MA-05 Congressional Preview w/ poll

Jon Golnik Sam Meas

Massachusetts 5th congressional district has a PVI of D+8.  It is the 124th most Democratic district in the nation, and the 3rd most Republican district in Massachusetts.  In 2008, Incumbent Niki Tsongas (D) was unopposed.  However, in the 2007 special election she defeated Jim Ogonowski by a 51% to 45% margin. This year Tsongas is being challenged by Jonathan A. Golnik (R), Sam M. Meas (R), Robert L. Shapiro (R), Thomas J.M Weaver (R), Robert E. Clark (U) and Dale E. Brown (U).

Jon Golnik is a former foreign currency trader and current small business owner selling college apparel.  He is running on a platform of Jobs and the Economy, Energy Independence, Spending and The National Debt, National Security and Terrorism, and other issues.  He has raised $205,418 ($105,000 from the candidate) and has $112,814 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website

Sam Meas is a former Cambodian refugee who escaped the war zone along the Cambodia-Thai border and eventually immigrated to the United States as an “unaccompanied minor.”  He is currently a Principal with State Street Global Advisors, a division of State Street Corporation.  He is running on a platform of the Economy, Health Care, Energy and the Environment, Immigration, and Veterans issues.  He has raised $55,475 ($25,000 from the candidate) and has $1,075 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website

Bob Shapiro Tom Weaver “Bob Shapiro has served as a pharmacist, manager, software engineer, math teacher and small business owner.  A self taught student of Austrian economics, he is running on a platform of cutting federal spending to balance the budget without raising taxes, repealing the new  healthcare law, allowing free markets to guide our energy future most efficiently, and opposing “The Global Warming Hoax.” (remove federal spending and deficits.)  He has raised $27,944 ($25,873 from the candidate) and has $2,851 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website

Tom Weaver has an BS in Aerospace Engineering from the US Naval Academy and an MS in Mechanical Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  He formerly served as a Navigator, Electrical Officer, and Certified Naval Chief Nuclear Engineer in the militray.  He is currently the founder and owner of DTW Systems which specializes in membrane technology.  He is running on a platform of Private Job Creation, Our Children’s Future, Protecting the Environment while Producing More Energy, and National Defense.  FEC flings do not show any money raised for Tom Weaver.  More information is available on his website

Incumbent Niki Tsongas has raised $1,248,815 and has $567,997 cash on hand.  Independent Dale Brown has raised $2,489 ($1,500 from the candidate) and has $180 cash on hand.  Independent Robert Clark has raised $6,183 (all from the candidate) and has $566 cash on hand.


Recommendation:  Withheld.  Jon Golnik has the most professionally run campaign and may give us the best chance to win.  Sam Meas has an unbelievable personal story that must be told and is available on his website.  Tom Weaver has perhaps the most impressive personal resume and Bob Shapiro is the only one who mentioned “Austrian Economics” on his website.  They all have positive attributes that I respond to and am not recommending one over the others at this time.

Republican Primary Prediction:  Golnik 50%, Meas 30%, Shapiro 10%, Weaver 10%.  Sam Meas was the first candidate in and has some strong supporters.  However, the more professionally run Golnik campaign with six figures cash on hand will prevail.

General Election Prediction:  Tsongas 53%, Golnik 44%, Others 3%.  Tsongas is a beatable candidate in a winnable district.  In her only contested race, she got just 51% of the vote during a much more favorable political climate for Democrats.  She is an unimpressive person with a famous last name.

While her $568K on hand dwarf’s Golnik’s $133K it is a much smaller hill to climb in other districts where entrenched incumbents have millions and Republican challengers have close to nothing.  This NH border district is only a D+8 district to begin with and voters are still angry over the Democrats sales tax hike.  If the 2010 wave is big enough we have an outside chance to take this one.

Other Congressional Previews:

MA-01: Congressional Preview w/ poll

MA-02: Congressional Preview w/ poll

MA-03: Congressional Preview w/ poll

MA-04: Congressional Preview w/ poll

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About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie