwhelmingly, the Governor and Democrat Super-Majority legislature should budget for that likelyhood in the FY2011 budget.
It's a good thing the close the tolls group didn't get the signatures. This one would be going down in defeat big time. 56% of respondents don't support closing all tolls. Surprisingly more support comes from the tolls in the areas most dependent on toll roads. Those in Worcester/West and Suffolk county. Very odd.
53% think the Massachusetts Constitution should be changed to make access to healthcare a right. Yet 56% of those polled think we can't afford the Massachusetts Universal Healthcare system. File under "Money for nothing and the chicks for free?"
Massachusetts residents are most definitely bearish on the current economy. A full 89% of Massachusetts residents don't think that the recession is over in Massachusetts. If this number holds, it is not a good harbinger for incumbents of any political stripe. An angry electorate usually looks for someone to crucify.
Party members are not Christy Mihos's base. The unenrolled who vote in the GOP primary are. This is where his slight lead comes from. Those same Unerolled primary voters are breaking to Cahill in a general if Charlie wins the primary.
Scott Brown has a 35 point lead over Jack E. Robinson in the primary.
