MA-04 Congressional Preview w/ poll

Sean Bielat for Congress Massachusetts 4th congressional district has a PVI of D+14.  It is the 76th most Democratic district in the nation, and the 3rd most Democratic district in Massachusetts.  In 2008, Incumbent Barney Frank (D) defeated Earl Sholley (R) by a 68% to 25% margin.  Independent candidate Susan Allen (U) received 7%.  This year Frank is being challenged Sean DM. Bielat (R), Earl H. Sholley (R), and primary opponent Rachel E. Brown (D).

Sean Bielat currently serves as a Major in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, after holding the rank of Lieutenant while on active duty.  He also serves as Chairman of the NATO Industrial Armaments Group where he led an international team studying the potential for use of advanced reconnaissance technology in urban warfare.  Sean Bielat is campaigning on Economic Growth, Job Creation, Deficit Reduction, A Strong National Defense, A Focus on the Constitution and other issues.  He has raised $179,480 and currently has $95,076 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website SeanBielat.org

Earl Sholley for Congress Earl Sholley is a former Army Sergeant and flower shop owner.  He is a long time political activist and former board member of Massachusetts Citizens for Life.  Earl Sholley is running on a platform of the economy, health care reform, climate change, right to life, and other issues.  He has raised $73,134 and has $11,153 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website SholleyForCongress.us

Incumbent Barney Frank has raised $2,224,505 and has $981,168 cash on hand.  His primary opponent Rachel Brown has raised $23,163 and has $1,131 cash on hand.

MORE BELOW THE FOLD….

Rachel Brown I don’t normally preview the Democratic candidates, but some of you may be curious as to why Barney Frank of all people has an opponent within his own party.  Rachel Brown is running on the Lyndon LaRouche platform and openly supports the impeachment of President Obama.  More information can be found at her website RachelForCongress.com

Recommendation:  Sean Bielat.  Both Sholley and Bielat have strong conservative credentials, but Bielat is by far the more credible candidate.  Aside from the sizable money gap, Sean Bielat is the only Republican candidate in the race that is on the radar of the national party.  He was the first Congressional candidate to qualify for the NRCC “Young Guns” status.  Subsequently, both Jeff Perry and Joe Malone also qualified.  Furthermore, if voters have a desire to throw out Barney Frank, Earl Sholley has had some personal issues that may prove problematic.  To retire Barney Frank, Sean Bielat is our best option and has my full recommendation.

Republican Primary Prediction: Bielat 60%, Sholley 40%.  Sholley has been active in Republican politics for a long time in the 4th Congressional district, has a core following, and will benefit from being the first candidate in the race.  However, he will fall short against Sean Bielat.

Democratic Primary Prediction: Frank 80%, Brown 20%.  We have open primaries here in Massachusetts and many independents will vote in the Democratic primary who do not like Barney Frank.  “Not Barney Frank” earns 20%.

General Election Prediction:  Frank 61%, Bielat 39%.  This is a heavily Democratic district that Scott Brown actually won outright.  Democratic strongholds of Dartmouth, New Bedford and Fall River typically drowned out the string of Republican leaning towns.  However the turnout ratios are more favorable to a Republican in an off-year election than a Presidential year.  Barney Frank’s problems with Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, a potentially great Republican year, and a stronger and better financed candidate in Sean Bielat should make this race more competitive than it usually is.  Even with all that, Barney Frank still wins.

Other Congressional Previews:

MA-01: Congressional Preview w/ poll

MA-02: Congressional Preview w/ poll

MA-03: Congressional Preview w/ poll

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About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie

  • Republican Ram Rod Radio
  • Bielat Word Count – 93

    Sholley Word Count – 65

    Also, selection of subject matter, style and wording shows significant bias. You guys/gals provide us politically junkies with a great public service, but could you perhaps strengthen your objectivity?

    Appreciate it. Thanks. mf

  • I was originally with Sholley before Sean Bielat entered the race. As far as I’m concerned, both Sholley and Bielat are somewhat similar in their positions. However, Sean is clearly the better candidate with the least amount of baggage.

    I know Sholley does have a loyal following in the district and I personally have voted for him in the past, but I think his supporters really need to take a step back and look at the big picture. Bielat is a rising star in the district that deserves his chance to take on Barney. Sholley has had his chance in the past and his background is questionable considering the opportunity in this district this election. If there ever was a year and candidate to take on Barney, it’s Sean Bielat.

    If Sean can follow what Scott Brown did in the smaller Republican leaning towns in the district (IE: Lakeville, Halifax, Foxboro, Wrentham, Middleboro, Raynham, Dighton, Etc…) where Scott won 2-1 and even 3-1; I feel Bielat can counter the bigger Democratic populations of Fall River, Newton, and New Bedford.

    Its clear Sean is the only choice that can make a credible run against Barney Frank and I urge everyone in the district to get behind Sean…  

  • demolisher

    Jeez Mike, you think Sean is going to fall off the stage at the debate or something?

    Please bear in mind:

    – Brown carried the vote

    – Barney is offensive to many

    – This is the biggest anti-incumbent year, pretty much ever

    – This is the biggest anti-big-government year, pretty much ever

    – The “bar” of 25% was set by Sholley, not your average candidate

    Bielat is very smart, and very electable.  Barney is full of lies and insults.

    Don’t confuse south coast dems with “progressives”.

  • Sean Bielat is the ONLY viable candidate in the GOP primary and the ONLY person in the race who can defeat Barney Frank.

    Massachusetts Republicans, Independents and even many Democrats rejected the Obama/Reid/Pelosi/Frank Far Left agenda in January, and they will do so again in November.

    Sean is far more than a “I’m not Barney” candidate, however. He’s a well educated (Georgetown/Harvard/Wharton)US Marine who has succeeded in the private sector. He can’t be demonized as “anti-intellectual” and his calm demeanor will be a perfect foil to Barney’s rambling, arrogant and contentious debating style. His policy positions are rational and always empirically justified–thus they appeal to “regular people” with common sense, regardless of Party affiliation. He is a solid conservative who the voters will come to know, like, and most importantly, TRUST over the course of the campaign.

    For these and many other reasons,I support Sean Bielat without reservation and I look forward to seeing him expedite Barney Frank’s retirement plans this November.

  • The movement taking over the country is ANTI “old guard R establishment backed same ole, same ole lockstep, go where the money is” candidate.

    Sean is backed by the “old guard R establishment”.  We are sick and tired of you all. People are waking up and taking notice that anyone in this state who is backed or being helped by either the Baker boys or the Romney crew or even the Brown gang (the people who worked so hard to  get him elected are really po’d at him – we voted for him for one reason only – 41 – so we really shouldn’t be surprised) are going to get a rude awakening come November.  

    When will the lockstep “old guard R establishment” cronies realize, this is not the year to attempt to intimidate  the new wave of conservative Republicans (coming out of years of slumber because we actually trusted the “old guard R establishment”) on how to vote.

    You “old guard R establishment” locksteppers are doing the same shenanigans that has disgusted us for years. Demean, degrade, trashtalk and dirt dig just because you don’t have a true conservative platform to stand on, let alone believe in. You played your only card. It will get stale real soon.

    I’ve been a registered R for over 30 years and I am really tired of the “old guard R establishment” pompous attitude.

    I will be voting the most conservative candidate(s) possible. Not the R candidate who has plagiarized a “stance” from a true conservative Republican candidate, because deep down inside, the whole lot of you know what is really going on, and you are all just realizing you just might go down in flames if you don’t at least attempt to get on the real bandwagon.

    Go Earl!

    Sean, since you are taking marching orders from the old guard, I wish you luck, you are going to need it. And, when you have had enough lessons on what to say (because it seems you really don’t have a true stance on anything), debate!  

  • I don’t suppose there’s much chance we can have an issue-oriented primary that gets the better candidate, whichever he is, picked without his supporters indulging themselves in personal attacks that damage his ability to win the general?  We’re behaving pretty well in the 6th, and as nearly as I can tell in the 3rd and 5th as well.

  • …I’ve seen a handful of Sean Bielat yard signs across Dartmouth over recent days.  Earl Sholley has none but I did see him & about a dozen supporters doing a stand out at an intersection in Taunton as I drove to the Taunton Green for Sheriff Hodgson’s 400 or so supporter rally.

    Sean has a lenghty article about him in today’s edition of the Standard-Times of New Bedford.  Knowing the columnist’s liberal tendencies I think that it came out rather well for Sean.  See Jack Spillane’s Sean Bielat represents new era of GOP conservatives.

    While I was at the Taunton Green & the Tisei BBQ in Braintree, my mother claimed to have gotten a phone call on behalf of the Bielat campaign.

    What that all means?  I have no clue but I toss it out as more grist for the blogosphere mill.  

  • http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesi

    Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank caused a scene when he demanded a $1 senior discount on his ferry fare to Fire Island’s popular gay haunt, The Pines, last Friday. Frank was turned down by ticket clerks at the dock in Sayville because he didn’t have the required Suffolk County Senior Citizens ID. A witness reports, “Frank made such a drama over the senior rate that I contemplated offering him the dollar to cool down the situation.”