Massachusetts State House Redistricting

(Thanks MM – promoted by Rob “EaBo Clipper” Eno)

A couple weeks later than I had hoped, I finally finished this marathon project (life got in the way again). I inputted the 2010 data for both the old and new State House districts, and I was actually pretty surprised. For most districts, there was little to no change at all. However, that is not to say there wasn’t change, a few districts (like Kieko Orrall’s and Paul Adam’s) saw drastic change, which will have big implications for the continued Republican effort to win 54 seats (1/3 of the House, which would empower a Republican Governor’s veto).

Because of the large size of the State House, I’m not going to do a seat by seat analysis, the table below is long enough without any of my bloviating. So, for conciseness, I picked out one seat to talk about as “Bad News”, and twenty-two to talk about as “Good News” (the number to get to 54 + 1). This isn’t to suggest this map is good news, it’s not. It continues a Democratic gerrymander of the State that makes our efforts harder. But, it does demonstrate that despite their best efforts there is still room to grow for Republicans in the State House.

The Bad News

17th Essex District- Paul Adams (R-Andover)

This is it folks, the bad news out of the map (other than the fact that the map is still a Democratic gerrymander). Adams’ seat was chosen to become the second Lawrence Hispanic Majority district, and it causes a big change. His district goes from 59% Brown to 53% Coakley. Baker only received 37% in the new district. Adams has decided to try and run again here in 2012, but I think he is wasting his time. He really should consider running against Senator Barry Finegold, who is holding down a much more favorable district, 58% Brown and 47% Baker district, and barely beat his Republican opponent last fall.

The Good News

Alright, well, it’s not that good of news. 30/33 Republicans were at least 90% unharmed by this map. Adams has been put into a bind, Steve Levy saw his home of Marlborough split in two, and Peter Durant lost some of his most reliable precincts. Levy should be alright considering his district now takes in more conservative areas in Northborough and Westborough, and Durant still holds down a solid 64% Brown district. The other 30 were not targeted by the Legislature, probably because the nearby Democrats didn’t want to see their districts put into any more jeopardy.

The real good news is that there remains many opportunities for Republican pick-ups in the State House. Below, I am listing what I think are the twenty-two best, which will get us to the 54 seats we need to allow our next Republican Governor to stand up to the Legislature. Bolded in the table below are the 48 seats we’d need to win to take over the State House.

22. Three Way Tie Between:

Fifteenth Essex- Linda Dean Campbell (D-Methuen)

Nineteenth Middlesex- Jim Miceli (D-Wilmington)

Thirty-Sixth Middlesex- Colleen Garry (D-Dracut)


Politically, I feel like this area is kind of like the South. Strong accents, historically Democratic, and represented by conservative Democrats despite voting pretty Republican for top of the ticket offices. All three of these incumbents are rather entrenched and would be tough to beat, but perhaps the seats are not safe enough anymore for any Democrat, and they will retire or stumble against an underdog opponent. After all Brown won 65%, 67% and 70% respectively in these three seats. Campbell lost a bit of her home turf in Methuen through redistricting, and picked up areas of Haverhill. The other two did not see any change to their seats at all.

21. Fourth Plymouth- James Cantwell (D-Marshfield)

Here’s a seat I don’t understand at all. It opened up back in 2008, and the Republicans left it uncontested, despite it being solidly Republican. Brown won 64% here. Cantwell has never been challenged, so I don’t know how entrenched he is, but judging by the top of the ticket results, I think we ought to try. Might be surprised at what we find. This district did not change under redistricting.

20. Thirty-First Middlesex- Jason Lewis (D-Winchester)

Now, Lewis easily took this seat when it opened up back in 2008 doubling up on his Republican opponent 51-25%, while an Independent pulled 24% of the vote. The same thing happened again in 2010, with Lewis pulling an unimpressive 52% of the vote. The district just received another conservative precinct in Stoneham, and gave Baker a solid 50% of the vote. If the GOP runs a candidate from Stoneham without an Indy on the ballot, I think Lewis is actually weak enough that we could knock him off. This district once sent Republican Sherman Saltmarsh (R-Winchester) to the State House. Let’s do it again.

19. Third Worcester- Stephen DiNatale (D-Fitchburg)

This district used to be represented by Emilie Goguen (D-Fitchburg), a conservative Democrat who retired back in 2006. DiNatale has not been the same, and this 59% Brown district is instead represented by a liberal Democrat. This district picked up a precinct in conservative Lunenburg, and has not been contested by a Republican since DiNatale won in 2006. I think this is a vulnerable seat for the Democrats considering its incumbent.

18. Tenth Norfolk- James Vallee (D-Franklin)

This district saw no changes in redistricting, just as many other districts of members of the leadership. Vallee represents a conservative district that gave Brown 65% of the vote. Voting with the leadership so often may not fly with this district anymore. We wouldn’t know because yet again, this district hasn’t been contested by a Republican since before the last redistricting (over ten years!).

17. Eleventh Norfolk- Paul McMurtry (D-Dedham)

Elected in a special election in 2007 as an Independent, McMurtry quickly switched parties and became a Democrat. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been contested since, and represents a pretty Republican district that gave Brown and Baker 58% and 50% respectively. This district hasn’t sent a Republican to Beacon Hill since 1980, but it is definitely time to try it again.

16. Fourth Worcester- Dennis Rosa (D-Leominster)

Traditionally Democratic Leominster has swung more to the Republicans lately than any other town, racking up 63% and 51% for Brown and Baker. Rosa has never been challenged by a Republican since his election in 2008 to fill the shoes of now Senator Jennifer Flanagan, and this district hasn’t seen a Republican since at least before the Nixon Administration. However, given the state of things in Worcester County, this should be high on the Republican’s list come next year.

15. Tenth Worcester- John Fernandes (D-Milford)

Back in Worcester County again, this Milford-based seat picked up a precinct in Medway this year, and is again, another conservative Democratic seat. Fernandes had been a pretty liberal Democrat, knocking off conservative, traditional marriage supporter Marie Parente in a 2006 primary, but has tried to posture to the right following the immigration debate regarding the horrific accident in Milford this August. Could voter dissatisfaction with the accident’s outcome and the Legislature’s lack of concern help Republicans oust Fernandes?

14. Twelfth Plymouth- Thomas Calter (D-Kingston)

This district was created in 2001 from a random selection of precincts from six towns. The district clean up a bit this redistricting, gaining all of Halifax, and is still is a very Republican seat, having given Brown 66% of the vote in 2010. Republicans lost a close 54-46% race last year, and shouldn’t let up. Calter is not a conservative Democrat and could easily been bested through a better campaign. Vinny deMacedo’s brother nearly took it with stickers when it opened up in 2006.

13. Fifth Worcester- Anne Gobi (D-Spencer)

This Central Mass district is one of the most Republican districts in the state, giving 65% and 52% to Brown and Baker. It got even better as the district picked up conservative places like Hubbardston and East Brookfield in redistricting. With a lot of new turf (25%!), its time to giving another go. Gobi’s been a tough one since she picked this seat up for the Democrats after David Tuttle (R-Barre) departed in ’02. Unlike a lot of other legislators, she has faced Republican opposition every two years, but hasn’t had a close race since 2002. Unlike many other entrenched Democrats in conservative seats though, she’s a big liberal and a bad fit for the 5th Worcester.

12. Second Barnstable- Demetrius Atsalis (D-Barnstable)

Another poor match for a conservative district is Atsalis. This district was even improved in redistricting, and now gave Brown and Baker, 61% and 51% respectively. I can even name a stellar candidate who should give it a go, James Crocker (R-Barnstable). As an unsuccessful candidate for the Senate in 2010, Crocker actually received more votes within the new district than did Atsalis. No-Brainer in my opinion.

11. Eighth Middlesex- Carolyn Dykema (D-Holliston)

Republicans didn’t take my advice in challenging Dykema in 2010. Too Bad, as Brown and Baker racked up 58% and 53% in the new district. This district lost its precinct in Medway, and picked up all of Southborough. Doesn’t matter too much. Dykema barely won this seat against Dan Haley (R-Holliston) in 2008 as failed Lt. Governor Candidate Paul Loscocco (R-Holliston) retired. The GOP should get a candidate from Hopkinton, maybe Selectman Brian Herr??

10. Second Middlesex- James Arciero (D-Westford)

After Arciero narrowly won this seat 52-48% in 2008 against Littleton School Committeeman Paul Avella, it looked like Avella would finish the deal. However, Avella pulled out of the race and Arciero went unchallenged in 2010. Avella or another GOPer should finish off what we started here. This is a prime GOP target, but Arciero, a former Panagiotakos staffer, has toed a more conservative line, perhaps the district has come to know him. No changes in redistricting, Brown and Baker took 60% and 53%.

9. First Barnstable- Cleon Turner (D-Dennis)

Ugh. After Thomas George (R-Yarmouth) decided to hang it up, Turner narrowly won this seat against Richard Neitz (R) in 2004 and 2006 with just 51% and 52%. By the time a Republican bothered to challenge it again in 2010, Turner had solidified enough support to get a 56% result. This district lost a more moderate precinct in Brewster, and picked up two conservative ones in Barnstable and Yarmouth, now giving Brown and Baker an improved 58% and 48% respectively. Time to give it another go.

8. Fifth Norfolk- Mark Cusack (D-Braintree)

I’m usually suspicious of Norfolk County, and its lingering Democratic sympathies, but Cusack needs to go. He was caught sleeping with a Rep. Adams female staffer on the House podium this year. He wasn’t challenged in 2010 by a Republican, but Brown took 60% here, and Baker defeated Patrick 44-38% with a large Cahill showing. This district didn’t change in redistricting, but we need a candidate from Braintree. All but there precincts are from there.

7. Twelfth Norfolk- John Rogers (D-Norwood)

Republican Jim Stanton lost a heart-breaker here in 2010, 54-46%, while carrying his hometown of Walpole (which is split four-ways in the new map, hmmm). He’s already declared to run again against the ethically-challenged, Finneran-ally Rogers. But Rogers is well-known, and liked by his fellow conservative Democrats in Norwood. The district saw no changes in redistricting, and gave Brown and Baker 60% and 50% respectively. No reason to lose here.

6. Fifth Plymouth- Rhonda Nyman (D-Hanover)

It remains inconceivable to me that a Democrat still represents this McCain-won district. Brown took 68% here. Nyman’s husband passed away last year, but she filled in for him, carrying the seat over a first-time Republican candidate 53-47%. An experienced Republican from Rockland would do great in this seat.

5. Second Franklin- Denise Andrews (D-Orange)

This district got a face-lift in redistricting as this Western Mass district expanded east, and lost its most liberal towns, including Greenfield. It still has a chunk of liberal towns in Franklin County, but its more of a Worcester County district now, improving its Brown result from 46% to 57%, and now just narrowly voting for Deval Patrick 43-43%. Even before the changes, Orange Republican Steven Adam was able to hold liberal Andrews to just 52% of the vote. Should he run again, and with the new conservative eastern side of the district, I think we can lift this one off the Democrats.

4. Thirteenth Essex- Theodore Speliotis (D-Danvers)

Danvers Republican Dan Bennett was 500 votes away from knocking off long-time incumbent Ted Speliotis in 2010. This district lost Topsfield, and picked up half of Middleton and another precinct in more conservative West Peabody. But it still managed to give 64% and 54% to Brown and Baker. Hopefully, coming off off his close win, Bennett can seal the deal, and return Peter Torkildsen’s distrct to the Republican fold.

3. Fourteenth Essex- David Torrisi (D-North Andover)

A Democrat from North Andover? Yeah, pretty unbelievable, but it was possible when this district took in South Lawrence. With most of South Lawrence now in the 17th Essex, Torrisi is more vulnerable than ever. He lost his hometown in 2010, hanging on by 600 votes thanks to Lawrence. He lost half of his precincts in Lawrence, lost his worst one in North Andover, and added some turf from traditionally conservative Democratic Methuen and Bradford. This district was horribly gerrymandered to give Torrisi, a close ally of the leadership, a chance to stick around. However, the loss of most of Lawrence allowed it to slightly improve, now having given Brown and Baker 60% and 50%. Hopefully the Republicans can recruit Kevin Begley (R-North Andover) to run again, or find a Selectman or School Committeeman from North Andover to give it another go. This district sent Barbara Cuomo (R-North Andover) to the legislature for most of the mid-1990’s.

2. Second Hampden- Brian Ashe (D-Longmeadow)

Ashe stole in this seat in 2008 after longtime Rep. Mary Rogeness (R-Longmeadow) retired. The district included two precincts in Springfield, which saved him yet again in 2010, giving him a 518 vote win over Longmeadow Selectman Marie Angelides. The Springfield precincts have been removed, and an extra precinct was added in East Longmeadow. Without Springfield, Angelides would have sneaked out a 51 vote win. There is no reason for her not to try it again, and return this district to the GOP. Brown and Baker took 61% and 48% here in 2010.

1. Second Essex- Harriett Stanley (D-West Newbury)

No surprise here. Stanley won her ninth term here in 2010, by a surprisingly close 52-48% margin over Robert Finneran (R-Newbury). She has already called it quits, and will leave this seat open come next year. Hopefully Finneran will run again and finish what he started. The district improved in redistricting, losing Rowley and a precinct in Haverhill and adding the rest of Georgetown and two precincts in the Republican Stronghold of Boxford. Brown and Baker took 63% and 55% here in 2010.

County Representative Party   Old     New     Old     New  
        Coakley Brown   Coakley Brown   Patrick Baker   Patrick Baker
BARNSTABLE, DUKES AND NANTUCKET                            
1st Barnstable Cleon Turner D   42% 57%   42% 58%   45% 47%   44% 48%
2nd Barnstable Demetrius J. Atsalis D   40% 59%   38% 61%   42% 49%   40% 51%
3rd Barnstable David Vieira R   38% 61%   39% 60%   41% 50%   42% 49%
4th Barnstable Sarah Peake D   50% 50%   49% 50%   52% 41%   52% 41%
5th Barnstable Randy Hunt R   35% 64%   34% 66%   38% 53%   36% 54%
Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Timothy Madden D   57% 42%   57% 42%   55% 37%   55% 37%
BERKSHIRE                            
1st Berkshire Gailanne Cariddi D   71% 29%   70% 29%   70% 22%   71% 22%
2nd Berkshire Paul Mark D   63% 35%   62% 36%   65% 25%   63% 25%
3rd Berkshire Tricia Farley-Bouvier D   70% 29%   69% 29%   73% 20%   73% 20%
4th Berkshire William Smitty Pignatelli D   66% 33%   65% 34%   69% 24%   69% 24%
BRISTOL                            
1st Bristol F. Jay Barrows R   33% 66%   34% 65%   35% 55%   36% 55%
2nd Bristol George T. Ross R   35% 64%   35% 64%   37% 51%   37% 51%
3rd Bristol Shaunna O’Connell R   42% 56%   41% 57%   44% 43%   43% 44%
4th Bristol Steve Howitt R   37% 62%   35% 64%   40% 51%   38% 53%
5th Bristol Patricia Haddad D   44% 55%   44% 55%   47% 42%   47% 42%
6th Bristol David B. Sullivan D   48% 51%   52% 46%   52% 38%   57% 34%
7th Bristol Kevin Aguiar D   59% 39%   60% 38%   62% 27%   63% 27%
8th Bristol Paul Schmid D   51% 48%   47% 51%   54% 36%   52% 38%
9th Bristol Christopher Markey D   45% 54%   48% 51%   53% 38%   57% 35%
10th Bristol William M. Straus D   40% 59%   44% 54%   46% 45%   51% 40%
11th Bristol Robert Koczera D   52% 47%   52% 46%   58% 32%   58% 31%
12th Bristol Keiko Orrall R   40% 59%   32% 67%   45% 44%   34% 54%
13th Bristol Antonio Cabral D   64% 34%   64% 34%   70% 22%   70% 22%
14th Bristol Elizabeth Poirier R   30% 69%   30% 69%   33% 57%   33% 58%
ESSEX                            
1st Essex Michael A. Costello D   45% 54%   45% 54%   46% 45%   46% 45%
2nd Essex Harriett Stanley D   37% 62%   36% 63%   37% 54%   37% 55%
3rd Essex Brian Dempsey D   41% 58%   41% 58%   42% 47%   42% 47%
4th Essex Bradford Hill R   38% 61%   38% 61%   39% 55%   39% 54%
5th Essex Ann-Margaret Ferrante D   49% 50%   49% 50%   49% 42%   49% 42%
6th Essex Jerry Parisella D   44% 55%   44% 55%   45% 46%   45% 46%
7th Essex John D. Keenan D   53% 46%   53% 46%   53% 37%   53% 37%
8th Essex Lori Ehrlich D   48% 51%   48% 51%   45% 50%   45% 50%
9th Essex Donald Wong R   36% 63%   37% 63%   35% 54%   36% 54%
10th Essex Robert Fennell D   54% 45%   53% 45%   55% 35%   55% 35%
11th Essex Steven Walsh D   55% 44%   55% 44%   55% 35%   55% 35%
12th Essex Joyce Spiliotis D   41% 58%   41% 57%   42% 46%   42% 46%
13th Essex Theodore C. Speliotis D   35% 64%   35% 64%   37% 54%   36% 54%
14th Essex David Torrisi D   41% 59%   39% 60%   44% 48%   41% 50%
15th Essex Linda Dean Campbell D   34% 65%   34% 65%   36% 54%   35% 55%
16th Essex Marcos Devers D   81% 18%   67% 32%   83% 13%   72% 22%
17th Essex Paul Adams R   40% 59%   53% 46%   42% 51%   57% 37%
18th Essex James J. Lyons, Jr. R   38% 62%   36% 63%   38% 55%   37% 57%
FRANKLIN                            
1st Franklin Stephen Kulik D   64% 34%   65% 34%   61% 25%   62% 24%
2nd Franklin Denise Andrews D   52% 46%   42% 57%   53% 33%   43% 43%
HAMPDEN                            
1st Hampden Todd Smola R   36% 63%   36% 63%   36% 49%   36% 49%
2nd Hampden Brian Ashe D   39% 60%   38% 61%   42% 47%   41% 48%
3rd Hampden Nicholas Boldyga R   33% 65%   33% 65%   35% 49%   36% 49%
4th Hampden Donald Humason, Jr. R   36% 62%   36% 62%   38% 47%   38% 47%
5th Hampden Michael F. Kane D   55% 43%   55% 43%   59% 28%   59% 28%
6th Hampden Michael Finn D   41% 57%   41% 58%   42% 42%   42% 43%
7th Hampden Thomas Petrolati D   42% 57%   43% 55%   41% 43%   42% 42%
8th Hampden Joseph Wagner D   45% 53%   45% 52%   43% 38%   43% 38%
9th Hampden Sean Curran D   54% 44%   54% 45%   56% 30%   55% 30%
10th Hampden Cheryl Coakley-Rivera D   72% 26%   73% 25%   77% 15%   76% 16%
11th Hampden Benjamin Swan D   77% 22%   74% 24%   78% 15%   75% 17%
12th Hampden Angelo Puppolo D   41% 58%   41% 58%   43% 44%   44% 44%
HAMPSHIRE                            
1st Hampshire Peter Kocot D   68% 31%   68% 31%   65% 23%   65% 23%
2nd Hampshire John Scibak D   54% 44%   53% 46%   53% 34%   52% 35%
3rd Hampshire Ellen Story D   73% 26%   78% 21%   69% 20%   74% 16%
MIDDLESEX                            
1st Middlesex Sheila Harrington R   36% 63%   36% 63%   36% 55%   36% 55%
2nd Middlesex James Arciero D   40% 60%   40% 59%   40% 53%   40% 53%
3rd Middlesex Kate Hogan D   45% 54%   45% 54%   45% 47%   45% 47%
4th Middlesex Steven L. Levy R   42% 57%   42% 57%   43% 48%   43% 48%
5th Middlesex David Linsky D   48% 51%   48% 51%   48% 44%   48% 44%
6th Middlesex Chris Walsh D   52% 47%   51% 48%   52% 40%   52% 41%
7th Middlesex Tom Sannicandro D   49% 50%   50% 49%   50% 43%   50% 42%
8th Middlesex Carolyn Dykema D   41% 59%   41% 58%   41% 53%   41% 53%
9th Middlesex Thomas Stanley D   54% 45%   52% 48%   54% 39%   52% 41%
10th Middlesex John J. Lawn D   54% 45%   53% 46%   54% 36%   53% 37%
11th Middlesex Kay Khan D   69% 30%   68% 31%   68% 28%   67% 28%
12th Middlesex Ruth Balser D   67% 32%   68% 32%   67% 30%   67% 29%
13th Middlesex Tom Conroy D   55% 44%   51% 48%   54% 42%   51% 44%
14th Middlesex Cory Atkins D   55% 44%   55% 44%   55% 41%   55% 41%
15th Middlesex Jay R. Kaufman D   58% 41%   59% 40%   57% 36%   59% 36%
16th Middlesex Thomas Golden, Jr. D   40% 58%   40% 58%   41% 48%   41% 48%
17th Middlesex David Nangle D   45% 53%   45% 53%   47% 42%   47% 42%
18th Middlesex Kevin Murphy D   51% 47%   51% 47%   54% 36%   54% 36%
19th Middlesex James Miceli D   32% 67%   32% 67%   33% 55%   33% 55%
20th Middlesex Bradley Jones, Jr. R   35% 65%   34% 66%   35% 58%   34% 59%
21st Middlesex Charles A. Murphy D   42% 57%   42% 57%   43% 49%   43% 49%
22nd Middlesex Marc Lombardo R   34% 65%   34% 65%   33% 54%   33% 54%
23rd Middlesex Sean Garballey D   64% 35%   63% 36%   63% 30%   63% 30%
24th Middlesex William Brownsberger D   66% 33%   65% 34%   66% 28%   65% 29%
25th Middlesex Alice Wolf D   87% 12%   87% 12%   85% 11%   85% 11%
26th Middlesex Timothy J. Toomey, Jr. D   77% 22%   78% 21%   75% 18%   75% 17%
27th Middlesex Denise Provost D   76% 23%   77% 22%   74% 18%   75% 17%
28th Middlesex Stephen Smith D   53% 46%   52% 46%   52% 36%   51% 36%
29th Middlesex Jon Hecht D   67% 32%   71% 28%   67% 27%   71% 23%
30th Middlesex James J. Dwyer D   41% 58%   41% 58%   40% 50%   40% 50%
31st Middlesex Jason Lewis D   44% 55%   44% 55%   44% 50%   43% 50%
32nd Middlesex Paul Brodeur D   46% 53%   47% 52%   45% 48%   46% 47%
33rd Middlesex Christopher Fallon D   55% 44%   56% 43%   52% 38%   53% 37%
34th Middlesex Carl Sciortino D   66% 33%   66% 33%   63% 27%   63% 27%
35th Middlesex Paul Donato D   54% 45%   54% 45%   51% 38%   51% 38%
36th Middlesex Colleen Garry D   30% 70%   30% 70%   31% 57%   31% 57%
37th Middlesex Jennifer Benson D   47% 52%   47% 52%   47% 45%   48% 45%
NORFOLK                            
1st Norfolk Bruce Ayers D   47% 52%   47% 52%   44% 35%   44% 35%
2nd Norfolk Tackey Chan D   46% 52%   46% 53%   40% 33%   40% 33%
3rd Norfolk Ronald Mariano D   41% 58%   41% 58%   38% 41%   38% 41%
4th Norfolk James Murphy D   38% 61%   38% 61%   38% 45%   38% 46%
5th Norfolk Mark Cusack D   39% 60%   39% 60%   38% 44%   38% 44%
6th Norfolk William C. Galvin D   41% 58%   41% 58%   42% 48%   42% 48%
7th Norfolk Walter Timilty D   52% 47%   52% 47%   55% 36%   55% 36%
8th Norfolk Louis Kafka D   46% 54%   46% 54%   47% 45%   47% 45%
9th Norfolk Daniel Winslow R   30% 70%   30% 70%   32% 59%   32% 59%
10th Norfolk James Vallee D   34% 65%   34% 65%   37% 54%   37% 54%
11th Norfolk Paul McMurtry D   41% 58%   41% 58%   41% 50%   41% 50%
12th Norfolk John H. Rogers D   38% 61%   38% 61%   39% 50%   39% 50%
13th Norfolk Denise Garlick D   48% 52%   48% 52%   48% 48%   48% 48%
14th Norfolk Alice Peisch D   49% 51%   49% 51%   49% 48%   49% 48%
15th Norfolk Frank Smizik D   77% 22%   77% 22%   76% 20%   76% 20%
PLYMOUTH                            
1st Plymouth Viriato Manuel deMacedo R   36% 63%   36% 63%   39% 51%   40% 50%
2nd Plymouth Susan Williams Gifford R   36% 62%   35% 63%   38% 50%   38% 50%
3rd Plymouth Garrett Bradley D   40% 59%   41% 59%   42% 49%   43% 49%
4th Plymouth James Cantwell D   35% 64%   35% 64%   38% 52%   38% 52%
5th Plymouth Rhonda Nyman D   31% 68%   31% 68%   34% 53%   34% 53%
6th Plymouth Daniel K. Webster R   32% 68%   32% 67%   34% 55%   34% 55%
7th Plymouth Geoff Diehl R   31% 68%   31% 68%   32% 53%   32% 53%
8th Plymouth Angelo D’Emilia R   31% 68%   31% 68%   34% 55%   34% 55%
9th Plymouth Michael Brady D   54% 45%   61% 37%   56% 35%   63% 28%
10th Plymouth Christine Canavan D   43% 56%   42% 57%   43% 45%   43% 45%
11th Plymouth Geraldine Creedon D   47% 52%   43% 56%   49% 43%   45% 46%
12th Plymouth Thomas Calter D   33% 66%   33% 66%   35% 54%   35% 53%
SUFFOLK                            
1st Suffolk Carlo Basile D   54% 45%   54% 45%   55% 35%   55% 35%
2nd Suffolk Eugene O’Flaherty D   55% 44%   55% 44%   59% 33%   59% 33%
3rd Suffolk Aaron M. Michlewitz D   64% 35%   63% 36%   66% 29%   64% 31%
4th Suffolk Nicholas Collins, Sr. D   46% 53%   45% 54%   48% 39%   47% 39%
5th Suffolk Carlos Henriquez D   88% 11%   90% 9%   88% 8%   90% 6%
6th Suffolk Russell Holmes D   89% 11%   90% 9%   90% 7%   91% 6%
7th Suffolk Gloria Fox D   89% 10%   89% 10%   91% 7%   91% 6%
8th Suffolk Martha M. Walz D   70% 29%   69% 30%   61% 27%   60% 28%
9th Suffolk Byron Rushing D   75% 24%   77% 22%   76% 20%   78% 18%
10th Suffolk Edward F. Coppinger D   53% 46%   54% 45%   55% 37%   55% 36%
11th Suffolk Liz Malia D   92% 7%   90% 9%   91% 5%   89% 7%
12th Suffolk Linda Dorcena Forry D   78% 21%   82% 17%   80% 14%   84% 11%
13th Suffolk Martin Walsh D   66% 33%   61% 38%   68% 23%   62% 26%
14th Suffolk Angelo Scaccia D   66% 33%   67% 32%   68% 24%   68% 24%
15th Suffolk Jeffrey Sanchez D   81% 18%   81% 18%   80% 15%   80% 15%
16th Suffolk Kathi-Anne Reinstein D   44% 54%   44% 54%   44% 43%   44% 43%
17th Suffolk Kevin Honan D   68% 31%   68% 30%   67% 26%   68% 25%
18th Suffolk Michael Moran D   65% 34%   65% 34%   65% 28%   65% 28%
19th Suffolk Robert DeLeo D   46% 52%   46% 52%   46% 43%   46% 43%
WORCESTER                            
1st Worcester Kimberly Ferguson R   33% 66%   33% 66%   37% 54%   39% 53%
2nd Worcester Richard Bastien R   38% 61%   37% 61%   39% 48%   38% 49%
3rd Worcester Stephen DiNatale D   40% 59%   40% 59%   44% 45%   43% 46%
4th Worcester Dennis Rosa D   36% 63%   36% 63%   39% 51%   39% 51%
5th Worcester Anne Gobi D   35% 64%   33% 65%   37% 50%   36% 52%
6th Worcester Peter Durant R   33% 66%   34% 64%   37% 52%   38% 50%
7th Worcester Paul Frost R   34% 64%   34% 65%   39% 50%   39% 51%
8th Worcester Kevin Kuros R   30% 68%   32% 66%   33% 55%   33% 54%
9th Worcester George N. Peterson, Jr. R   34% 65%   33% 66%   36% 55%   35% 56%
10th Worcester John Fernandes D   37% 62%   37% 62%   38% 53%   38% 53%
11th Worcester Matthew Beaton R   40% 59%   40% 59%   43% 50%   43% 50%
12th Worcester Harold Naughton, Jr. D   36% 63%   36% 63%   40% 51%   40% 51%
13th Worcester John J. Mahoney D   49% 50%   51% 48%   58% 37%   60% 35%
14th Worcester James O’Day D   46% 52%   46% 52%   54% 38%   54% 38%
15th Worcester Vincent Pedone D   55% 43%   56% 43%   61% 31%   62% 30%
16th Worcester John Fresolo D   50% 48%   50% 48%   58% 33%   58% 33%
17th Worcester John Binienda D   45% 53%   45% 53%   52% 39%   52% 39%
18th Worcester Ryan Fattman R   32% 67%   30% 69%   33% 54%   33% 56%

SUMMARY

OLD NEW
Brown 70%+ 2 2
Brown 65-70% 18 21
Brown 60-64% 26 25
Brown 55-69% 27 25
Brown 50-54% 24 23
Coakley 63 64
     
  OLD NEW
Baker 55-60% 13 14
Baker 50-54% 33 33
Baker <50% 26 25
Patrick <50% 19 18
Patrick >50% 69 70

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