(This is going to be a close election. Scott can still win this. We all need to help in any way we can. – promoted by Rob “EaBo Clipper” Eno)
For those who take last year’s dismal results seriously, the UMass Lowell poll released today is no surprise. Scott Brown can be toast in November 2012. How he turns it around will say a lot about the GOP base in Massachusetts and whether they will gravitate around well-meaning but very unpopular Tea Party themes or whether they will offer a forward looking agenda extolling competition and good government. On the heels of this poll, the Tea Party contingent crowd will complain about media bias but the Tea Party is LESS popular that Occupy Wall Street according to the Herald, a group that, as the poll shows, is drawing liberal criticism.
There is little, it appears, that Scott Brown can do to turn the momentum for Liz Warren around. Next November President Obama will be at the top of the ticket. November 2012 was a prelude to what can happen if the GOP doesn’t shift its message from one of simple anger and frustration to something positive that appeals not only to social conservatives but also libertarians and independents. There is a slither of hope, however, most voters say they are open to changing their minds; Scott Brown has run a decent campaign and he is running hard. Catcalls of RINO from the backbenches aren’t going to help the junior Senator. He needs every GOP vote.
Here’s the tale of the tape:
Brown still leads Warren among independent voters by a wide margin, 53-37 percent, according to the poll. But because there are so few Republicans in Massachusetts, Brown is far short of the support from independents he needs to be competitive in the 2012 election, according to most analysts.
The poll also shows that the race remains extremely volatile, with more than half of Massachusetts voters saying they still could change their mind. Among voters who say they have definitely made up their minds, Warren leads Brown by 24-21 percent.
Should the Brown campaign, the GOP state committee and new candidates not fine-tune their message toward the center in Massachusetts, the Republican gains in the House will be at risk. One state representative recently said with Barry Obama at the top of the ticket the emphasis will not be on expansion but on protecting the frosh GOP members. A move that has been all the much harder due to redistricting.