PREDICTION TIME: January 19th Senate race [WITH POLL]

Hi Red Mass! Long time lurker, first time poster. I am curious what redmass users think the final percentages for the upcoming Senate race will be. Specifically, what percentages do you predict each candidate (Brown, Coakley, and Kennedy) will get, and what will the turnout be?

If possible, please try to guess BEFORE you see other RMG guesses, so that we can avoid making guesses relative to other RMGers (which will create a bias around the first few posters). In that spirit, my initial predictions are below the fold.

BTW: One week away may be too long a time (in politics) to make an accurate prediction. If you would like to make a change, just reply to your own prediction with an updated one and I’ll take the most recent. thanks!

Coakley: 55

Brown: 40

Kennedy: 4

Turnout: 720,000

I do think she, as of now, takes this one pretty big (by 15), but there is a week left and if I change my prediction I will make a note of it.

The morning of the election I will put together a composite of all the predictions to see how close the RMG collective wisdom is to the final numbers.

I wish I could offer a prize to the closest prognosticator, but I have no idea how the logistics of delivery would work. And I’m poor.

ALSO: please vote in the poll honestly. The percentage of BMG folks and capital L Libertarians posting on here would be useful statistical knowledge …

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