Part 1- Massachusetts Fair Redistricting (State House)

( – promoted by Rob “EaBo Clipper” Eno)

Part 1- State House

Part 2- State Senate

Part 3- US House

Part 4- Governor’s Council

As you might know, there is a great tool out there, Dave’s Redistricting Application, in which you can redistrict any state you want yourself. As you might have already noticed, redistricting reform is one of my pet issues, so when I saw that the new 2010 Census data was put up, I thought I would give it a shot to redistrict the Legislature fairly (which needs a lot of work). I will probably make up some maps for the Congressional districts (the various options), and Governor’s Council later, but I thought I would get the hard work out of the way. My general rules were to keep as many Incumbents in their districts as possible (not always), to avoid splitting municipalities when possible, and to keep districts within 5% of their optimal population (per previous court rulings). I think I did a pretty good job; I split far fewer towns than does the current map, and even created more Minority-Majority districts. Yes, more Republican friendly districts have been created, but the current map is an out-right Democratic gerrymander. By fairly drawing the map and removing the gerrymandering, Republicans will be the obvious beneficiary.

So, here is the State House. The State Senate will come very soon. WARNING, IT’S LONG. (160 Districts…)

Tell me what you think!

STATEWIDE

Here’s the old map as a reference:  Mass House Map 2004

Because of uneven population growth, and long delayed shifting of seats to faster growing areas, any new map is going to have to put a few Incumbent Reps with one another. I tried to reduce the number as much as possible, and even out the pain (proportionally) for the GOP and Democrats. Currently, there will be anywhere from 5 to 6 match-ups, and correspondingly, 5-6 open seats under this map in the State House. That’s pretty good considering there are 160 Districts, and in the 2001 plan, there were 4 districts with multiple sitting State Reps.

The four new match-ups would be:

Gailanne Cariddi (D-North Adams) vs. Paul Mark (D-Hancock)

Paul Adams (R-Andover) vs. Jim Lyons (R-Andover)

Robert Koczera (D-New Bedford) vs. Stephen Canessa (D-New Bedford)

Bruce Ayers (D-Quincy) vs. Marty Walsh (D-Dorchester)

Additionally, the winner of the 10th Middlesex Special Election (TBA) would face off against a neighboring Incumbent, and should poor Peter Durant (R-Spencer) win, he would face off against Anne Gobi (D-Spencer). Geraldo Alicea (D) would get to keep his seat all to himself (I know, it sucks, but it cleans the districts up in that area).

New House Seats would be based out of:

South Lawrence (A New Hispanic Majority District)

Middleborough/Lakeville (A Republican District)

Foxborough/Walpole (Another Republican District)

Greenfield (A Safe Democratic District)

Somerville (A Safe Democratic District)

Again, if Durant wins, his seat would be opened up, though he could certainly move into Charlton to keep it.

Here’s the Districts by County:

CAPE AND THE ISLANDS (6 Districts)



Barnstable doesn’t get any new districts, and in fact, lost population over the last decade. The 1st, 2nd and 3rd had to move west, and now the 5th takes in all of Bourne. The 4th was short on population, and now takes in all of Brewster, and Harwich had to be split instead. In total, Districts are much cleaner, but shouldn’t change much politically. The 1st and 2nd remain prime targets for the GOP.

1st Barnstable- Cleon Turner (D-Dennis)

Dennis, Harwich (Pcts 1,4), Yarmouth (Pcts 1-5,7)

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

2nd Barnstable – Demetrius Atsalis (D-Barnstable)

Barnstable (Pcts 1-6,8-11,13), Yarmouth (Pct 6)

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

3rd Barnstable – David Vieira (R-Falmouth)

Barnstable (Pcts 7,12), Falmouth (Pcts 4-5,7-9), Mashpee

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

4th Barnstable – Sarah Peake (D-Provincetown)

Brewster , Chatham, Eastham, Harwich (Pcts 2-3), Orleans, Provincetown, Truro, Wellfleet

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

5th Barnstable – Randy Hunt (R-Sandwich)

Bourne, Sandwich

Safe Republican (Brown 65%+)

Dukes, Barnstable and Nantucket- Timothy Madden (D-Nantucket)

Aquinnah, Chilmark, Edgartown, Gosnold, Oak Bluffs, Tisbury, West Tisbury, Falmouth (Pct 1-3, 6), Nantucket

Safe Democratic

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

BERKSHIRE COUNTY (Loses 1 Seat to 3)



Berkshire County is currently overrepresented, and to do so the Democrats have chopped up Franklin County badly. The County lost a significant amount of folks, so I think it is time to clean it up, especially with two new Freshman Representatives. The 2nd and 3rd are basically the old 3rd and 4th Berkshire Districts, the 1st expands south toward Pittsfield. The remaining area around Dalton is put in the new 1st Franklin District. All of these seats are insanely Democratic.

1st Berkshire – Gailanne Cariddi (D-North Adams) vs. Paul Mark (D-Hancock)

Adams, Cheshire, Clarksburg, Florida, Hancock, Lanesborough, New Ashford, North Adams, Savoy, Williamstown

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

2nd Berkshire – Christopher Speranzo (D-Pittsfield)

Pittsfield (W1-W4, W5 Pct A, W6-W7)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

3rd Berkshire – William Pignatelli (D-Lenox)

Alford, Becket, Egremont, Great Barrington, Lee, Lenox, Monterey, New Marlborough, Mount Washington, Otis, Pittsfield (W5 B), Richmond, Sandisfield, Sheffield, Stockbridge, Tyringham, West Stockbridge, Chester, Blandford, Tolland

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

BRISTOL COUNTY (Loses 1 Seat to 13)



Bristol needed to lose a seat thanks to the slow growing areas of Fall River and New Bedford, both of which are very overrepresented by a Democratic gerrymander. Fall River is easier to carve up with its suburban districts, so New Bedford’s Canessa and Koczera took the fall. Most of the rest of the districts are pretty much the same, though Taunton is split up differently to try to keep Shaunna O’Connell in the district. (Looks bad though…) Best and only real pickup opportunity in Bristol County after the 2010 elections, and this redistricting plan is William Straus’ 12th District. Though it’s a GOP friendly district, I think he would be too hard to beat.

1st Bristol – Jay Barrow (R-Mansfield)

Easton (Pct 4-5), Mansfield, Norton (Pct 3-5)

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

2nd Bristol – George Ross (R-Attleboro)

Attleboro (W1-W2, W3 Pct A, W4-W6)

Leans Republican

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

3rd Bristol – Shaunna O’Connell (R-Taunton)

Taunton (W1 Pct B, W2 Pct B, W3-W5, W7-W8)

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

4th Bristol – Steven Howitt (R-Seekonk)

Rehoboth, Seekonk, Swansea

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

5th Bristol – Patricia Haddad (D-Somerset)

Dighton, Taunton (W1 Pct A, W2 Pct A, W6), Somerset

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

6th Bristol – David Sullivan (D-Fall River)

Berkley, Fall River (W7 Pcts B-D, W8 Pcts A-C, W9), Freetown

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

7th Bristol – Kevin Aguiar (D-Fall River)

Fall River (W1 Pcts B-D, W2-W4, W7 Pct A)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

8th Bristol – Paul Schmid (D-Westport)

Fall River (W1 Pct A, W5-W6, W8 Pct D), Westport

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50%-55%)

9th Bristol – Christopher Markey (D-Dartmouth)

Dartmouth, New Bedford (W5 Pcts D-E,G)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

10th Bristol – William Straus (D-Mattapoisett)

Acushnet, Fairhaven, New Bedford (W1 Pcts D,F), Marion, Mattapoisett

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

11th Bristol – Robert Koczera (D-New Bedford) vs. Stephen Canessa (D-New Bedford)

New Bedford (W1 Pcts A-C, E,G, W2, W3 Pcts B-G)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

12th Bristol – Antonio F. D. Cabral (D-New Bedford)

New Bedford (W3 A, W4, W5 Pcts A-C,F, W6)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

13th Bristol – Elizabeth Poirier (R-North Attleborough)

Attleboro (W3 Pct B), North Attleborough, Norton (Pct 1-2)

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

ESSEX COUNTY (18 Districts)



Essex County stays at 18, and sees some minor shifts to balance out communities. Donald Wong is a big winner with this map, picking up all of Lynnfield. Ted Speliotis is not likely to enjoy this map, as Danvers is lumped with Conservative Middleton and Topsfield. Many changes are needed in the heavily gerrymandered Greater Lawrence area. I created a 2nd Hispanic District out of Lawrence, and 2 precincts out of Methuen (which needed to lose a precinct).  The Lynn-based 11th Essex is now also, a Hispanic Plurality district. Unfortunately, my hometown can’t hold up two Republican Incumbents, so a nice clean, United Andover district is going to have to do. Bonus is that David Torrisi of North Andover, gets put in a Bush-’04 District, and will certainly be in hot water come 2012. Next best pickup chances are the 2nd district held by Harriett Stanley, and the 15th District held by Linda Dean Campbell.

1st Essex – Michael Costello (D-Newburyport)

Amesbury, Newburyport, Salisbury

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

2nd Essex – Harriett Stanley (D-West Newbury)

Georgetown (Pct 1), Groveland, Haverhill (W2 Pct 2, W4, W7), Merrimac, West Newbury

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

3rd Essex – Brian Dempsey (D-Haverhill)

Haverhill (W1, W2 Pct 1,3, W3, W5, W6)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

4th Essex – Brad Hill (R-Ipswich)

Essex, Hamilton, Ipswich, Newbury, Rowley, Wenham

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

5th Essex – Ann-Margaret Ferrante (D-Gloucester)

Gloucester, Manchester-by-the-Sea, Rockport

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

6th Essex – Jerald Parisella (D-Beverly)

Beverly

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

7th Essex – John Keenan (D-Salem)

Salem

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

8th Essex – Lori Ehrlich (D-Marblehead)

Lynn (W3 Pcts 2-4), Marblehead, Swampscott

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

9th Essex – Donald Wong (R-Saugus)

Lynnfield, Peabody (W5 Pct 2, W6), Saugus (Pcts 1, 4-9)

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

10th Essex – Robert Fennell (D-Lynn)

Lynn (W1, W2 Pct 1-2, W3 Pct 1, W5 Pct 1, W6 Pct 1, W7)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

11th Essex – Steven Walsh (D-Lynn)

Lynn (W2 Pct 3-4, W4, W5 Pct 2-4, W6 Pct 2-4),  Nahant

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Plurality Hispanic/Latino

12th Essex – Joyce Speliotis (D-Peabody)

Peabody (W1-W4, W5 Pct 1,3)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

13th Essex – Ted Spiliotis (D-Danvers)

Danvers, Middleton, Topsfield

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

14th Essex – David Torrisi (D-North Andover)

Boxford, Georgetown (Pct 2), North Andover

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

15th Essex – Linda Dean Campbell (D-Methuen)

Methuen (Pct 1,3-5,7-12)

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

16th Essex – Marco Devers (D-Lawrence)

Lawrence (Ward A, Ward B, Ward C, Ward D Pct 4)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Majority Hispanic/Latino

17th Essex – OPEN

Lawrence (Ward D Pct 1-3, Ward E, Ward F), Methuen (Pct 2,6)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Majority Hispanic/Latino

18th Essex – Paul Adams (R-Andover) vs. Jim Lyons (R-Andover)

Andover, Tewksbury (Pct 3, 3A)

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

FRANKLIN COUNTY (2 Seats)



The Current districts in Franklin County cover a lot of territory that is not actually in Franklin County. This map shifts the district back onto the County, and splits the county East-West instead of North-South. No matter, the Democrats are still heavily favored in both.

1st Franklin- Stephen Kulik (D-Worthington)

Ashfield, Buckland, Charlemont, Colrain, Conway, Deerfield, Hawley, Heath, Leyden, Monroe, Rowe, Shelburne, Sunderland, Whately, Dalton, Hinsdale, Peru, Washington, Windsor, Chesterfield, Cummington, Goshen, Middlefield, Plainfield, Worthington

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

2nd Franklin- OPEN

Bernardston, Erving, Greenfield, Gill, Leverett, Montague, New Salem, Northfield, Shutesbury, Warwick, Wendell

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

HAMPDEN COUNTY (12 Seats)- FIXED Per Comment



Not a whole lot of changes for Hampden County. The 2nd District leaves Monson, and picks up the rest of East Longmeadow. This will be the GOP’s top target in the area. Petrolati’s district also leaves Springfield (due to lack of population in Springfield), and takes in Granby and Belchertown. He’ll be fine there, but if it ever came open, it would be a competitive race. Otherwise, the map is pretty much the same, the 6th, 8th and 12th have pickup potential, but are realistically very traditionally Democratic.

1st Hampden- Todd Smola (R-Palmer)

Brimfield, Holland, Monson, Palmer, Wales, Ware, Hardwick

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

2nd Hampden- Brian Ashe (D-Longmeadow)

East Longmeadow, Hampden, Longmeadow, Springfield (W6 Pcts B,D)

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

3rd Hampden- Nicholas Boldyga (R-Southwick)

Agawam, Granville, Montgomery, Russell, Southwick

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

4th Hampden- Donald Humason (R-Westfield)

Westfield

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

5th Hampden- Michael Kane (D-Holyoke)

Holyoke

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Majority Hispanic/Latino

6th Hampden- Michael Finn (D-West Springfield)

Chicopee (W2 Pcts A-B, W4 Pcts A-C, W5 Pct B), West Springfield

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

7th Hampden- Thomas Petrolati (D-Ludlow)

Ludlow, Belchertown, Granby

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

8th Hampden- Joseph Wagner (D-Chicopee)

Chicopee (W1, W2 Pct C-D, W3, W6-W9)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

9th Hampden- Sean Curran (D-Springfield)

Chicopee (W5 Pct A), Springfield (W2, W5 Pct C, H, W7 Pct H, W8 Pct A, D-G)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

10th Hampden- Cheryl Rivera (D-Springfield)

Springfield (W1, W3 Pcts A-C,F-H, W6 Pcts A,C,E,F)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Majority Hispanic/Latino

11th Hampden- Benjamin Swan (D-Springfield)

Springfield (W3 Pcts D,E, W4, W5 Pcts A,B,E,F, W8 Pcts B,C,H)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Plurality African-American

12th Hampden- Angelo Puppolo (D-Springfield)

Springfield (W5 Pcts D,G, W6 Pcts G,H, W7), Wilbraham

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

HAMPSHIRE COUNTY (3 Seats)



Not a whole lot of changes here, the 1st and 2nd needed to grow, and the 3rd needed to contract. All are super-liberal.

1st Hampshire- Peter Kocot (D-Northampton)

Huntington, Northampton, Southampton, Westhampton, Williamsburg

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

2nd Hampshire- John Scibak (D-South Hadley)

Easthampton, Hadley, Hatfield, South Hadley

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

3rd Hampshire- Ellen Story (D-Amherst)

Amherst, Pelham

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

MIDDLESEX COUNTY (Loses 1 Seat to 36 Seats)





Middlesex County sees a number of small to moderate changes, but most of the seats merely expanded or contracted due to population changes. The former Waltham-based 10th District is now the Watertown-based districts held by Jonathan Hecht, as the Waltham-Newton area contracted in population. The districts in that area are still somewhat ugly, but a little better than before. Chelmsford is now split into two, instead of four. The former 37th District of Middlesex county is now a Worcester County district, and the Concord-based 14th takes in all of Acton. The Newton based districts now roughly correspond to the Newton North and South High School districts. Brad Jones takes in both of the Readings completely now, as Lynnfield needed to be dropped due to huge population growth in that area. Additionally, this map sees the addition of a new Somerville based district. Timothy Toomey’s district correspondingly moves entirely within Cambridge. Arlington is now completely in the 23rd District, and West Medford will now be represented by Carl Sciortino. Otherwise, most of the districts are similar to todays . In general, not too many changes, but the GOP will probably benefit from a more competitive atmosphere out of Chelmsford (2nd District), and the drawing out of the 37th Middlesex deeper into Worcester County. Other top targets for the GOP would be the 8th (unchanged), 19th (almost unchanged), 21st (almost unchanged), and the 30th (United Woburn).

1st Middlesex- Sheila Harrington (R-Groton)

Ayer, Dunstable, Groton, Littleton, Pepperell

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

2nd Middlesex- James Arciero (D-Westford)

Chelmsford (Pcts 1,4,5,7,9), Westford

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

3rd Middlesex- Kate Hogan (D-Stow)

Hudson, Maynard, Stow, Bolton

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

4th Middlesex- Steven Levy (R-Marlborough)

Marlborough, Southborough (Pct 2)

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

5th Middlesex- David Linsky (D-Natick)

Framingham (Pct 9), Natick, Sherborn

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

6th Middlesex- Chris Walsh (D-Framingham)

Framingham (Pcts 1-8, 10-12)

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

7th Middlesex- Tom Sannicandro (D-Ashland)

Ashland, Framingham (Pcts 13-18)

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

8th Middlesex- Carolyn Dykema (D-Holliston)

Holliston, Hopkinton, Medway (Pcts 1,4), Southborough (Pcts 1,3)

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

9th Middlesex- Thomas Stanley (D-Waltham)

Waltham (W1, W4, W5 Pct 2, W6-W8, W9 Pct 1)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

10th Middlesex- Jonathan Hecht (D-Watertown)

Newton (W1 Pct 3), Waltham (W5 Pct 1, W9 Pct 2), Watertown

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

11th Middlesex- Kay Khan (D-Newton)

Newton (W5, W6, W7 Pcts 1,3-4, W8)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

12th Middlesex- Ruth Balser (D-Newton)

Newton (W1 Pcts 1-2,4, W2-W4, W7 Pct 2)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

13th Middlesex- Thomas Conroy (D-Wayland)

Concord (Pct 4), Lincoln, Sudbury, Wayland

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

14th Middlesex- Cory Atkins (D-Concord)

Acton, Boxborough, Concord (Pct 1-3,5)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

15th Middlesex- Jay Kaufman (D-Lexington)

Lexington, Waltham (W2, W3 Pct 1)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

16th Middlesex- Thomas Golden (D-Lowell)

Lowell (W2 Pcts 1-2, W5, W6, W7 Pcts 1-2, W9)

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

17th Middlesex- David Nangle (D-Lowell)

Lowell (W1, W2 Pct 3, W4 Pct 2-3, W10, W11), Tewksbury (Pct 1)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

18th Middlesex- Kevin Murphy (D-Lowell)

Chelmsford (Pcts 2-3,6,8), Lowell (W3, W4 Pct1, W7 Pct 3, W8)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

19th Middlesex- James Miceli (D-Wilmington)

Tewksbury (Pcts 1A, 2, 2A, 4, 4A), Wilmington

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

20th Middlesex- Bradley Jones (R-North Reading)

North Reading, Reading

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

21st Middlesex- Charles Murphy (D-Burlington)

Bedford, Burlington, Carlisle

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

22nd Middlesex- Marc Lombardo (R-Billerica)

Billerica

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

23rd Middlesex- Sean Garballey (D-Arlington)

Arlington

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

24th Middlesex- William Brownsberger (D-Belmont)

Belmont, Cambridge (W9, W11 Pct 1), Waltham (W3 Pct 2)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

25th Middlesex- Alice Wolf (D-Cambridge)

Cambridge (W4 Pct 3, W6 Pct 2, W7, W8, W10, W11 Pcts 2-3)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

26th Middlesex- Timothy Toomey (D-Cambridge)

Cambridge (W1, W2, W3 Pcts 1,3, W4 Pct 1, W5)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

27th Middlesex- Denise Provost (D-Somerville)

Somerville (W2 Pct 3, W3 Pcts 2-3, W4 Pct 3, W5-W6, W7 Pct 1)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

28th Middlesex- Stephen Stat Smith (D-Everett)

Everett

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

29th Middlesex- OPEN

Cambridge (W3 Pct 2, W4 Pct 2, W6 Pcts 1-3), Somerville (W1, W2 Pcts 1-2, W3 Pct 1, W4 Pcts 1-2)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

30th Middlesex- James Dwyer (D-Woburn)

Stoneham (Pct 3), Woburn

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

31st Middlesex- Jason Lewis (D-Winchester)

Stoneham (Pcts 1-2, 4-7), Winchester

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

32nd Middlesex- Paul Brodeur (D-Melrose)

Melrose (W1-W4, W6 Pct 1), Wakefield

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

33rd Middlesex- Christopher Fallon (D-Malden)

Malden (W1, W2, W3 Pct 1, W4 Pct 2, W5, W6 Pct 1, W7)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

34th Middlesex- Carl Sciortino (D-Medford)

Medford (W4-W7, W8 Pct 2), Somerville (W7 Pcts 2-3)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

35th Middlesex- Paul Donato (D-Medford)

Malden (W3 Pct 2, W4 Pct 1), Medford (W1-W3, W8 Pct 1), Melrose (W5, W6 Pct 2, W7)

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

36th Middlesex- Colleen Garry (D-Dracut)

Dracut, Tyngsborough

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

NORFOLK COUNTY (15 Seats)



Probably the worst county of Massachusetts to redistrict. There is no easy way to keep this map clean, and with most Incumbents in their districts. The Western portion of the County is overpopulated,  and the Eastern portion was unpopulated. A shift was really needed west, but multiple Incumbents would be disrupted without ripping all of the towns apart. This is really the cleanest way to go about it, giving a district to South Walpole/Foxborough (Solid GOP area), and putting North Quincy with Dorchester. Ultimately, someone needed to be thrown under the bus, based on population it was easiest for one of the Quincy Reps. This change allows the map not to change that significantly, and I think the rest of the Reps would be quite happy. Most vulnerable Democrats remain John Rogers and Paul McMurtry. The Franklin-based 10th, and the Weymouth and Braintree based 1st and 4th would also be interesting areas for competitive races.

1st Norfolk- James Murphy (D-Weymouth)

Weymouth (Pcts 1-14)

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

2nd Norfolk- Tackey Chan (D-Quincy)

Quincy (W1, W3 Pcts 1-2,4-5, W5)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

3rd Norfolk- Ronald Mariano (D-Quincy)

Braintree (Pcts 5-7), Quincy (W2, W4)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

4th Norfolk- Mark Cusack (D-Braintree)

Avon, Braintree (Pcts 1-4,8-12), Holbrook

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

5th Norfolk- Walter Timilty (D-Milton)

Milton, Randolph (Pcts 6-8)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

6th Norfolk- William Galvin (D-Canton)

Canton, Randolph (Pcts 1-5)

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

7th Norfolk- Louis Kafka (D-Stoughton)

Sharon, Stoughton (Pcts 1-2,4-8)

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

8th Norfolk- OPEN

Foxborough, Medfield (Pcts 3-4), Millis (Pcts 1-2), Walpole (Pcts 3-6)

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

9th Norfolk- Daniel Winslow (R-Norfolk)

Medway (Pcts 2-3), Millis (Pct 3), Norfolk, Plainville, Wrentham

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

10th Norfolk- James Vallee (D-Franklin)

Bellingham (Pcts 1-3), Franklin

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

11th Norfolk- Paul McMurtry (D-Dedham)

Dedham, Westwood

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

12th Norfolk- John Rogers (D-Norwood)

Norwood, Walpole (Pcts 1-2,7-8)

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

13th Norfolk- Denise Garlick (D-Needham)

Dover , Medfield (Pcts 1-2), Needham

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

14th Norfolk- Alice Hanlon Peisch (D-Wellesley)

Wellesley, Weston

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

15th Norfolk- Frank Israel Smizik (D-Brookline)

Brookline (Pcts 1-3, 7-14)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

PLYMOUTH COUNTY (13 Seats)



Plymouth County sees some minor adjustments as some areas grew significantly, and others did not. Susan Giffords get a safer seat adding in Plympton and Rochester after being pushed out of the Cape (A little ugly to keep towns intact). Rhonda Nyman’s fast growing district is forced to lose Norwell, and a portion of Hanover. She becomes a little safer, adding more moderate South Weymouth. Webster’s seat leaves Duxbury entirely and takes in Norwell, which will make his elections smoother. Diehl loses Abington and takes in ultra-Republican East and West Bridgewater. The Brockton districts are slightly rearranged to create a plurality African-American district based out of Central Brockton. Finally, a new district is created out of Lakeville and Middleborough, and should be an easy GOP pickup. The GOP should look to putting the pressure on Bradley, Cantwell, Nyman and Calter.

1st Plymouth- Vinny deMacedo (R-Plymouth)

Plymouth (Pcts 4-12,14)

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

2nd Plymouth- Susan Giffords (R-Wareham)

Carver, Plympton, Rochester, Wareham

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

3rd Plymouth- Garrett Bradley (D-Hingham)

Hingham, Hull, Scituate (Pct 3), Cohasset

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

4th Plymouth- James Cantwell (D-Marshfield)

Marshfield, Scituate (Pcts 1-2,4-6)

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

5th Plymouth- Rhonda Nyman (D-Hanover)

Hanover (Pcts 1,3,4), Rockland, Weymouth (Pcts 15-18)

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

6th Plymouth- Daniel Webster (R-Pembroke)

Hanover (Pct 2), Hanson, Norwell, Pembroke

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

7th Plymouth- Geoff Diehl (R-Whitman)

East Bridgewater, West Bridgewater, Whitman, Easton (Pcts 3,6)

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

8th Plymouth- Angelo D’Emilia (R-Bridgewater)

Bridgewater, Raynham

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

9th Plymouth- Michael Brady (D-Brockton)

Brockton (W2, W3 Pct B, W4 Pcts A-C, W5 Pcts A,C, W7 Pcts A,B)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Plurality African-American

10th Plymouth- Christine Canavan (D-Brockton)

Abington, Brockton (W5 Pcts B,D, W6, W7 Pct D)

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

11th Plymouth- Geraldine Creedon (D-Brockton)

Brockton (W1, W3 Pcts A,C,D, W4 Pct D, W7 Pct C), Easton (Pcts 1-2), Stoughton (Pct 3)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

12th Plymouth- Thomas Calter (D-Kingston)

Duxbury, Kingston, Plymouth (Pcts 1-3,13)

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

13th Plymouth- OPEN

Halifax, Lakeville, Middleborough

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

SUFFOLK COUNTY (19 Seats)



Many of the Suffolk County districts remain the same. The 2nd dumps Charlestown into the 3rd, making the 3rd a little more competitive. The Dorchester districts are rearranged, as half of Walsh’s district is exchanged for North Quincy. Walz now completely represents the Back Bay and Beacon Hill. This map preserves 3 African-American Majority districts, 2 Hispanic/Latino Districts, and 3 other minority-majority districts, which will increase the number of minority districts in Suffolk County. Republicans won’t be too competitive in the immediate Boston area though, but their best, but long shots would be the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 10th, 18th and 19th. The rest are outrageously liberal.

1st Suffolk- Carlo Basile (D-East Boston)

Boston (W1 Pcts 1-14)

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

Majority Hispanic/Latino

2nd Suffolk- Eugene O’Flaherty (D-Chelsea)

Chelsea, Revere (W1 Pct 3, W2 Pct 3)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Majority Hispanic/Latino

3rd Suffolk- Aaron Michlewitz (D-North End)

Boston (W2, W3 Pcts 1-4,6,8)

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

Safe Democratic

4th Suffolk- Nick Collins (D-South Boston)

Boston (W1 Pcts 15, W6, W7, W13 Pct 7)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

Safe Democratic

5th Suffolk-Carlos Tony Henriquez (D-Dorchester)

Boston (W8 Pcts 2,5,6, W13 Pcts 1,2,4,5,6,9, W15 Pcts 1,3,4,6-9, W16 Pcts 1,4,6)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Plurality African-American

6th Suffolk- Russell Holmes (D-Mattapan)

Boston (W14 Pcts 1-4,6-7,10,12,13, W15 Pcts 2,5, W16 Pct 3, W17 Pcts 1-3,5-8)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Majority African-American

7th Suffolk- Gloria Fox (D-Roxbury)

Boston (W8 Pcts 3,4,7, W9 Pcts 3-5, W11 Pcts 1-3, W12)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Majority African-American

8th Suffolk- Martha Walz (D-Back Bay)

Boston (W3 Pct 5, W5)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

9th Suffolk- Byron Rushing (D-South End)

Boston (W3 Pct7, W4 Pcts 1-9, W8 Pct 1, W9 Pcts 1-2)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

10th Suffolk- Edward Coppinger (D-West Roxbury)

Boston (W18 Pct 23, W20)

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

11th Suffolk- Elizabeth Malia (D-Jamaica Plain)

Boston (W10 Pcts 4,8,9, W11 Pcts 9-10, W19 Pcts 1,3-6,8-9), Brookline (Pcts 4-6, 15-16)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

12th Suffolk- Linda Dorcena Forry (D-Dorchester)

Boston (W14 Pcts 5,8,9,11,14, W17 Pcts 4,9-14, W18 Pcts 1-6,21)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Majority African-American

13th Suffolk- Martin Walsh (D-Dorchester) vs. Bruce Ayers (D-Quincy)

Boston (W13 3,8,10, W16 Pcts 2,5,7-12), Quincy (W3 Pct 3, W6)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

14th Suffolk- Angelo Scaccia (D-Hyde Park)

Boston (W18 Pcts 7-20,22, W19 Pcts 10)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Plurality African-American

15th Suffolk- Jeffrey Sanchez (D-Jamaica Plain)

Boston (W10 Pcts 1-3,5-7,10, W11 Pcts 4-8, W19 Pcts 2,7,11-13)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Minority-Majority

16th Suffolk-  Kathi-Anne Reinstein (D-Revere)

Revere (W3 Pcts 1-2, W4, W6), Saugus (Pcts 2,3,10), Malden (W6 Pct 2, W8)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

17th Suffolk- Kevin Honan (D-Brighton)

Boston (W21 Pcts 6-16, W22 Pcts 3,8-10)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

18th Suffolk- Michael Moran (D-Brighton)

Boston (W21 Pcts 1-5, W22 Pcts 1-2,4-7,11-13)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

19th Suffolk- Robert DeLeo (D-Winthrop)

Revere (W1 Pcts 1-2, W2 Pcts 1-2, W3 Pct 3, W5), Winthrop

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

WORCESTER COUNTY (Adds 2 to 20 Seats)



Worcester was the fastest growing County in Massachusetts, and with nearby shrinking and slow-growth counties, two on-the-border districts found themselves in the County (the 37th Middlesex and 2nd Franklin). These districts held by Denise Andrews and Jennifer Benson  and both will move decisively to the right, giving the GOP two pickup opportunities. The 15th District in Worcester moves into the Downtown and becomes a Minority Majority District. The currently vacant 6th District loses its arm into Spencer (and Durant’s home unfortunately). Fattman and Kuros trade Webster and Bellingham.  Beyond those changes, much of the county’s districts remain the same. Worcester has a plethora of potential GOP targets (beyond 2012 and with this map), including the new 19th and 20th, are the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 10th and 12th districts.

1st Worcester- Kimberly Ferguson (R-Holden)

Holden, Paxton, Princeton, Sterling, Westminster

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

2nd Worcester- Richard Bastien (R-Gardner)

Ashburnham, Gardner, Winchendon, Ashby

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

3rd Worcester- Stephen DiNatale (D-Fitchburg)

Fitchburg

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

4th Worcester- Dennis Rosa (D-Leominster)

Leominster

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

5th Worcester- Anne Gobi (D-Spencer)

Brookfield, East Brookfield, New Braintree, North Brookfield, Oakham, Rutland, Spencer, Warren, West Brookfield

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

6th Worcester- Geraldo Alicea (D-Southbridge)

Charlton, Southbridge, Sturbridge

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

7th Worcester- Paul Frost (R-Auburn)

Auburn, Millbury, Oxford (Pcts 1-3)

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

8th Worcester- Kevin Kuros (R-Uxbridge)

Blackstone, Douglas, Millvale, Uxbridge, Bellingham (Pcts 4-5)

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

9th Worcester- George Peterson (R-Grafton)

Grafton, Northbridge, Upton

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

10th Worcester- John Fernandes (D-Milford)

Hopedale, Mendon, Milford

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

11th Worcester- Matthew Beaton (R-Shrewsbury)

Shrewsbury, Westborough (Pcts 4-5)

Leans Republican (Brown 55-60%)

12th Worcester- Harold Naughton (D-Clinton)

Berlin, Clinton, Northborough, Westborough (Pcts 1-3)

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

13th Worcester- John Mahoney (D-Worcester)

Worcester (W1 Pcts 1-4, W3 Pcts 2-4, W9 Pcts 1,2,5, W10 Pcts 1-2)

Usually Democratic (Coakley 50-55%)

14th Worcester- James O’Day (D-West Boylston)

Boylston, West Boylston, Worcester (W1 Pct 5, W2, W3 Pcts 1,5)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

15th Worcester- Vincent Pedone (D-Worcester)

Worcester (W4 Pcts 1-3, W6 Pct 1, W8 Pcts 1,2,4,5 W10 Pcts 3-5)

Solidly Democratic (Coakley 55%+)

Plurality Hispanic/Latino

16th Worcester- John Fresolo (D-Worcester)

Worcester (W4 Pcts 4,5, W5, W6 Pcts 2-5)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

17th Worcester- John Binienda (D-Worcester)

Leicester, Worcester (W7, W8 Pct 3, W9 Pcts 3-4)

Leans Democratic (Brown 50-55%)

18th Worcester- Ryan Fattman (R-Sutton)

Dudley, Oxford (Pct 4), Sutton, Webster

Solidly Republican (Brown 65%+)

19th Worcester- Jennifer Benson (D-Lunenburg)

Harvard, Lancaster, Lunenburg, Shirley, Townsend

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

20th Worcester- Denise Andrews (D-Orange)

Athol, Barre, Hubbardston, Petersham, Philipston, Royalston, Templeton, Orange

Usually Republican (Brown 60-65%)

Solidly Republican: 23

Usually Republican: 25

Leans Republican: 15

Leans Democratic: 33

Usually Democratic: 14

Solidly Democratic: 49

Minority-Majority Districts: 15

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