Money Race: Post Q2 2012 Massachusetts Federal Candidates Filing

It’s been a busy summer and I’m a little late to getting around to this, but back in July, candidates for Congress filed their campaign finance reports with the FEC. It’s a good opportunity to take a look at how the races are shaping up for Congress in Massachusetts.

I posted a similar entry back in April about how the races looked then.

Right now, the Democrats are guaranteed three wins as Republican failed to run candidates in the 1st, 2nd and 7th Districts. They are very likely to win in another four, as it appears challenges to Reps. Tsongas, Markey, Lynch and Keating aren’t nearly where they should be if wins in this state are going to be pulled off. Sean Bielat may be able to keep it close in the 4th District, as he battles with a Kennedy for the right to succeed Barney Frank in Congress. However, what these reports show most of all, is that Richard Tisei has nearly even odds in taking down longtime Rep. John Tierney in the 6th District.  

For each of the Massachusetts CD’s, I posted what cash the candidates had before, how much they raised, how much they added from their own pocket, how much they spent, and what they have left thus far. I also added a little analysis of the races as well.

1st Congressional District- Richard Neal (D-Springfield)

’08 Result: Obama 64-34%

’10 Result: Brown 49-49%

’10 Result: Patrick 51-37%

Candidate Cash on Hand Post Q1 Raised Q2 Own $ Q2 Spent Q2 Cash on Hand Post Q2 Debt Post Q2
Neal (D-Springfield) $2.429 M $365k $0 $599k $2.200 M $0
Nuciforo (D-Pittsfield) $134k $61k $0 $67k $129k $35k
Shein (D-Alford) $6k $7k $0 $6k $6k $0

Well, there is no Republican candidate in this very liberal district; Jeff Donnelly (R-Springfield) could not get the signatures. So, this is just a Democratic affair now. It appears that Neal should be in pretty good shape as the Berkshire crowd is pretty split between Shein and Nuciforo, and Neal is fundraising at a clip far in excess of his rivals. Neal is Safe in the Primary, and its Guaranteed Democratic for the fall.  

2nd Congressional District- Jim McGovern (D-Worcester)

’08 Result: Obama 60-37%

’10 Result: Brown 54-44%

’10 Result: Patrick 47-43%

Candidate Cash on Hand Post Q1 Raised Q2 Own $ Q2 Spent Q2 Cash on Hand Post Q2 Debt Post Q2
McGovern (D-Worcester) $501k $91k $0 $120k $472k $0
Feegbeh (D-Worcester) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

William Feegbeh (D) has yet to file anything with the FEC.

Here’s what I wrote in April: “Jim McGovern was moved from the old 3rd district, which stretched down to Fall River from Worcester, to the new 2nd, which stretches from the Blackstone Valley to the Pioneer Valley. This district is a bit of creative gerrymandering, as to protect McGovern by giving portions of Conservative Central Mass to the very liberal 1st district, in exchange for portions of liberal Western Mass. As a result, McGovern’s new 2nd district is about as tough as his old 3rd district.”

Apparently that protection scared away all Republican challengers. McGovern now has an easy ride of it, facing an unknown Democratic challenger who isn’t running any campaign that I have seen at least. McGovern isn’t running hard, but he really doesn’t have to. Safe for McGovern, Guaranteed Democratic.

3rd Congressional District- Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell)

’08 Result: Obama 59-39%

’10 Result: Brown 57-42%

’10 Result: Baker 48-44%

Candidate Cash on Hand Post Q1 Raised Q2 Own $ Q2 Spent Q2 Cash on Hand Post Q2 Debt Post Q2
Tsongas (D-Lowell) $316k $308k $0 $219k $405k $4k
Golnik (R-Carlisle) $66k $62k $0 $67k $60k $105k
Weaver (R-Westford) $37k $21k $4k $42k $20k $38k

Tsongas managed to attract back two of her Republican challengers from 2010, and not much has changed. Weaver and Golnik are both running sub-par campaigns, and have less than a hundred thousand dollars put away together. Tsongas on the other hand has seemed to find her groove with fundraising, she had another solid quarter, and is slowly building a little warchest. This district should be a competitive one, but the progress here indicates that it will not be this year. Safe Democratic.

4th Congressional District- OPEN

’08 Result: Obama 60-38%

’10 Result: Brown 54-45%

’10 Result: Patrick 46-46%

Candidate Cash on Hand Post Q1 Raised Q2 Own $ Q2 Spent Q2 Cash on Hand Post Q2 Debt Post Q2
Kennedy (D-Brookline) $1.124 M $1.287 M $0 $508k $1.903 M $39k
Robinson (D-Newton) $2k $75 $5k $6k $1k $13k
Brown (D) $1k $7k $0 $8k $80 $1k
Bielat (R-Norfolk) $6k $218k $0 $185k $166k $30k
Childs (R-Brookline) $36k $41k $10k $61k $26k $0
Steinhof (R-Fall River) $2k $8k $10k $15k $5k $10k

Wow! I’ve never seen a Congressional candidate rake in the cash like Kennedy. This is a fairly Democratic seat with Fall River, Newton and Brookline all within its borders, but with that sort of money, there should be a sign on every corner, an office in every town, and an easy-win for Kennedy ahead. While I think he will win, and polling agrees with me, I’m not so sure it’s going to be a blow-out. While Childs and Steinhof are running poor campaigns with almost no visibility beyond their hometowns, Bielat has signs out, and is raising a healthy amount for a Mass Republican congressional challenger. I hope he keeps this race close, and keeps the Kennedy on his toes. Likely Democratic.

5th Congressional District- Ed Markey (D-Malden)

’08 Result: Obama 66-32%

’10 Result: Coakley 55-44%

’10 Result: Patrick 54-39%

Candidate Cash on Hand Post Q1 Raised Q2 Own $ Q2 Spent Q2 Cash on Hand Post Q2 Debt Post Q2
Markey (D-Malden) $3.130 Mil $371k $0 $249k $3.252 Mil $0
Semon (R-Lexington) $3k $5k $0 $5k $3k $0
Addivinola (R-Boston) $0 $7k $9k $7k $9k $3k
Tierney (R-Framingham) $1k $0 $0 $1k $81 $146k

This is a really tough district, against a well-entrenched incumbent like Markey, and yet three Republicans are running! Folks don’t like Markey, but with Cambridge now in the district, I don’t think it matters, there are simply too many Democrats here. Addinivola and Semon are good candidates, but are probably not wise in challenging here. I hope they will run again on another level, and possibly in different communities. They have the Bielat problem from 2010, being from very Democratic boroughs. With Markey sitting on a couple million, and these guys raising good cash for a state Rep race, this one is very Safely Democratic.

6th Congressional District- John Tierney (D-Salem)

’08 Result: Obama 58-41%

’10 Result: Brown 58-41%

’10 Result: Baker 50-41%

Candidate Cash on Hand Post Q1 Raised Q2 Own $ Q2 Spent Q2 Cash on Hand Post Q2 Debt Post Q2
Tierney (D-Salem) $795k $422k $0 $524k $693k $0
Tisei (R-Wakefield) $458k $571k $0 $228k $802k $0

Daniel Fishman (Lib-Beverly) has yet to file anything with the FEC.

This may be it, the race that the GOP breaks through in what is a completely Democratic US House delegation. Tierney is raising massive amounts of cash, and Tierney is clearly running scared, spending money at a faster rate than he can raise it. This district was made more conservative in redistricting, and hopefully Tisei can capitalize on his moderate positioning, the district’s improved demographics, and Tierney’s ethical lapses for a big GOP win in the fall. I really don’t know how at this point one couldn’t label this anything other than a Toss-Up.

7th Congressional District- Michael Capuano (D-Somerville)

’08 Result: Obama 82-17%

’10 Result: Coakley 73-26%

’10 Result: Patrick 73-20%

Candidate Cash on Hand Post Q1 Raised Q2 Own $ Q2 Spent Q2 Cash on Hand Post Q2 Debt Post Q2
Capuano (D-Somerville) $429k $121k $0 $91k $459k $0
Romero (I-Malden) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Karla Romero (I-Malden) has yet to file anything with the FEC.

From April: “Nothing to see here. Massachusetts’s Minority-Majority District, which probably hasn’t voted for a Republican since the 19th Century, doesn’t even have a Republican candidate. Capuano, despite lacking a sizable warchest, is safe.”

8th Congressional District- Stephen Lynch (D-Boston)

’08 Result: Obama 58-40%

’10 Result: Brown 56-43%

’10 Result: Patrick 44-43%

Candidate Cash on Hand Post Q1 Raised Q2 Own $ Q2 Spent Q2 Cash on Hand Post Q2 Debt Post Q2
Lynch (D-Boston) $677k $106k $0 $92k $692k $0
Selvaggi (R-Boston) $8k $7k $0 $9k $6k $3k
Temperley (R-Quincy) $1k $6k $0 $4k $3k $0

This district is actually pretty favorable to a Republican, but has a very popular Democratic incumbent in Lynch, and two Republican candidates who are probably better positioned for a run for the State Legislature than Congress. Lynch isn’t running hard, but it’s probably too late for Selvaggi and Temperley to get this race in gear, barring a huge shake-up, before November. Safe Democratic.

9th Congressional District- Bill Keating (D-Bourne)

’08 Result: Obama 58-41%

’10 Result: Brown 57-42%

’10 Result: Baker 45-45%

Candidate Cash on Hand Post Q1 Raised Q2 Own $ Q2 Spent Q2 Cash on Hand Post Q2 Debt Post Q2
Keating (D-Bourne) $399k $179k $0 $58k $519k $1k
Sutter (D-Fall River) $22k $118k $0 $86k $54k $9k
Sheldon (R-Plymouth) $837 $12k $0 $13k $-550 $3k
Chaprales (R-Barnstable) $0 $30k $0 $19k $11k $0
Botelho (I-Fall River) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
White (I-Mashpee) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Daniel Botelho (I-Fall River) and Peter White (I-Mashpee) have yet to file anything with the FEC.

This is perhaps the most disappointing race in Massachusetts this fall. Keating is a weak incumbent who has been forced to move from Sharon to Quincy to Bourne to remain in this district following redistricting. Keating beat Fmr. State Rep. Jeff Perry (R-Sandwich) by a tiny margin in 2010, and really has yet to get his campaign fundraising in gear. A stronger Republican challenge could have made this a race, but a late entry from Chaprales, and a very poor fundraising effort by Sheldon have kind of tabled Republican hopes for this district. (Sheldon has negative cash right now…) Keating should survive his primary challenge with Sutter, who has had some issues in his primary challenge and poor financing, and barring a big shake-up, Keating should be safe in November as well. Safe Democratic.  

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