MA-04 Congressional Preview w/ poll

Sean Bielat for Congress Massachusetts 4th congressional district has a PVI of D+14.  It is the 76th most Democratic district in the nation, and the 3rd most Democratic district in Massachusetts.  In 2008, Incumbent Barney Frank (D) defeated Earl Sholley (R) by a 68% to 25% margin.  Independent candidate Susan Allen (U) received 7%.  This year Frank is being challenged Sean DM. Bielat (R), Earl H. Sholley (R), and primary opponent Rachel E. Brown (D).

Sean Bielat currently serves as a Major in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, after holding the rank of Lieutenant while on active duty.  He also serves as Chairman of the NATO Industrial Armaments Group where he led an international team studying the potential for use of advanced reconnaissance technology in urban warfare.  Sean Bielat is campaigning on Economic Growth, Job Creation, Deficit Reduction, A Strong National Defense, A Focus on the Constitution and other issues.  He has raised $179,480 and currently has $95,076 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website

Earl Sholley for Congress Earl Sholley is a former Army Sergeant and flower shop owner.  He is a long time political activist and former board member of Massachusetts Citizens for Life.  Earl Sholley is running on a platform of the economy, health care reform, climate change, right to life, and other issues.  He has raised $73,134 and has $11,153 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website

Incumbent Barney Frank has raised $2,224,505 and has $981,168 cash on hand.  His primary opponent Rachel Brown has raised $23,163 and has $1,131 cash on hand.


Rachel Brown I don’t normally preview the Democratic candidates, but some of you may be curious as to why Barney Frank of all people has an opponent within his own party.  Rachel Brown is running on the Lyndon LaRouche platform and openly supports the impeachment of President Obama.  More information can be found at her website

Recommendation:  Sean Bielat.  Both Sholley and Bielat have strong conservative credentials, but Bielat is by far the more credible candidate.  Aside from the sizable money gap, Sean Bielat is the only Republican candidate in the race that is on the radar of the national party.  He was the first Congressional candidate to qualify for the NRCC “Young Guns” status.  Subsequently, both Jeff Perry and Joe Malone also qualified.  Furthermore, if voters have a desire to throw out Barney Frank, Earl Sholley has had some personal issues that may prove problematic.  To retire Barney Frank, Sean Bielat is our best option and has my full recommendation.

Republican Primary Prediction: Bielat 60%, Sholley 40%.  Sholley has been active in Republican politics for a long time in the 4th Congressional district, has a core following, and will benefit from being the first candidate in the race.  However, he will fall short against Sean Bielat.

Democratic Primary Prediction: Frank 80%, Brown 20%.  We have open primaries here in Massachusetts and many independents will vote in the Democratic primary who do not like Barney Frank.  “Not Barney Frank” earns 20%.

General Election Prediction:  Frank 61%, Bielat 39%.  This is a heavily Democratic district that Scott Brown actually won outright.  Democratic strongholds of Dartmouth, New Bedford and Fall River typically drowned out the string of Republican leaning towns.  However the turnout ratios are more favorable to a Republican in an off-year election than a Presidential year.  Barney Frank’s problems with Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, a potentially great Republican year, and a stronger and better financed candidate in Sean Bielat should make this race more competitive than it usually is.  Even with all that, Barney Frank still wins.

Other Congressional Previews:

MA-01: Congressional Preview w/ poll

MA-02: Congressional Preview w/ poll

MA-03: Congressional Preview w/ poll

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About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie