BREAKING: Rasmussen shows Coakley with 2 point lead

Fox 25 is reporting that Martha Coakley holds just a 2 point lead in the latest Rasmussen poll.  Amongst independents Brown has a 50 point lead.  

The numbers show that Democrat Martha Coakley holds just a two-point lead over Republican Scott Brown. Just last week Coakley held a nine-point lead.

Among Independent voters, the bulk of the state’s voters, Brown holds a 50 point lead. Brown even gets 18% of Democratic voters.

One issue that appears to be working for Brown is on terrorism. He has been hammering Coakley for wanting to try terror suspects in civilian courts. More than 60% of voters agree that the attempted plane bomber should be tried by the military.

Redouble your efforts get thee to a phone bank!

About Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno

  • 1. Martha’s got a 50% unfavorable rating among male likely voters, 40% overall.  That’s incredibly high.

    2. Martha’s big edge is among younger voters.  They are not going to turn out.  They never do.

    3. Kennedy has the highet unfavorables of all.  There must be a lot of people that think he’s a Kennedy–as in the posh Kennedys.

    4. 65% say the Detroit terrorist should be tried in a military tribunal.  I’m in a debate with the Democratic Town Committee Chairman from my town next week.  That statistic will definitely be brought up.

    Just got back from the phone bank.  Got a Brown shirt! Totally worth it.  

  • Why was this taken the day of the debate? Wouldn’t it be more accurate if they took it the day after the debate?

    I don’t know how much the debate swung things, but I would like to see a post-debate poll….

  • http://www.rasmussenreports.co

    Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Brown leads 71% to 23%. To be clear, this lead is among unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the special election.

  • I wonder why Rasmussen switched to include him.

  • I usually just read this blog, but I wanted to comment/ask a question, because something has been bothering me here.

    From the first Rasmussen poll that came out, the one thing that has made no sense to me is how can Coakley can possibly be ahead with 71% of independents in favor of Brown.  We know that Independents are 50% of the electorate, so it makes no sense. It seems as if they have to be oversampling liberals. I’m not a professional pollster, so maybe I don’t understand their methods. I can do some simple math though.  The only thing I can think of that explains this is differing definitions of “independent.” My assumption is that “unenrolleds” consider themselves “independent.”

    Since Rasmussen used 1000 likely voters, I simply applied that number to the percentages of D/R/I registered voters. I realize that Rasmussen used likely instead of registered, but I fix that later.

    2008 Electorate percentages/numbers of voters based on 1000 LV from Rasmussn 1/11

    D: 37%—–370    

    R: 11%—–110

    I/U: 51%—510

    Rasmussen results based on percentages of the above numbers:

    D/R/I

    Brown: 18%/88%/71%—67/97/362 = 526 (53%)

    Coakley: 77%/10%/23% —285/11/117 = 413 (41%)

    Brown +12

    Remaining 6% go to Kennedy or not sure.

    I know we’re not going to get all the voters to the polls, so I decided to use the percentages based on exit polls from 2008, which had a very high liberal turnout for Obama. These exit polls were from CNN, and I found them in this article on Real Clear Politics: http://realclearpolitics.blogs

    D—43% — 430

    R—17% — 170

    I—40% — 400

    The numbers using Rasmussen results:

    D/R/I

    Brown: 18%/88%/71%—77/150/284 = 511 (51%)

    Coakley: 77%/10%/23% —331/17/92 = 440 (44%)

    Brown +7

    The only way I can think that she is 2 points ahead is if they are sampling more Dems than Independents/Repubs, or if more Dems are “likely voters.” But even if that were the case, the 2008 election had very high Dem voters, and he still wins by 7 points. And there is no question that Repubs and Independents are going to have much higher turnout.  That Independent number just doesn’t make sense if she is ahead.

    Any thoughts on my math here? Am I missing something very obvious?