Baker Internals put race a dead heat, but Baker holds strong lead among most motivated voters

MEMORANDUM

TO:                  BAKER FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN

FROM:            NEIL NEWHOUSE B PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

SUBJECT:      RECENT BAKER POLL DATA

DATE:            OCTOBER 28, 2010

We just came out of the field with a 600 sample of likely voters over the last two nights (October 26-27) for the Baker campaign.  The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4% in 95 out of 100 cases.

           Key Findings

1.      The race is an absolute dead heat between Baker and Patrick.

Both Charlie Baker and Deval Patrick are tied with 40% of the vote, with Cahill receiving 10% of the vote and Stein 3%.

2.      Among higher interest voters, Baker has a lead.

Among the 76% of our sample who rate their interest in the election between 8-10 on a 1-10 scale, Charlie has a 45%-39%-8%-2% lead over his opponents.  In fact, this is the same kind of intensity disparity we saw during the Scott Brown/Martha Coakley race – just as we saw higher intensity for Scott’s candidacy give him an edge on Election Day, the same should be true for Charlie.

This mirrors the Globe’s recent poll:

“The survey found that 43 percent of likely Democratic voters are depressed about the election, while 76 percent of the Republicans are excited.” – Boston Globe, October 24, 2010

3.      Undecided voters are not big Deval Patrick fans.

While just 6% of voters in the state say they are still undecided, it’s pretty clear that they are unlikely to end up in Deval Patrick’s camp – by a wide 68%-16% margin, these voters believe Deval Patrick hasn’t done a good enough job to be re-elected.

4.      Charlie has a more positive image at this point.

At this point in the race, Charlie Baker is the only candidate with a positive image in the state:

Charlie Baker              48% favorable – 37% unfavorable      Margin – +11

Deval Patrick              48% favorable – 50% unfavorable      Margin –  -2

Bottom Line

With only a few days left in this race, it appears that Charlie Baker is well-positioned to win this race – he’s tied with the incumbent Governor, he has more energy behind his support and undecided voters are likely to break against Deval Patrick.

About Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno