(Gabe Gomez, Charlie Baker also won in these numbers. In 2010 Brown won close to 100 districts. I’ve been preaching this for three years. – promoted by Rob “EaBo Clipper” Eno)
Like so many others, I’ve taken for granted that the Democrats have an overwhelming majority in the statehouse, and I looked at the state legislature as a lost cause. I volunteer and support the statewide ticket, but I’ve never really been involved in downballot races.
However, I reviewed the DailyKos’s election data by legislative district, and I was shocked at what I saw.
Scott Brown won a majority in 73/160 house districts, and won at least 48.5% in 81/160 house districts. He won a majority in 16/40 senate districts, and won at least 48.5% in 20/40 senate districts. Massive gains are possible for the MA GOP in the near future, even if outright majorities may take a few more cycles.
It’s been difficult for Republicans to make headway in the state senate, and we’re down to three seats or so. It’s run by a clique of conservative Democrats who’ve held their seats by promoting centrist positions on key issues. Every indication is that the new senate president will be the progressive Stan Rosenberg from Amherst, who’ll take the senate on a hard left turn, and I expect that seats in central & southeast Mass will become a lot more competitive.
Likewise, there’re a few counties that are eager for GOP representation in the statehouse. Now Norfolk County is Scott Brown’s base, so I would expect that he’d have done well here, but I was surprised that he won almost three quarters of the house districts.
Dukes and Nantucket
Is my optimism unfounded? I’d like to hear from some more experienced campaign veterans, but my impression is that 2014 could be a great year for the GOP. If anything, these numbers are low, since they’re based on a presidential election year – Democratic turnout will be lower next year.
If you’re thinking about running for office, now’s the time to get started. For everyone else, consider supporting a legislative campaign this cycle.
More data can be found here: