What Obama’s Visit Means

On Friday I openly wondered whether having the president come to campaign for Coakely signaled bad news for Brown suporters. I theorized that he would not come here to be humiliated by another loss like NJ & VA – he must know something we don't about the state of the race. However, now that Obama has come and gone, I think I have to ammend my theory.

First, it appears that even among the president's inner circle this race has all but become a lost cause.

Second, the venue they chose for today's energizing rally only held 1000 people. Considering the fact that Obama's presence was supposed to be the motivating factor wouldn't it have made more sense to have a very large venue? Perhaps the president knew this was a nonstarter from the beginning but figured he had to at least make an appearance of trying?

Third, Brown's poll numbers just continue to rise. A Merriman River Group poll in Massachusetts finds that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley, 50.8% to 41.2%.

The best part? Watching the local coverage of today's competeing rallies was revealing. The main story line from the Coakley rally- Obama needed to come to try and save her. The main story line from Scott's- they had so many people there they needed to close down Main Street.

Crossposted at The Rockefeller Republican.

About SteveB

  • 1) The White House has to play it this way. Obama is the pitch man for the party, not the leader. Everyone in Washington understands this. His value evaporates if he cannot cruise in and help party members raise money and win tough races. So, they have to make it sound dire. If Coakley wins, he remains an asset to the party.

    2) The Coakley people were planning for this before they knew they could get Obama. They chose the venue. They made the plan. They did it in concert with the DNC and the House and Senate leadership. Only when Axelrod spoke with the Patrick people did they realize they had to pull this one out.

    3) Last week, the pros looked at the numbers and saw that the bottom was falling out from under Coakley. This thing went national because that was the only hope of turning the tide. Smart folks here in DC are comparing this to NY23. Bad decisions locally have lead to bad decisions nationally.

    Smart guys here in DC are saying you guys in Mass are like the first guys to discover fire. You may think it is just a good way to cook, but the world is about to change because of it.  

  • Fox news the hall held 3000 people. and their estimates were between 2000-2500.  Now the left-winged folks claim it was packed to the ceiling…some I’m guessing it’s somewhere in between.  Other than that, good news for Brown.

    Other than that, I completely agree with everything you said.  BHO can draw a crowd, but can he get them to vote?  Not according to what I’ve been reading.  His support in the 18-29 demographic is only slightly better than general population, and that is the group that put him over the top.

    If nothing else, this election has given hope that we will finally find a treatment for battered voter syndrome.  Nothing more powerful than a pissed off populous.

    As I commented previously, I have to wonder if those Senators who were in the bulls-eye of both the left and the right over healthcare are secretly saying a few extra prayers for Brown to win to bail them out and perhaps forgo having to announce a retirement in the spring.