MA-02 Congressional Preview w/ poll.

Massachusetts 2nd congressional district has a More information is available at his website PVI of D+9.  It is the 117th most Democratic district in the nation, and the 4th most Republican district in Massachusetts.  In 2008, Incumbent Richard Neal (D) was unopposed.  This year, Neal is being challenged by Jay S. Fleitman (R) and Thomas A. Wesley (R).

Jay Fleitman for congress Dr. Jay Fleitman has an impressive resume in both medicine and business.  He is the immediate past president of the medical staff and member of the board of trustees of the Cooley Dickinson Hospital, was the medical director of 2 different medical plans, and has served as a small business owner for over 20 years.  In his public life, Dr. Fleitman is a former school committeeman in his hometown of Northampton and currently serves as his ward chairman for the Northampton Republican City Committee.

Dr. Fleitman is running on a platform of Health Care Reform (including mandatory catastrophic insurance), lower taxes and spending, and opposition to “Cap and Trade” legislation.  According to the 2nd quarter filings with the FEC, Jay Fleitman has raised $89,485 and has $15,899 cash on hand.  More information is available at his website

Tom Wesley for Congress

In the military, Tom Welsey is a former Navy pilot who has worked assignments in the Pentagon as a member of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.  In business, Tom Wesley has worked as an executive in Fortune 500 companies and as an entrepreneur in a small business start up.  In his personal life, Tom Wesley has earned the rank of Eagle Scout and serves as a teacher and moderator in his local church.

Tom Wesley is running on a platform of the Economy, Jobs, Homeland Security, Health Care Reform, and Education.  Unfortunately, Tom Wesley’s 2nd quater filings are not yet available on the FEC website.  When they are made available I will update this post.  According to his 1st quarter filings with the FEC (3/31), Tom Wesleay had raised $50,228 and had $26,797 cash on hand.  More information is available at his website

Incumbent Richard Neal has raised $1,679,797 year to date and has $2,974,164 cash on hand.


MA-02Recommendation:  Both Fleitman and Wesley are decent candidates.  However, I believe Wesley is running a better campaign.  While his FEC numbers are not yet available, he already had more cash on hand 3 months ago than Fleitman has currently.  Furthermore, Wesley has superior new media operations and anecdotal evidence suggests better retail politics as well.  At this time I believe Tom Wesley will make a stronger candidate and has my soft recommendation over Dr. Fleitman.

Republican Primary Prediction:  Tom Wesley 62% Jay Fleitman 38%

General Election Prediction:  Richard Neal (D) 59%, Tom Wesley (R) 41%.

The Massachusetts 2nd Congressional district has been trending more Republican over time.  The towns in south Worcester County become more Republican and a larger percentage of the district.  In 2008, it voted slightly more Republican than the 3rd congressional district, formerly held by Peter Blute (R).  Both Wesley and Fleitman have quality resumes and are running real campaigns.  The Republican nominee will have raised six figures, done a fair amount of retail politics, and caught a good year in 2010.  Unfortunately, Neal’s near $3 Million on hand will prove difficult to overcome.  I expect a decent showing, but not victory at this time.

For this poll, and future polls, I will list all candidates regardless of party in a single selection poll.  It is not intended to reflect either a primary or general election ballot.

Other Congressional Previews:

MA-01: Congressional Preview w/ poll

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About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie