MA-05 Congressional Preview w/ poll

Jon Golnik Sam Meas

Massachusetts 5th congressional district has a PVI of D+8.  It is the 124th most Democratic district in the nation, and the 3rd most Republican district in Massachusetts.  In 2008, Incumbent Niki Tsongas (D) was unopposed.  However, in the 2007 special election she defeated Jim Ogonowski by a 51% to 45% margin. This year Tsongas is being challenged by Jonathan A. Golnik (R), Sam M. Meas (R), Robert L. Shapiro (R), Thomas J.M Weaver (R), Robert E. Clark (U) and Dale E. Brown (U).

Jon Golnik is a former foreign currency trader and current small business owner selling college apparel.  He is running on a platform of Jobs and the Economy, Energy Independence, Spending and The National Debt, National Security and Terrorism, and other issues.  He has raised $205,418 ($105,000 from the candidate) and has $112,814 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website

Sam Meas is a former Cambodian refugee who escaped the war zone along the Cambodia-Thai border and eventually immigrated to the United States as an “unaccompanied minor.”  He is currently a Principal with State Street Global Advisors, a division of State Street Corporation.  He is running on a platform of the Economy, Health Care, Energy and the Environment, Immigration, and Veterans issues.  He has raised $55,475 ($25,000 from the candidate) and has $1,075 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website

Bob Shapiro Tom Weaver “Bob Shapiro has served as a pharmacist, manager, software engineer, math teacher and small business owner.  A self taught student of Austrian economics, he is running on a platform of cutting federal spending to balance the budget without raising taxes, repealing the new  healthcare law, allowing free markets to guide our energy future most efficiently, and opposing “The Global Warming Hoax.” (remove federal spending and deficits.)  He has raised $27,944 ($25,873 from the candidate) and has $2,851 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website

Tom Weaver has an BS in Aerospace Engineering from the US Naval Academy and an MS in Mechanical Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  He formerly served as a Navigator, Electrical Officer, and Certified Naval Chief Nuclear Engineer in the militray.  He is currently the founder and owner of DTW Systems which specializes in membrane technology.  He is running on a platform of Private Job Creation, Our Children’s Future, Protecting the Environment while Producing More Energy, and National Defense.  FEC flings do not show any money raised for Tom Weaver.  More information is available on his website

Incumbent Niki Tsongas has raised $1,248,815 and has $567,997 cash on hand.  Independent Dale Brown has raised $2,489 ($1,500 from the candidate) and has $180 cash on hand.  Independent Robert Clark has raised $6,183 (all from the candidate) and has $566 cash on hand.


Recommendation:  Withheld.  Jon Golnik has the most professionally run campaign and may give us the best chance to win.  Sam Meas has an unbelievable personal story that must be told and is available on his website.  Tom Weaver has perhaps the most impressive personal resume and Bob Shapiro is the only one who mentioned “Austrian Economics” on his website.  They all have positive attributes that I respond to and am not recommending one over the others at this time.

Republican Primary Prediction:  Golnik 50%, Meas 30%, Shapiro 10%, Weaver 10%.  Sam Meas was the first candidate in and has some strong supporters.  However, the more professionally run Golnik campaign with six figures cash on hand will prevail.

General Election Prediction:  Tsongas 53%, Golnik 44%, Others 3%.  Tsongas is a beatable candidate in a winnable district.  In her only contested race, she got just 51% of the vote during a much more favorable political climate for Democrats.  She is an unimpressive person with a famous last name.

While her $568K on hand dwarf’s Golnik’s $133K it is a much smaller hill to climb in other districts where entrenched incumbents have millions and Republican challengers have close to nothing.  This NH border district is only a D+8 district to begin with and voters are still angry over the Democrats sales tax hike.  If the 2010 wave is big enough we have an outside chance to take this one.

Other Congressional Previews:

MA-01: Congressional Preview w/ poll

MA-02: Congressional Preview w/ poll

MA-03: Congressional Preview w/ poll

MA-04: Congressional Preview w/ poll

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About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie

  • It’s only July, in an unusually volatie election year, with people working hard for the various candidates who have come forth despite the usual disadvantage of running in Blue State Massachusetts. I just don’t understand how at this point you can make a prediction for the general election, and I can’t imagine why you would want to.  

  • “proving Mike Wrong” can indeed be a great motivator!

  • I am relatively new to RMG so I didn’t know you are in the prognostication business. I thought you were in the keeping us all informed business. Is guessing information? :~)

  • This is not a criticism of Golnik, but his ‘professionally run campaign’ and speaking style make him sound like Same-ole, Same-ole from GOP Central Casting.  Meas is different, intelligent, and has a real shot at beating TSONGAS, not winning the primary.  Independent/Formerly Uninvolved voters might be motivated to turn out for him – this is the year of CHANGE, not vanilla receipe.  Remember, Paul Tsongas was a hugely popular Senator, and not a wacky progressive.  Liberal, yes – but moonbat, no.  His name

    dosn’t stir up the visceral hatred that Markey or Frank does.

    Sam Meas could win this.  I’m tired of cheering when we break 40%, myself.

  • Knightbrigade

    of MA-5, let me add MY 2 cents.

    First off, great previews series Mike!!

    now to the crystal ball:

    Primary* With Meas closing..

    Golnik 48%, Meas 42%, Shapiro 5%, Weaver 5%.

    Meas would take Lawrence from Tsongas in the General for sure, Golnik…maybe.

    General* Golnik 49% Tsongas 47% others 4%

        or.. Meas   51% Tsingas 46% others 3%

    When the widow Tsongas beat Ogo, the election theme was NAME vs nice guy.

    This time it’s nice guys vs OBAMA/PELOSI/TSONGAS/SOCIALISM with some ANGER sprinkled in for motivation. In THIS district, that should be enough.

    To me it spells buh bye Widow Tsongas….

  • People are pissed and are looking for something different.  If we just depend on those who can self-fund their own campaigns, then the GOP at only 12% here in Mass., will run out of those types real soon.  Both Golnik and Hudak have loaned themselves considerable money. Good for them that they can do that. The rest of the field isn’t that fortunate. Does that make them bad candidates ? Nope. Was Scott Brown a favorite back in November of 09 ? How much “cash on hand” did he have comparatively then for a Senate run  ? Not much. Even our own “insiders” didn’t give him a chance. What happened ? People had passion, and put it to work.  

    Recently in the Maine Gubernatorial primary, two candidates spent over $1 million each-and LOST- to one guy who only spent $80k and had his office in his house.

    We need to find candidates who are relatable to the people-Tome Weaver is relatable as is his resume. Does he have any organization ? I don’t know. Meas is another who relates to people. He has an organization. Maybe not as “professionaly run” as Golnik but he has one. Shapiro is still here too. He has been very active and is using robo calls and radio to get his name out there.

    So what does it all mean ? Once again-strategy. Who has the best shot at beating Tsongas ? Who can instill passion into to people to get them out and working for us ? Who can bring votes over from the other side, those disenfranchised Reagan Democrats ? Who has the stamina to work harder than the others ?

  • nomad943

    Anyone else notice all of the Golnik signs that went up around Haverhill yesterday? They were spaced out about every 50 feet around the highway interchange yesetrday evening.

    We noticed them on our way home from the grocery store and got home just in time to get  … A ROBO call from Golnik.

    The guy sure is persistant even if sadly uninteresting.

  • politicalmadman

    Can we check that again ? Someone I spoke to said he made a donation to himslef last fall to start things off of 50k. I am not good with finding this stuff so they could be mistaken.    

  • I was fortunate to have the opportunity to hear all four candidates speak at a “candidates night” a few weeks ago.

    Bob Shapiro and Tom Weaver impressed me with their respect for the constitution. Tom even recommended a book for me called “Conscience of a Conservative” by Barry Goldwater. Sam Meas is clearly a good guy but he also seemed nervous and his speech was very brief. Jon Golnick gave a good speech, hitting many of the notes I like to hear. Overall I’m leaning towards Tom Weaver. He seems like exactly the type of guy we need in congress and it’s too bad he’s having trouble fundraising.

    Right now I’m concentrating my volunteering time with candidates for state rep and state senate like Kara Fratto and Dave Carnevale. Whoever wins the 5th district primary will certainly get some volunteer time from me

  • nomad943

    There will be a debate this Friday in Methuen. Questions will be taken from the public.…  

  • fluffy

    There are quite a few of us. We will make the difference.

  • I’ve been conducting some research and I have to say that Sam has made the best impression. Not because he is a polished professional speaker, because he isn’t, or because he has the most money to spend on advertising, because he doesn’t.

    It feels like the kind of support he does have is the type that can not be bought.

    I attended his event this weekend. The turnout and the charged atmosphere made a huge impression. Niki must be worried about Sam and his loyal supporters. They want him to win so much that they can taste it… I don’t sense this from any of the other campaigns.

    Times are tough and people are fed up with smooth politicians. Having the biggest attack ad budget is going to hurt.

  •   Prediction made before it was publicly disclosed that Jon Golnik has had a conviction for DUI.

     I think it is a game changer.