Public Policy Polling: Gomez Down Four Points

(Let’s point this out again.  PPP, a DEMOCRATIC polling firm, has Gomez down 4%, and Markey WAAAAYYY under 50%.  That’s with PPP’s left-of-center “house bias”.  On January 5, 2010, Rasmussen, with it’s right-of-center ‘house bias’ had Scott Brown down 41%-50%.  Gomez is polling as well, and Markey is polling way worse, much earlier than in 2010.

I’m going to have a longer post on why conservatives need to bury the hatchet with Gomez (no, Mike, not IN him!) but for now, we have time to talk.  Today, see what you can do to help elect Gomez. – promoted by Paul R. Ferro)

Public Policy Polling, a highly respected Democratic firm which was the first organization to confirm the Suffolk Poll showing Brown close, is reporting that Ed Markey leads Gabriel Gomez by only 4 points.  

PPP’s first poll of the general election in the Massachusetts Senate special finds a close race, with Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez by a 44-40 margin.

Gomez is starting out as a pretty popular candidate, with 41% of voters rating him favorably to 27% with an unfavorable opinion. Beyond having good numbers with Republicans he’s at 42/24 with independents, and actually seen narrowly positively even by Democrats at 33/32. Voters meanwhile are more divided on Markey, with 44% holding a positive view of him to 41% with a negative one. He’s at 31/50 with independents.

For a Republican to be competitive in Massachusetts they need to win independents by a hefty margin and get a fair amount of crossover support from Democrats, and right now Gomez is doing both of those things. He’s up 47/31 with independents and winning over 21% of Democratic voters. Both those numbers suggest that some folks who supported Stephen Lynch in the primary are being a little reticent about supporting Markey in the general.

Markey’s elect number is under 50%.  This is not a good place for a Democrat to be starting in Massachusetts.  It is no secret that I was not a Gomez fan in the primary.  Gomez however is much better, even if he only agrees with me 60% of the time, than Ed Markey, who agrees with me probably closer to 10% of the time.  

This is a real race folks.  

About Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno