Money Race: Post Q1 2012 Massachusetts Federal Candidates Filing

( – promoted by Paul R. Ferro)

The First and Second Quarter Filing reports are a good prognostication of the competitiveness of US Congressional races. Last week, candidates from around the country filed their Q1 Reports with the FEC (while a good number of Massachusetts candidates did not…) For each of the Massachusetts CD’s, I posted what cash the candidates had before, how much they raised, how much they added from their own pocket, how much they spent, and what they have left thus far. I also added a little analysis of the races as well.

While the GOP looks like it will manage to put up candidates in eight of the nine district (forget about the 7th), it appears at this point, that our best hope for a Republican Congressman lies with Richard Tisei in the 6th District. Sean Bielat, Jon Golnik, and Christopher Sheldon could make things interesting, but it’s still too early to tell, things seem to be moving slower than they were in 2010 on the Congressional front here in MA.  

1st Congressional District- Richard Neal (D-Springfield)

’08 Result: Obama 64-34%

’10 Result: Brown 49-49%

’10 Result: Patrick 51-37%

Candidate Post 2011 Raised Q1 Own $ Q1 Spent Q1 Cash on Hand Post Q1 Debt Post Q1
Neal (D) $2.453 M $128k $0 $153k $2.429 M $0
Nuciforo (D) $137k $43k $0 $45k $134k $35k
Shein (D) $0 $12k $15 $6k $6k $0

Jeff Donnelly (R-Springfield) has yet to file anything with the FEC.

Most of the action in this district will be in the Democratic Primary, as Former State Senator Andrea Nuciforo (D-Pittsfield) is challenging Richard Neal (D-Springfield) in the new 1st district. The new 1st district is a conglomeration of the old 1st and 2nd district. Richard Neal was moved over to the new 1st from the old 2nd, and now will have to get acquainted with large portions of very liberal Western Mass, outside of his former base in Greater Springfield and Central Mass. While Nuciforo is a good challenger for Neal, and would be a top candidate in an open seat situation, by the looks of the campaign finance, and the fact that an even more liberal candidate is in the race, Bill Shein (D-Alford), Neal should be able to hang on. I don’t know much about the Republican candidate, Jeff Donnelly (R-Springfield), and he isn’t raising any money as of yet, which suggests his odds of winning this very Democratic district aren’t very high.

2nd Congressional District- Jim McGovern (D-Worcester)

’08 Result: Obama 60-37%

’10 Result: Brown 54-44%

’10 Result: Patrick 47-43%

Candidate Post 2011 Raised Q1 Own $ Q1 Spent Q1 Cash on Hand Post Q1 Debt Post Q1
McGovern (D) $373k $210k $0 $81k $501k $0
Eustis (R) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Richard Eustis (R-Northborough) has not filed a Q1 report. Patrick Barron (I-Worcester) has yet to file anything with the FEC.

Jim McGovern was moved from the old 3rd district, which stretched down to Fall River from Worcester, to the new 2nd, which stretches from the Blackstone Valley to the Pioneer Valley. This district is a bit of creative gerrymandering, as to protect McGovern by giving portions of Conservative Central Mass to the very liberal 1st district, in exchange for portions of liberal Western Mass. As a result, McGovern’s new 2nd district is about as tough as his old 3rd district. McGovern is raising a good bit of cash, and doesn’t seem too concerned, I haven’t seen much of a campaign apparatus on his side at all. Richard Eustis (R-Medway) is a Worcester-area attorney, but besides that, I don’t know much about him either, his campaign has also yet to raise any cash. This should be a shoe-in for Jim McGovern.

UPDATEPer Paul Ferro Richard Eustis is now running for State Rep.

3rd Congressional District- Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell)

’08 Result: Obama 59-39%

’10 Result: Brown 57-42%

’10 Result: Baker 48-44%

Candidate Post 2011 Raised Q1 Own $ Q1 Spent Q1 Cash on Hand Post Q1 Debt Post Q1
Tsongas (D) $292k $158k $0 $134k $316k $7k
Golnik (R) $2k $80k $0 $17k $66k $105k

Tom Weaver (R-Westford) has yet to file anything with the FEC.

The 3rd District is basically the old 5th District with a new extension into North Worcester County. As a result, the district votes about the same, if not a little more Conservative. Jon Golnik (R-Carlisle) and Tom Weaver (R-Westford) are at it again, minus a few of their previous GOP primary opponents. Weaver appears to be going without much of a campaign apparatus yet again, and Golnik is raising a bit of money, but nothing out of the ordinary. His debt is mostly loans from himself from the 2010 campaign. Golnik was able to keep the 2010 contest close, and Tsongas appears to be taking the 2012 campaign seriously, however, it remains to be seen if the 2012 campaign will be as competitive as two years ago. For now, this race remains Safely Democratic.

4th Congressional District- OPEN

’08 Result: Obama 60-38%

’10 Result: Brown 54-45%

’10 Result: Patrick 46-46%

Candidate Post 2011 Raised Q1 Own $ Q1 Spent Q1 Cash on Hand Post Q1 Debt Post Q1
Kennedy (D) $0 $1.318 M $0 $194k $1.124 M $50k
Robinson (D) $2k $0 $0 $0 $2k $8k
Farren (D) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Bielat (R) $6k $176k $0 $50k $133k $32k
Childs (R) $29k $41k $2k $36k $36k $0

Michael Burstein (D-Brookline), Rachel Brown (D-Quincy) and Jules Levine (D-Brookline) have yet to file anything with the FEC. Marty Farren (D-Sharon) has not filed a Q1 report. Paul Heroux (D-Attleboro) and Nicholas Bernier filed Q1 reports, but have since dropped out.

Barney Frank (D-Newton) retired, leaving the 4th district open in 2012. The new 4th district lost New Bedford, and picked up Greater Attleboro, as a result, it’s a bit more Conservative than before. The 2012 contest then quickly attracted two serious Republican candidates, Sean Bielat (R-Norfolk), the 2010 nominee who nearly toppled Frank in a banner year for the GOP, and Elizabeth Childs (R-Brookline), a recent convert to the GOP who has attracted high profile support from a number of big-named moderate Republican women. Unfortunately, the new district attracted carpetbagger, and Kennedy clan member, Joe Kennedy III (D-Brookline) to the race, who has proceeded to raise ridiculous amounts of money. His entry has pretty much cleared the field of any big name Democrats, and gives the Democrats the serious edge in the fall race. Recent polling has suggested the well-known Kennedy candidate would crush Bielat by over 30 points. While Bielat and Childs are good candidate by MassGOP standards, they will need to seriously change the dynamics of this race somehow to keep it close. My intuition suggests Bielat would be in a better position to win over the Southern part of the district against Kennedy in the fall, keeping the race closer. For now, this race is also, safely Democratic.

5th Congressional District- Ed Markey (D-Malden)

’08 Result: Obama 66-32%

’10 Result: Coakley 55-44%

’10 Result: Patrick 54-39%

Candidate Post 2011 Raised Q1 Own $ Q1 Spent Q1 Cash on Hand Post Q1 Debt Post Q1
Markey (D) $3.146 Mil $103k $0 $119k $3.130 Mil $0
Semon (R) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Frank Addivinola (R-Boston) has yet to file anything with the FEC. Jeff Semon (R-Lexington) has not filed a Q1 Report. Gerry Dembrowski (R-Woburn) filed a Q1 Report, but has since dropped out.

The new 5th district is basically the old 7th District with parts of Cambridge, represented by long-time Congressman Ed Markey (D-Malden). The 5th is a very Democratic district, failing to vote for Scott Brown. Republicans Jeff Semon and Frank Addivinola are in the race, and while they both appear to be upstanding members of the GOP, they both have yet to raise any cash, and are really up against the wall in this district. Safe Democratic.

6th Congressional District- John Tierney (D-Salem)

’08 Result: Obama 58-41%

’10 Result: Brown 58-41%

’10 Result: Baker 50-41%

Candidate Post 2011 Raised Q1 Own $ Q1 Spent Q1 Cash on Hand Post Q1 Debt Post Q1
Tierney (D) $546k $326k $0 $77k $795k $0
Tisei (R) $256k $354k $0 $156k $454k $0

Bill Hudak (R-Boxford) filed a Q1 report but has since dropped out. Daniel Fishman (Lib-Beverly) has yet to file anything with the FEC.

The 6th District is looking to be the marque Congressional race this fall. John Tierney (D-Salem) hit a bit of a snag in 2010, as his wife Patrice was sentenced to jail for tax fraud. Tierney denied knowing anything about his wife’s wrong-doing, and was challenged by Boxford Attorney Bill Hudak. While Hudak was able to give Tierney his closest race in over ten years, he wasn’t able to convince voters he was the right man for the job. Former State Senator and Lt. Governor Nominee Richard Tisei (R-Wakefield) is challenging Tierney this fall, and like Hudak, has been able to out-raise Tierney in multiple quarters, including Q1. While Tierney has a good warchest of cash saved up, after his close call in 2010, it isn’t what it used to be. Tisei is a liberal Republican, but appears to be running a very prominent and organized campaign. Additionally, the district became more Conservative through redistricting as Tewksbury and Billerica were added in. This race already has national attention, and should be a very close race. Leans Democratic.

7th Congressional District- Michael Capuano (D-Somerville)

’08 Result: Obama 82-17%

’10 Result: Coakley 73-26%

’10 Result: Patrick 73-20%

Candidate Post 2011 Raised Q1 Own $ Q1 Spent Q1 Cash on Hand Post Q1 Debt Post Q1
Capuano (D) $346k $133k $0 $50k $429k $0
Romero (I) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Karla Romero (I-Malden) has not filed a Q1 report.

Nothing to see here. Massachusetts’s Minority-Majority District, which probably hasn’t voted for a Republican since the 19th Century, doesn’t even have a Republican candidate. Capuano, despite lacking a sizable warchest, is safe.

8th Congressional District- Stephen Lynch (D-Boston)

’08 Result: Obama 58-40%

’10 Result: Brown 56-43%

’10 Result: Patrick 44-43%

Candidate Post 2011 Raised Q1 Own $ Q1 Spent Q1 Cash on Hand Post Q1 Debt Post Q1
Lynch (D) $674k $93k $0 $89k $677k $0
Selvaggi (R) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Temperley (R) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Joe Selvaggi (R-Boston) and Matt Temperley (R-Quincy) have not filed a Q1 Report.

Stephen Lynch is supposedly Massachusetts’ most conservative Congressman. That may be true, but his 11% ACU Rating doesn’t really impress me. (Scott Brown got a 62%) Stephen Lynch has been moved from the old 9th, and his district has become a bit more Conservative as it has stretched farther down the South Shore. However, Lynch is very popular in the district’s Boston portions, and shouldn’t be in too much trouble. The GOP has two candidates in the race, but both have joined relatively recently. It’s too early to say what kind of campaigns they may run, but they are definitely behind most of their national counterparts. Safe Democratic.

9th Congressional District- Bill Keating (D-Bourne)

’08 Result: Obama 58-41%

’10 Result: Brown 57-42%

’10 Result: Baker 45-45%

Candidate Post 2011 Raised Q1 Own $ Q1 Spent Q1 Cash on Hand Post Q1 Debt Post Q1
Keating (D) $305k $136k $0 $42k $399k $0
Sutter (D) $0 $55k $0 $34k $22k $24k
Sheldon (R) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Botelho (I) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
White (I) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Christopher Sheldon (R-Plymouth), Daniel Botelho (I-Fall River) and Peter White (I-Mashpee) have not filed a Q1 report.

After John Tierney, I think Bill Keating is the most vulnerable in the delegation. He had to move for a second time to avoid a primary challenge with Stephen Lynch, and now will vote from his Bourne Summer Home, and while his district got a bit more liberal from its addition of New Bedford and parts of Fall River, it lost all of Norfolk County, where Keating has been making connections for years. Christopher Sheldon (R-Plymouth) is the only Republican in the race, and got in recently, so he is a bit behind where he should be (he didn’t file a Q1 report), but with right campaign, he could make this hard for Keating. Without anything else to assess, I’m agreeing with the national prognosticators, this race is for now Safely Democratic.  

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