Politico: Midterm elections offer grim omen for Sen. Brown

We need to be ready.

Brown was an obvious Democratic target for 2012. He’s one of just 10 Republicans up for reelection next cycle – compared with 23 Democrats – and the only first-termer running in a blue state.

He’s an even more inviting opponent now, as Massachusetts Democrats once demoralized by the January special election celebrate Patrick’s win – and look to the campaign against Brown as the next rallying point.

Interesting analysis and take from several Mass. politicos:


Tim Vercellotti, director of polling at Western New England College, underscored that point: “Before last week, we could have thought of the January election as sort of an earthquake in Massachusetts. Now it seems more like just a slight bump in the road.”

“If you’re looking at this, if you’re the Brown folks, there’s nothing in these numbers that should really scare you, like there’s some shift in the electorate. The anti-Democrat, anti-Beacon Hill vote is still there,” argued one Republican involved in the state, noting that Brown “remains extremely popular. His biggest challenge is just the turnout you’re going to have in a presidential year.”

“Democrats outnumber Republicans by such wide numbers there that it’s difficult for any Republican to win,” said University of New Hampshire pollster Andrew Smith. “I think he has to look at that and say, for him to win reelection in 2012, it’s going to be very difficult. It’s going to be very expensive. He’s going to be campaigning from now on.”

We need to be ready.

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