Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s Calculus on Baker v. Patrick v. Cahill

(I agree FiveThirtyEight is one of the best left leaning blogs.  I don’t always agree with their conclusions, but they usually make good arguments and provide actual empirical evidence to back up their claims.  Overall, Nate Silver does a good job. – promoted by Mike “DD4RP” Rossettie)

I have been following FiveThirtyEight for quite a while now. It’s a polling/statistics based blog that uses a sophisticated model to determine results for races.

The blog recently moved under the aegis of the New York Times and now hosts model predictions of not only the traditional Senatorial races, but also Gubernatorial ones.

Massachusetts was posted today when the Governor’s Races went online.

This is what the model spits out when it is given all of the variables. I wish there was some discussion about the specifics; perhaps that is to come.

At any rate, I think it’s an interesting tool that can really help illuminate the reality of the races we follow. Oftimes, we kind of delude ourselves by reading the blatherings of the punditry and losing sight of the numbers.

Enough waxing philosophic.

I hope you folks find this enlightening and I also hope that you read this fantastic, albeit liberal leaning, blog.

Let the spin begin!

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