Democrats contract the Beatty delusion

In order to make themselves feel better some Democrats are trying to downplay Scott Brown’s large victory by saying that the election results of Scott Brown don’t fit the post election narrative.  They use the 2008 election when over three million voters voted to this election where a little over two million voters voted.  This is the same logic that allowed Jeff Beatty to claim he got significantly more votes than Jim Ogonowski in his congressional race. Dick Howe, Jr. writes:

Reluctantly, I must disagree with Celinda Lake (the Coakley pollster ) – there wasn’t any shift to Brown as his vote was most likely locked in last Fall; if there were a shift why would senator Brown’s numbers track the Republican base vote to such a close degree – in Westford , Brown 5,930 ; McCain/Palin 5,501 etc.or statewide about 1.2 Million versus 1,108,854?

He and his son Arthur Andrew have fallen into the trap of analyzing dissimilar elections.  Turnout wise the 2006 election would be a better analogy. The turnout was in the same range, with only 30,000 less votes in 2006 than in the 2010 special election.  

If one looks at the same towns used in their analysis one sees a dramatic increase in the number of votes received by Scott Brown over the total of Healey-Mihos.  Which is the most similar election.  Using the Kennedy Chase numbers would just be ridiculous.  

Lowell – 10,548(B) – 8,920(H-M) – 18% increase

Dracut – 7,658(B) – 5,730(H-M) – 33.6% increase

Chelmsford – 9,419(B)- 7,810(H-M) – 20% increase

Billerica – 9,583(B) – 7,344(H-M) – 30% increase

Tewksbury – 7,352(B) – 6,274(H-M) – 17% increase

Tyngsboro – 3,186(B) – 2,398(H-M) – 32.8% increase

Looking at Boston to confirm the effect one sees that in the 2010 special election 153,270 people voted in Boston vs. 154,646 people voting in the 2006 election.  Scott Brown garnered 46,498 votes in the election vs. 38,734 for Healey and Mihos.

The commonwealth saw a tremendous break to Brown in a gubernatorial election year. If these gains are kept up, the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November is gonna be a good night.

About Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno