Boston Globe/UNH: Patrick 43%, Baker 39%, Cahill 8%, Stein 2%

Posted by: Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie October 24, 2010 46 Comments

( – promoted by Rob “EaBo Clipper” Eno)

http://www.boston.com/news/pol…

Governor: Patrick 43%, Baker 39%, Cahill 8%, Stein 2%

Treasurer: Grossman 39%, Polito 37%

Auditor: Bump 33%, Connaughton 32%

Attorney General: Coakley 56%, McKenna 35%

Congressional Ballot Test:  Dem 47%, GOP 35%

Q1 (Alcohol Tax Rollback): Yes 37%, No 52%

Q2 (“Affordable Housing”): Yes 24%, no 58%

Q3 (Sales Tax Rollback): Yes 43%, No 50%

The Boston Globe also did their Congressional endorsements today.  They endorsed every Democrat in every race.  Odd, I thought contributions to party organizations were limited to $5,000.

I find this poll very encouraging.  Here are a few notes:

  • Cahill Voter 2nd choice:  Baker 46%, Patrick 22%, Stein 13%.  3rd Party candidates traditionally lose much of their support on election day when trailing.
  • Baker does better among those voters who will definitely vote.
  • Baker supporters are more excited about the election.
  • Baker leads big among those very interested in the election and trails among those voters not interested at all.
  • …and of course undecided voters traditionally break 2:1 for the challenger.

These factors demonstrate the overall enthusiasm gap that is working in favor of all Republicans this cycle.

FULL SCRIBD POLLING DATA BELOW THE FOLD….

About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie

  • Admittedly, I was starting to get depressed recently, but these figures make me excited about the next week — which is going to be intense!  We can work with 4-points.

    GO CHARLIE AND RICHARD!  WELCOME TO MASSACHUSETTS, GOV. CHRISTIE!

  • Polito Grossman now a dead heat.

    Why do I have a sneaky suspicion Cahill’s been promised a clerk magistrate job if Deval wins?

  • The Boston Globe also did their Congressional endorsements today.  They endorsed every Democrat in every race.



    We are all, of course, totally stunned that a hack like Keating (D-wherever he needs to be from) and crooks like Frank (D-FannieMae) and Tierney (D-“doesn’t know” his wife is getting millions of $$ in kickbacks) get the endorsement of the Boston Globe-Democrat.  Right?

    In other news, water is wet.

  • They endorsed Marty Lamb!    “For those who don’t share McGovern’s communist – BG views, Republican nominee Marty Lamb, a real estate lawyer, is a good option. Of all the

    citizen-politicians who emerged after the economic collapse, Lamb shows the most potential”  “He supports a slate of targeted tax breaks intended to help small businesses, and favors extending the Bush tax cuts for all.  But he maintains that, if elected, he won’t vote in lockstep with his party’s leaders.  He manages to be both a forceful critic and a voice of reason.” “Conservatives and others looking for a complete change can feel good about supporting Lamb,”  

  • I don’t believe the response on the repeal 40B question.  The Globe phrased it as the “affordable housing law” and offered a circular question.  I would note that just about every politician that has opined on this issue favors repeal including Concord Representative Cory Atkins who said:  http://concord.patch.com/artic…

    Atkins: I would vote to repeal Chapter 40B. It is my understanding that we do not have a housing problem, we have a demographics problem. The Commonwealth has fewer inhabitants yet we seem to require more housing. This dilemma is caused by a house originally designed to house five or six people but now housing one or two. The problem with 40B is that no one likes it, but we would have no affordable housing without it.

    If there is one rule in Massachusetts politics, it’s the beautiful people always win.  I predict 40B goes down in a landslide (huge majority for repeal)  

  • nomad943

  • Charlie.  One week left, and when are you going to start running a real campaign.

    You can’t win attacking the independent, and assuming everyone hates the governnor.  You have to differentiate yourself as a person worthy of our vote.  If you haven’t yet done that for me, a strong fiscal conservative, then you will lose!

    Stand up, take a risk, be Chris Christie.  tell people what you will cut, be firm, be straong. Argue your arguemnent from a place of strength.

    You are trying to coast in, and it will not work. I’m writing because I want you to win, I want you to stop Deval. But, I have no excitement to vote for you.

    What can your campaign do to do that?  And if you can’t, because you have such a limp personality…then get Scott Brown attached to your hip and travel together for the rest of the campaign.

    You keep doing what you are doing, you will lose.  It breaks my heart that in this favorable environment, we put up the worst candidate possible.

  • Bump even have a CHANCE against Mary Connaughton?  I know that this is the Boston “pink-stain” Globe we are talking about, but SERIOUSLY?  Bump over Mary Z?  No way!

  • Turnout will be higher in the south and north shores as the Congressional races pull out a higher turnout. That’s good news for Baker.

    The greater Boston area has fewer “hot” races. Does anyone think Menino is working hard for Deval? It’s not happening.  The blank ballots of motivated Democratic voters in the primary is the telling signal of how tepid the support of Patrick’s failed Administration is among the Dems.

    In elections like 1990, undecided voters break against incumbents by a 3-1 to 4-1 margin. The 2-1 yardstick of undecided voters is a “normal” election year. I don’t think that this is a normal year.

  • ….that it’s a Globe poll.

  • Patrick’s favorable/unfavorable rating is plus 6 (49/43), while Baker is -2 (38/40).   Hard to win when you only have a favorable score of 38.

    All those negative ads didn’t help.

  • If I see another MTA ad I may puke. If I see the dopey cookie lady from Watertown I may puke. I do wonder if she even understands the content of the cruise ship ad. As for the MTA, I wonder how the avergae rank and file MTA member feels.  

  • I just don’t think they have the ability to endorse a GOP candidate in a federal election these past few years.  They might endorse an indie, a DEM or no one.  But when is the last time they endorsed a GOP candidate for POTUS, Rep, or Senator?  How about even governor?  I think they spend more time figuring out who their one or two token GOP candidates will be.  And will always be Auditor, or SOS…some down ballot race.

  • Vincent Errichetti

    Is this a Paul ferro approved poll?  

  • But the larger charge that he pushed to give federally backed mortgages to less-qualified borrowers isn’t all that it seems: The Bush administration, not Frank, was focused on raising the number of buyers in its “ownership society”

    Blame Bush.  Always blame Bush.

  • a endorsement from the boston globe for a republican is the kiss of death.please stop advocating for the boston globe to endorse a republican.republican candidate’s for elective office due not need affirmative action from the boston globe.republicans believe in the free market of ideas and will win on the merits.

  • Republican Ram Rod Radio

    Time is slip slip slipping away.