R2000: Junk Poll

Today Blue Mass Group has released a poll showing Martha Coakley leading Scott Brown by a 49% to 41% to 5% margin.  Their polling firm is a Democratic company called Research 2000, the same company used by the Daily Kos.  This polling company has a history of grossly over performing Democrats in each election.

In 2009 there were two statewide races for governor.  In New Jersey, R200 showed Republican Christ Christie winning by only 1%, but on election day Christie won by 4.3%.  R2000 was off by 3.3%, favoring the Democrat, but within their 4% margin of error.

In Viringia, R2000 showed Republican Bob McDonnell with a 10% lead, but on election day McDonnell won by 17.5%.  R2000 was off by 7.5%, favoring the Democrat, and well outside their 4% margin of error.

This pattern of outperforming Democrats existed before the 2009 election as well.  In the 2008 Senate Race in  Alaska, R2000 showed Democrat Mark Begich with a whopping 22% lead heading in, but on election day he won by less than 1%.  R2000 was off by 21%, favoring the Democrat, and over 5 times their margin of error.

I have included the most recent polling data for all of the R2000 Senate races below the fold.  I used the most recent polls prior to the election and did not cherry pick any races.  

Including the 2009 governor races, R2000 had the Democrats out-polling their actual results in 11 of 14 races.  However, the Senate races in Nebraska and New Mexico were both taken more than 6 month before the election.  If we exclude those two and look at only recent polling data R2000 out-polled Democrats 10 of 12 times by an average margin of 4.45%!

The average R2000 poll has the Democrat candidate out-performing their own margin of error!  

Oh, and BTW, Rasmussen beat the R2000 poll 11 out of 12 times.  In Minnesota, there was a prominent third party candidate polling in double digits and R2000 beat Rasmussen by 1%.


The average of all 14 polls showed the Democratic candidate out-polling actual election results by an average of 3.5%

Georgia: http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

R2000: Chambliss (R) +1%

Actual: Chambliss (R) +3%

Kentucky: http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

R2000: McConnell (R) +3%

Actual: McConnell (R) +5.8%

Maine: http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

R2000: Collins (R) +13%

Actual: Collins (R) +23%

Minnesota: http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

R2000: Coleman (R) +3%

Actual: Franken (D-FL)+0%

Mississippi: http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

R2000: Wicker (R) +7%

Actual: Wicker (R) +10.6%

***Nebraska: http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

R2000: Johanns (R) +27%

Actual: Johanns (R) +28%

New Hampshire: http://www.realclearpolitics.c…

R2000: Shaheen (D) +9%

Actual: Shaheen (D) +6.4%

New Jersey: http://www.realclearpolitics.c…

R2000: Lautenberg (D) +17%

Actual: Lautenberg (D) +13.2%

***New Mexico: http://www.realclearpolitics.c…

R2000: Udall (D) +17%

Actual: Udall (D) +22.4%

North Carolina: http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

R2000: Kay (D) +5%

Actual: Kay (D) +8.5%

Oregon: http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

R2000: Merkley (D) +6%

Actual: Merkley (D) +3.1%


About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie