MassInsight/Opinion Dynamics Poll: Cahill is the spoiler, Dem Congress Incumbents on shaky ground

Between July 23, 2010 and July 26, 2010 Opinion Dynamics conducted a poll for MassInsight.  500 adults were polled mostly on economic issues and a subset of 452 registered voters were identified and asked a series of political questions.  

The results of the poll further show that Tim Cahill is playing the part of spoiler in the race for Massachusetts Governor.  In a three way race the poll shows that 25% show support for Charlie Baker, 30% show support for Deval Patrick and 16% show support for Tim Cahill with 29% undecided.  In a two person race between Charlie Baker and Deval Patrick, Baker holds a 5 point lead 42% – 37% with 22% undecided.  

These numbers bolster the notion that Deval Patrick’s only shot of re-election is having Tim Cahill in the race.

(more analysis and toplines below the fold)

Perhaps the most shocking aspect of this poll is that 54% of registered voters in Massachusetts are either somewhat or very likely to vote against their incumbent Democratic Congressman this November.  Republicans have a once in a generation opportunity to restore balance to our congressional delegation.  

Please find below the toplines from this Opinion Dynamics Survey.

About Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno

  • 14. How likely are you to vote against the incumbent Democrat in your congressional district in the elections this November: very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?

    By a 48% to 39% margin statewide they throw the bums out.  So, that’s +9% statewide.  In some districts it will be better, and in other districts worse.  This makes the 5th, 6th, and obviously the 10th districts competitive.

    Even so, the 5th and 6th are still reaches and our candidates are long shots.  However, Hudak and Golinik are both raising competitive amounts of money and have some personal wealth to spend.  They aren’t the unfunded token challengers the MassGOP has grown used to in recent years.

  • I’m not surprised by the polling on the Congressional races, I still think we have a good chance to take at least four. What shocks me is that 46% believes that the Legislature can deal with taxes and spending cuts. Means we have to start focusing, on both those close congressional races and on our legislative candidates. By now everyone should have picked at least one candidate to dedicate his life to from now until November. IMHO.

    As for Cahill being the spoiler: just a suggestion, could we commit to supporting him against Kerry in 2014 if he’ll drop the governor campaign?

  • Some have suggested Cahill takes more votes from Deval, but this poll really counters that–

    Charlie would gain 17 percent if Cahill dropped, whereas Deval would only gain 7. The “don’t knows” are reduced by 5 points without Cahill.

    So does Baker focus on Deval, or keep hammering Cahill?


    Jim Geraghty’s Take:

    Strangely, the right direction/wrong track split is at 46/40, which seems pretty good considering the mood of the country. Also note that the “will definitely vote against my incumbent Democratic Congressman” is at 30 percent, which is flat from April and one point below what it was in January. There’s no disputing that for Massachusetts Republicans, the opportunities are there. But the locals haven’t completely abandoned their traditional Democratic loyalties yet.

  • Without question, some of our Members of Congress are in deep trouble…as well they should be. Polls show nearly 70% of the public feel that America is on the wrong track. Bill Delahunt felt the pressure back in December and got off the train. John Tierney,(“wrong track” Tierney)is in the fight of life against Bill Hudak in the 6th District. And, the trend there is with Hudak.

    Niki Tsongas is also in tough race.

    Jeff Perry, the likely winner of the Republican primary in the 10th, will win out over either Keating or O’Leary. Both support the policies of the Administration, and the voters aren’t buying it…even the ones that voted for Obama way back in 2008.