Voter intensity is a tool used to predict elections and turnout. In the years leading up to 2006 and 2008 voter intensity was with with the Democrats. You saw them take the congress in 2008 and the presidency in 2008. In the years leading up to 2010 the issues voters cared most about led up to the historic gains in the House of Representatives for Republicans.
Diving deeper into the UMass Lowell/ Boston Herald poll, we can see, that on the key issue of the economy, voters overwhelmingly prefer Scott Brown to Elizabeth Warren.
The angry mood of the voters was one of the major reasons for Brown’s upset win in 2010, and the new poll indicates most Massachusetts voters still are not happy with the direction the country is headed, with 62 percent saying things are “seriously off on the wrong track.”
Among those voters, Brown leads Warren by 48-34 percent, according to the poll.
Nearly half of all registered voters also say they think the nation’s economy is getting worse, not better, and Brown is beating Warren among those voters by 21 points.
This race, like the special election, is going to be close. It will be our job as activists to bring our voters to the polls. We are helped with an electorate that seemingly trusts Scott Brown on the economy, and doesn’t trust the democratic elites. That is one statistic that must be keeping Doug Rubin, and the rest of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, up at night.