525,600 Minutes until polls close for the 2014 election

Five hundred twenty-five thousand six hundred minutes

Five hundred twenty-five thousand moments so dear

Five hundred twenty-five thousand six hundred minutes

How do you measure, measure a year?

            -“Seasons of Love”, RENT, Jonathon D. Larson

This blog post went up at 8:00 PM on November 4, 2013.  That is exactly one year from the date, and time that polls close on November 4, 2014.  As conservatives we have one year to change the course of our Commonwealth.  One year to rebuild our party by focusing on legislative races.  

My good friend Michael Graham, writing in GoLocalWorcester.com seems to think we are doomed again next year.  He believes, that the numbers are against us as conservatives and Republicans in Massachusetts.  I have a different take.

Unlike Michael, I do not see 2010 as a wave year that skipped Massachusetts.  Remember we doubled our seats in the Massachusetts House of Representatives in the last Gubernatorial year election.  That by any measure was a success that we have built upon.  Yes we lost a couple of seats in an Obama wave year in Massachusetts during 2012, but we are poised to break through with more gains in 2014.  These gains will also help propel Charlie Baker to Victory.

Lets look at the 2010 election map, from Boston.com.

That swarth of red across the middle and edges of the state in the map above are where Charlie Baker won with a plurality or majority of the vote.

Translated to House districts that number is 69 House districts where Charlie Baker got more votes than Deval Patrick, and 88 districts where Deval Patrick, the Democrat, got less than 50% of the vote.  There are 160 House Districts, 88/160 is greater than 50%.  While it is crazy talk to think we can win every seat Deval Patrick got less than 50% in, we can certainly target strongly the 39 districts where Charlie Baker won that don’t have a current GOP Rep.  Win half of those 39 and we’re up to 49 seats in the House.

In the senate the numbers are similar. There are 13 districts where Charlie Baker garnered more votes than Deval Patrick, two districts that were tied, and 25 districts where Deval Patrick got less than 50% of the vote.  There are 40 state senate districts… you can do the math.

Charlie Baker has repeatedly said that the way to rebuild our party is through the legislature.  In 2010, in the midst of his loss, he had a staffer reach out to me to find out if Ryan Fattman won.  He understands that he does better if our legislative candidates do better. This is a fundamental shift in how statewide campaigns have been run by Republicans.  For that reason, I am significantly more optimistic than my good friend Michael Graham.  

We only win though if everybody gets involved. What are you going to do in the next 525,600 minutes to ensure victory in 2014?

About Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno