Public Policy Polling: Brown in good position

Public Policy Polling has come out with it’s first poll for the 2012 reelection campaign of Senator Scott Brown, and things look really good for the First Class Senator.

As Scott Brown’s first year in the Senate comes to a close he remains an extremely formidable political presence and leads five hypothetical 2012 reelection opponents by margins ranging anywhere from 7 to 19 points.

Vicki Kennedy (48-41) and Deval Patrick (49-42) do the best against Brown, each trailing by 7 points. Ed Markey trails by 10 (49-39), Mike Capuano does by 16 (52-36), and Stephen Lynch does by 19 (49-30).

Brown is one of the most popular Senators in the country, with 53% of voters approving of his job performance and only 29% disapproving. He continues to have incredible appeal to independents, with whom his approval spread is 61/25. He also breaks nearly even among Democrats with 35% approving and 41% disapproving of what he’s done so far. The only other Republican Senators PPP’s polled on this year with that much appeal to Democrats are Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Lindsey Graham. What sets Brown apart from that trio is he’s managed to generate that popularity across party lines without antagonizing voters in his own party- Republicans give him a 74/13 approval.

The Democratic establishment in Massachusetts has underestimated Scott Brown at every turn.  They are doing the same today by thinking he’s vulnerable.  While this will be a bruising campaign season, the Senator is well loved by the people and is in a very good position for reelection in 2012.

About Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno

  • Thanks for posting this Rob – I have been waiting for something like this to come out.  The great part is that PPP is considered a Democratic polling firm, so people won’t be quick to dismiss this.

    I wonder if they will post this on boston.com?  I think I already know the answer to that…  but if they were going to post it, may I suggest replacing Joan Venocchi’s column with it?  I can’t even count the amount of hit pieces she’s done on Senator Brown!

  • Governor Baker, Lieutenant Governor Tisei, Treasurer Polito, Auditor Connaughton, Congressman Perry, Congressman Golnik, and State Senator Spadafora all agree.

  • two years is a long time in politics, and Scott has a lot of time to antagonize voters or ingratiate himself with them.

    If asked today if I “approve” or “disapprove” of Scott Brown, I’d say I approve. But if he were in an election against Mike Capuano, I’d vote against him in a second.  

  • And as Cap found a while ago, he needs to figure out how to make people in MA know who he is and what he’s done. Two years ago, Deval Patrick was dead in the water, and you might be reminded who’s about to be inaugurated again.

    George W. Bush looked like toast in 2004, and he was reelected. Russ Feingold was really popular two years ago. Where is he now?

    I’m just saying that these hypotheticals are just that. They aren’t based in any reality except the one that has to fill a 24 hour news cycle on a slow day.

  • Yeah, its too early for this, but its important.

    First, it proves that Scott Brown knows how to navigate the waters in Mass better than anyone else in the GOP ranks. I’ve been disappointed in a couple of votes, but I understand it. National GOP forces and local amateur Tea Party activists need to put a lid on it. They have no clue. He needs indies to win. He doesnt need to bone up his conservative bone fides. He doesn’t need are barbs from local conservatives threatening primary challenges or threatening to sit home because he is not Jim “Single Moms Shoul Not Be Allowed To Becom Teachers” DeMint. He doesn’t need Mark Levin calling him an A-Hole on air and telling the country it would be no different if Coakley was elected.

    It also provides hope that, despite the poor performance of GOP candidates in 2010, GOP candidates can still win here. After 2010, its understandable if state GOP candidate recruitment regresses back to 2008 levels. No one will want to run if it is assumed Republicans will automatically lose, but this shows that Brown shows he is still a force and not a lam duck. It will help recruitment and fundraising efforts.

    Also, it helps provide a blueprint for future GOP candidates. I understand candidates have to be themselves. But Brown does a lot of little things that work. It was a bit shocking for me to hear Sean Bielat distancing himself from Brown, while trying to win in the 4th. Hey, Sean, Scott won the fourth. The Tea Party Express is full of clueless yahoos who thought Sharon Angle was a good candidate and Christine O’Donnell could win in Delaware. The blueprint is there, use it next time.

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