Brown up by 12 and Golnik/Tsongas within single digits in Mass. 3rd District

As Rob mentioned the poll in his “5 things you should know” I thought I would share the rest of the polling information.

Full disclosure: My firm, FourTier Strategies, LLC works for the Golnik campaign.


Tsongas: 52%,  Golnik:45%

Westford, MA-Golnik for Congress conducted a poll of the new 3rd Congressional District on September 18 of 549 likely voters. In a direct match up, incumbent Democrat Niki Tsongas received 52% of the vote to Jon Golnik’s 45%, with a 4% margin of error.

“We are very encouraged by the results of this poll. It shows Jon has gained momentum and support over his 2010 race and that is exciting,” said Alicia Preston, an advisor for the Golnik Campaign. “We believe the support comes from the hard work of Jon and the campaign to get his message out. The people in the 3rd district are tired of the high unemployment and the constant threats from Niki Tsongas and Washington that they are going to have more money taken from them. People can’t afford to pay for the outrageous spending addiction Congresswoman Tsongas and her colleagues have.  Businesses can’t afford to hire people and put people back to work when Congresswoman Tsongas and her colleagues keep trying to raise taxes on them.  This poll indicates more and more people are trying to find some leadership that will help put people back to work, the economy back on track, the spending at an affordable level and the debt reduced to something that can be paid back. That person is Jon Golnik.”

“Single Digits”

To: Golnik Campaign

From: Jeff Stinson and Kyle Johnson, Stinson Strategies LLC

Subject: Single digits

On September 18, 2012 our firm conducted a poll at the request of your campaign to identify the current state of your race. Our poll sampled 549 likely voters in the new Third Massachusetts Congressional District based on current voter registration data in the cities and towns that make up this district. The poll has been weighted to reflect the proper party registration breakdown based on turnout in these towns in the most previous election.

The results of our poll indicate that Jon Golnik is within 7 points of the current incumbent, Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell). The final results, after proper weighting, show Tsongas at 52% and Golnik at 45% with 3% of the electorate undecided.

These results are encouraging considering several factors. First, Jon Golnik received 42% of the vote in 2010 during his first campaign for this seat. He received the most votes of any other Republican candidate in that district since 1992. However, it was anticipated that with the addition of 11 new cities and towns to the district and limited resources, we would see either no change or a small dip in this poll. Instead, Golnik’s most recent primary exposure coupled with strong grassroots efforts seems to have pulled him within striking distance of Tsongas.

Jon Golnik has solid favorability in the district, polling at 41% favorable and only 25% unfavorable. Most notably 34% of respondents do not have an opinion of him.  This provides ample opportunity for name ID and voter outreach to close the single digit gap against Tsongas. Conversely, Niki Tsongas is at maximum name ID with only 2% of the respondents not knowing her name and 6% undecided on where they stand. This 8% represents the voters most easily swayed to vote for Golnik. This number is identical to the amount of votes needed to take the lead in this tight race.

Please see the attached results broken down by question in the order in which they were asked to the respondents. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us for more information.

Methodology: The poll was conducted on September 18, 2012 via an automatic dialing system using conventional registration based sampling procedures. Likely voters were determined using a combination of previous voting behavior and screening questions. 549 respondents were either very or somewhat likely to vote in the upcoming 2012 general election. The poll has been weighted to reflect the proper party registration breakdown based on turnout in these towns in the most previous election.

Results Below

Topline Results

If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for Barack Obama – Democrat or Mitt Romney – Republican?

Barack Obama – 52%

Mitt Romney – 44%

Undecided – 4%

If the election for US Senate were held today, who would you vote for Scott Brown – Republican, or Elizabeth Warren – Democrat?

Scott Brown – 54%

Elizabeth Warren – 42%

Undecided – 4%

If the congressional election for your district were held today, who would you vote for Jon Golnik – Republican or Niki Tsongas – Democrat?

Jon Golnik  – 45%

Niki Tsongas – 52%

Undecided – 3%

Consolidated Ballot Test:

If you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to choose between Jon Golnik – Republican and Niki Tsongas – Democrat, whom would you vote for?

Jon Golnik – 45%

Niki Tsongas – 53%

No Answer – 2%

Is your opinion of Jon Golnik generally favorable or unfavorable?

Favorable – 41%

Unfavorable – 25%

Heard of Him & Undecided – 17%

Never Heard of Him – 17%

Is your opinion of Niki Tsongas generally favorable or unfavorable?

Favorable – 57%

Unfavorable – 35%

Heard of Her & Undecided – 6%

Never Heard of Her – 2%

If you are a Democrat, press 1.  If a Republican, press 2.  If you are an independent or belong to another party press 3.

Democrat – 31%

Republican – 17%

Independent / Other – 52%

Do you identify yourself as politically being primarily very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or very conservative?

Very Liberal – 12%

Somewhat Liberal – 23%

Moderate – 36%

Somewhat Conservative  – 21%

Very Conservative – 8%

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