Rasmussen: Patrick 45% Baker 31% Cahill 14%

Deval PatrickCharlie BakerTiny Tim

Rasmussen Reports

In the wake of over $1,000,000 in negative ads from the Republican Governor’s Association Massachusetts Treasurer Tim Cahill has crashed in the Rasmussen poll released today.  In the same poll released on April 7th showed Patrick 35%, Baker 27%, Cahill 23%.  The net swing over the past 5 weeks has been Patrick +10%, Baker +4% and Cahill -9%.  Tim Cahill has also dropped into 3rd place among unenrolled voters showing Baker 36%, Patrick 28%, Cahill 21%.

Negative ads work.


Rasmussen has also shown a major rise in Deval Patrick’s job approval.  He now has 46% job approval (with 12% very strong) and 53% disapproval (with 33% strongly disprove).

About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie

  • No opinion Patrick 1%, Cahill 24% Baker 24%

    Cahill trails Ross and Baker in three way race.

  • So does Cahill spend money to recover his poll standing? Save his money and plummet further? Drop out? Now maybe SSR has a better appreciation for Tim’s lack of money. Again, Deval & Baker combined will spend over $30M. Tim might spend $4M. Cahill can’t win.

  • Dig in – accept third place and roll up the sleeves.

    It’s gut check time for Cahill!  

  • To lower Cahill’s numbers, but they also helped give the incumbent Democrat a 14 point lead in a poll that traditionally skews Republican.

    If the goal was to merely destroy Cahill, then the negative ads (so far) are working, yes.  But if the goal was, you know, to actually get Baker elected, they are not wotking very well.

  • I did not predict this but am delighted with the result.  

  • As often happens in a 3 way race, when Candidate A attacks Candidate B, Candidate C benefits the most.  Of course at this early stage, if Baker (and allies) neutralizes Cahill and Cahill becomes a non-factor, Baker then has plenty of time to focus on Patrick.  

    Frankly I’m confused…initially I thought Cahill was peeling moderate Dems away from Patrick, but the polls (and postings here) and Cahill’s pandering to the right of Baker suggested that Cahill was getting his support from the right.  But now Cahill’s plunge and Partick’s rise indicates Cahill was taking votes from Patrick.

    Any thoughts?

  • Hmmm, why then are evals numbers up ? Is he sonsidered to be outside the fray ??

  • his loot now and run him out of money early on.  Then in Sept and Oct go on the attack against Deval=a Baker win!

    What say all you about this strategy?

  • It boggles the mind quite a bit that there are so many Cahill fams here (and ardent ones too).  Cahill is a Democrat hack – that’s who he is. You are going to support a guy as a protest against Charlie Baker? That makes virtually no sense at all. You want a more conservative candidate? Me too!  Be realistic.  

  • The RGA ads have done their work, and they’re supposedly running for many more weeks.  

    This race is between Deval and Not Deval.  At the end of the day, the hard-core Deval vote is going to be between 35%-40%.  Not Deval just needs to beat that number.

    The issue is that Not Deval number was/is split between Baker and Cahill.  The RGA ads where and are designed to remind folks that Cahill is not and improvement over Deval and, as I put it, “crush Cahill.”

    Deval has  a bump, but people in power usually do after a crisis where they appear to be competent (like Aquapoclpse).

    Folks who think the RGA ads have hurt Baker can’t read, because they’re blithely ignoring the fact that Baker is +4 in this poll since the last Rasmussen poll.

    Like Mike, I was a bit surprised how much Cahill Plunged, but he’ll continue to crash as the RGA campaign runs it’s course.  Deval’s negatives being higher than his positives (even in this poll) will bring his numbers back down, and it will become a much clearer two-man race between Baker and Deval.

    All without Baker spending a dime on TV or radio ads ($2,000,000 in cash today).

  • Deval beats Baker and Cahill combined. A protest vote will benefit our party in the long run if seats in legislature and congress are picked up.