MA-03 Congressional Preview w/ poll.

Bob Chipman for Congress Bob Delle for Congress Massachusetts 3rd congressional district has a PVI of D+9.  It is the 119th most Democratic district in the nation, and the 5th most Republican district in Massachusetts.   In 2008, Incumbent Jim McGovern (D) was unopposed.  This year, McGovern is being challenged by a crowded field of Robert J. Chipman (R), Robert A. Delle (R), Brian J. Herr (R), Martin A. Lamb (R), Michael P. Stopa (R), and Patrick Barron (U).

Bob Chipman is a School Committee member in the King Philip Regional School District and lives in Plainville.  He is running on a platform of Healthcare, National Security, Size of Government, and Voice in Congress.  More informaion is available on his website

Bob Delle is a medical malpractice attorney from Westborough.  He is running on a conservative Pro-Grown, Pro-Values, Pro-Family platform.  He believers in the “supremacy of the individual over the collective” and is in opposition to the “purposeful degradation of traditional American values.”  More information is available on his website

Brian Herr for Congress
Brian Herr currently serves as  as New England District Manager for large electrical wholesaler with locations throughout North America.  He is a Former Chairman of the Hopkinton Board of Selectmen and a current Board Member for the Metro West Regional Transit Authority.  Brian Herr was considering a Run for Treasurer, but withdrew to run for Congress around the time Karyn Polito announced.  He is running on a platform including job creation, lower taxes,reducing spending and border security.  According to the 2nd quarter filings with the FEC, Brian Herr has raised $66,502 and has $23,347 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website

Marty Lamb for CongressMike Stopa for CongressMarty Lamb is a real estate attorney from Holliston who has owned his own firm since 1996.  He is running on a platform including the balanced budget amendment, the line item veto, limiting government spending to rate of inflation, a hiring freeze for all non-essential employees, paying off debt, establishing a “Sunset Committee” and taking back the unspent TARP funds.  He is opposed to new entitlements, off-budget expenditures and all bailouts.   Unfortunately, Marty Lamb’s 2nd quarter filings are not yet available on the FEC website.  When they are made available I will update this post.  According to his 1st quarter filings with the FEC (3/31), Marty Lamb had raised $6,746 and had $2,883 cash on hand.  More information is available on his website

Mike Stopa is a Physicist specializing in computation and nanoscience in the Physics Department at Harvard University. He is the director of the National Nanotechnology Infrastructure Network Computation Project and a recognized expert on nanoscale electronics and computation. He has over 75 publications and over a thousand citations to his work in the physics literature.  He has written detailed position papers entitled Fiscal Sanity, Global Warming, Healthcare, Illegal Aliens, Jobs, My Platform, The Ryan Plan and War on Terror.  These and be read on his website

Incumbent Jim McGovern has raised $1,068,961 this year and has $822,957 cash on hand.  Unenrolled Patrick Barron has raised $3,167 and has $1,913 cash on hand.  Bob Chipman, Bob Delle and Mike Stopa do not show any funds raised at this time.


MA-03 Recommendation:  The 3rd Congressional district is my home district, and at this point in time I am leaning towards voting for Mike Stopa.  Defeating Jim McGovern is a tall order, but I believe Mike Stopa has the potential to represent us best.  I have heard him speak and he comes across as a person with tremendous intellect and depth of knowledge on a wide variety of issues.  The Republican Party is well served by his presence in the marketplace of ideas.

Republican Primary Prediction:  Marty Lamb 38%, Brian Herr 37%, Mike Stopa 15%, Bob Chipman 5%, Bob Delle 5%.  At this point in time, the 3rd Congressional race is shaping up as a two man field between Lamb and Herr.  Marty Lamb has been campaigning the longest and wins the race for pure volume of campaigning.  Brian Herr has done much less retail politics, but has the most money.  Marty Lamb has arguably the deepest support among “Tea Party” organizations, while Herr has the most support among traditional/establishment Republicans.

While Lamb is certainly beatable, I give him a tiny edge at this point in time for three reasons.  First, Republican primaries are traditionally low turnout affairs.  Second, I suspect most politically educated unerolled voters will be pulling Democratic ballots to vote for (or against) Guy Glodis.  Third, the crowded field further reduces the number of raw votes needed to win.  These turnout dynamics tend to favor the areas where Lamb is strongest.

Mike Stopa has made some noise very recently and has the potential for positive earned media and a late surge.  Neither Chipman nor Delle has gained much traction at this point.

General Election Prediction:  McGovern 63%, Lamb 35%, Barron 2%.

Other Congressional Previews:

MA-01: Congressional Preview w/ poll

MA-02: Congressional Preview w/ poll

(Obviously the poll below should read “MA-03.”  Unfortunately, I can’t alter the poll after it has begun.  I apologize.)

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About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie