Tim Cahill’s Path to Victory

In light of the results of the Rasmussen poll, one may speculate on what Cahill can do to over the next five and a half months to win the election.  I do not see a path to victory for the Cahill/Loscocco ticket at this point (but remember, I was way off on my poll prediction as well).

Here are some possible strategies and the reason(s) why I believe they won’t work for Cahill.

GOP/Conservative Mutiny:  Much of his early strategy was to attempt to separate conservatives from the Baker/Tisei ticket.  That may have been a motivation for his decision to team up with Loscocco.  Cahill operatives and partisans posting on this board have tried to point out how the Cahill/Loscocco ticket was the most conservative.  However, the Rasmussen poll now shows Cahill with very high negatives among self-described conservatives.  Also, with the big Ross win, it appears unlikely that the GOP will experience an organizational collapse.  In contrast, the Mass GOP appears to be on a roll.

Send in the Hacks:  Cahill may pull the Tom Reilly strategy by appealing to public sector workers.  His positions and statements on public employee union power and pensions are that of a traditional union-based machine Democrat.  The problem for Cahill is that his poor showing in the polls suggests that he is not the favorite to win in November.  A public employee will not want to come out of the closet to support the guy that lost to his future boss.

Mr. Fixit:  Cahill could run as a reformer.  Indeed, he has some successes in office with the MSBA.  Does he have a chance to outdo Baker on this point?  I doubt it.  The RGA ads probably hurt here.  He also suffers from self-inflicted wounds like his inability to come up with any areas that he would cut or reform in response to the Globe inquiry.  Could he outflank Patrick on this point?  Maybe.

I do not see a path by which Cahill can position himself to beat both Baker and Patrick (a path to second place is not good enough).  So what say you?

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