Dem Pollsters: Brown opens up significant lead over Warren

According to Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, Scott Brown has opened up a significant lead over Elizabeth Warren.  This is the first time he has led in their poll since July of 2011.  

PPP’s newest poll on the Massachusetts Senate race finds Scott Brown opening up a 5 point lead, 49-44. This is the first time Brown has led in one of our polls since June of 2011. Our last poll, in June of this year, found a tie and the two before that had modest leads for Elizabeth Warren.

Brown continues to do well because of his personal popularity and because voters see him as different from the Republican Party as a whole. 53% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 36% who disapprove. Incumbents with those kinds of approval numbers generally don’t lose. Brown’s approval has improved a net 14 points from March when he was at +3 (45/42). Warren’s numbers are headed in the other direction. On that poll her favorability was 46/33 and now it’s 46/43- her negatives have risen 10 points over the last five months while her positives have remained unchanged.

As the electorate gets to know Elizabeth Warren, they like her less and less.  

About Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno

  • day when the Obamaton show up at the polls, unfortunately.  

  • Outlier.

  • MerrimackMan

    I don’t get the sense that Warren is warming up to the people at all. Her ads are terrible, and there hasn’t been a moment in this campaign where she has connected to the average person in Massachusetts.

    Brown on the other hand is running a stellar campaign, and I hope he keeps it up.

    Nothing in the poll itself raises red flags. The Dem/GOP party ID’s are both a couple points low, but that balances itself out.

    The other recent poll was in July by MassINC, which had Warren up 2. They had Brown at just 38%. Obviously they weren’t pushing leaners very much. Brown has been in the 40’s in every other major polls, with the exception of the Boston Globe polls which have the same problem. This race is on the minds of voters too much for there to be 20% undecideds in a poll at this point in the campaign.

  • Vote3rdpartynow

    As you say EaBo, and as I have said many times, Elizabeth Warren is liked less the more you know her…  She truly comes off as a elitist snob that is trying to pander to the middle class.  It’s an act she can’t be convincing in.  

    Elizabeth Warren is running this race for all the wrong reasons.  For Elizabeth this is a personal thing.  She didn’t get the job as the head of the CFPB so she is trying to do an end run around Scott Brown and do the job from the Senate instead.  She doesn’t care about working in the US Senate – the only thing she crows about is fixing the banks, which would have been her job had she been appointed to head the CFPB, but she wasn’t.  

    I bet once the data from this recent poll have been analyzed they will find that her numbers among independents and ‘old school’ Democrats are falling.  They just don’t like her….

    On the other hand, they DO like Scott Brown.

  • Warren doesn’t impress the average voter.  The more we see her and hear her, the less we like her.  She hasn’t done a good job explainaing why she would make a good senator.  It’s no surprise her polling is suffering.  If this race is about Warren, she loses.

    Scott Brown has done a good job in office.  He’s kept his promise to remain independent.  He hasn’t been beholden to any faction.  He’s focused on the one issue that matters to every voter: jobs.  If this race is about Brown, Warren loses.  

    So Warren pretends that this race is not about Warren v. Brown.  She pretends that she’s running against Romney (or Ryan or Akin), when her actual opponent is much more popular in Massachusetts.  Her response to the PPP poll, as reported in the Globe, is telling: “The Republican agenda for women in America is not just wrong,” she said, standing at the Omni Parker House on Beacon Hill. “It’s dangerous.”  Translation: Republicans hate women and Brown is a Republican, ergo Brown hates women.  Never mind that Brown is the husband of a professional woman and the father of two daughters.  How long before we see the commercials of Brown morphing into Akin?  …    

    Warren is counting on a big turnout for President Obama, with most voters voting a pure slate.  I think she’s in for a rude surprise.  Massachusetts voters are a little more independent than she understands, and they often split their ballots.  I’ve spoken to a lot of people who are strongly for President Obama and just as strongly for Sen. Brown.