Red Mass Group has obtained a copy of a PowerPoint presentation of their latest polling numbers from Public Opinion Strategies. POS is a Republican polling firm used by many candidates. Some key points from the PowerPoint, a copy of which can be seen after the jump, are discussed below. The poll was of 500 likely voters conducted September 14-15, 2010.
Baker has moved ten points since the first poll done by POS for the Baker Campaign in April. The race currently stands at 38% Patrick, 34% Baker, 15% Cahill. The race in April was 24% Baker, 35% Patrick and 21% Cahill. Patrick’s lead has shrunk by 7 points from an 11 point lead to a 4 point lead. Cahill’s support has dropped by 6 points since April. The top-line polling numbers moved slightly in Charlie’s direction from July when the numbers were 32% Baker, 39% Patrick, and 17%.
As shown in most public polling Baker maintains a lead amongst the 79% of people who have heard of him 39% to 36% with 12% supporting Cahill.
The most promising numbers for Baker are the “intensity numbers”. POS asked respondents what their interest in this election was on a scale from one to ten. Among those most interested in the election, the 10s, Baker holds a 47% to 34% lead over Deval Patrick with 9% choosing Tim Cahill. When those responding 9 are included the lead is maintained at 42% – 37%. Amongst those rating their interest an 8 or higher the race is virutally tied at 38%B-37%D.
A strong case can be made that Tim Cahill is the spoiler in this race. Amongst those saying that a new person deserves to be Governor, Baker leads 58% to 5% with Cahill getting 23%. This shows that Cahill is taking a large portion of the somebody new vote.
Among Cahill voters if the race is limited to the remaining three candidates Baker wins 64% to 18% with 10% choosing Jill Stein. Finally if you take Cahill out of the race completely Baker holds a 3% lead at 43% to 40% with Stein at 4%.
Undecided voters break 67% to 19% towards a new person being elected Governor and 57% believe we are on the wrong track.
Based on these numbers we see why Baker is spending the amount of time he is on Tim Cahill. People are already sold on wanting a new Governor. The problem is Cahill is standing in the way of them getting one.
Baker is in a good position to win this race. Especially if the general public realizes that Patrick=Cahill.