IS A BROWN WIN POSSIBLE?

I believe Scott Brown has a chance, albeit a slight one, to shock the political world on January 19th. Call this assessment one part innate republican optimism and one part observations from Ward 2, Newburyport on primary day.

For starters, the lack of intensity by democrats yesterday was simply stunning. MA hasn’t had a Senate vacancy since 1984 and turnout was pathetic. What’s behind the apathy? One theory expressed to the Daily News “I think it’s because people aren’t particularly excited about this race. They don’t see a big difference in the candidates. They seem pleased with them all,” Erickson said.” I agree with the first part of this statement and think the second part is dead wrong. There wasn’t a dimes worth of difference seperating the 4 democratic candidates on the major issues of this campaign and that’s the problem.

If people are excited about a candidate they are going to express it by volunteering or at least showing up to the polls to vote. Yesterday, the only campaign that had folks holding signs was Scott Brown’s. Admittedly, it was a bit chilly out there yesterday, but it wasn’t unseasonably cold, it is December after all. This lack of excitement is the canary in the coal mine moment for the democrats and they ignore it at their peril.

The US Senate is currently debating legislation on: health care, energy, a potential second (jobs bill) stimulus and a promise/threat of taking up “immigration reform”. If enacted these bills will transfer unprecedented power to the Federal government and registered democrats responded to this by staying home. If the majority of democrats in MA were excited by this agenda they would have voted in large numbers. The truth is that this agenda is only popular with the far left of the democratic party, even here in deep blue MA and independents are scared to death by it.

Some completely anecdotal, unscientific examples from yesterday. An independent voter approached me to tell me that he had voted for Scott. He also told me the guy at the desk told him he was requesting the “wrong ballot”, just part of the joy of living in MA. Another told me he works for a small plumbing supply company and if the health care bill passes they will be forced to cut their employees from 55 down to 49. They don’t want to do this, they simply can’t afford to pay the mandates that will be imposed by this legislation.

So, how does all this help Scott? Martha Coakley will be campaigning on issues that only appeal to a small percentage of voters. If Scott Brown and this is a big if, can convince the independens that are a majority of voters in this state to cast a ballot for a republican, probably for the first time in their lives he has a fighting chance.

To give Scott a fighting chance the republicans in the US Senate need to stand up and fight instead of playing nice guy. This election needs to be fought on big issues. The principal one being a victory by Scott Brown denies the democrats 60 votes for the federal takeover of health care.  

About Paul Breau

17 comments

  1. of things stand in the way of a Scott Brown victory, one that would shock the political world and (almost make Scott a future presidential candidate if he were to pull it off — that’s how big it would be).

    I have this feeling that liberal Democrats stayed home because they would have been happy with any of the boilerplate candidates. What were the differences between the candidates, assuming that Pags was sincere in his political beliefs and not just a johnny-come-lately? The differences were minimal and that allowed the Democrats to choose on second order preferences  — characteristics such as gender. So my guess is that Democrats who stayed home yesterday will come out in force in January partly because they cannot dismiss Scott Brown’s candidacy. There will be debates. There will be negative advertising; Mass Equality will take a few shots. Make no mistake, Scott Brown will morph into Dick Cheney when all the opposition research and negative advertising by out-of-state interests take hold.

    The other reason is that there is  no counterweight on the GOP side in Massachusetts to the shock troops of the SEIU and public sector unions. It’s hard to imagine independents breaking for Coakley but she’ll get a few.

    A Senator Coakley will be a big letdown in Washington.  

  2. It is a special, so anything can happen. But realistically Brown has no shot (and I think he knows it). He is not really raising much money – that is a problem. He will get no help from the national party – since they do not want to make it seem like this is a viable race, and then end up losing (they know it is not viable).

    And in the singular issue of this current campaign – healthcare, Brown is indistinguishable from Democrats. He will have a very difficult time in a debate on healthcare, since he is an unabashed supporter of the MA plan which put us on the road to government control. His biggest knock on the proposed national plan is that it will hurt MA – which “already has a good plan in place”. He cannot argue against the merits. That is a monumental problem which he cannot overcome.  

  3. There is an energy out there, but it’s only amongst maybe 30% of those voting. There was no Stephen Lynch in the race where the Brown campaign can pick off  his voters in the primary. My guess is Coakley wins 60-40. Republicans need to face the facts here. Even IF ,and that’s a big IF, Brown were to poll within 12%, you can count on more than just a simple Clinton Robo-Call on the other side. The Clintons will come out. Obama will come out. The unions and liberal special interest groups will flood the race with money and manpower. That won’t happen with our side and rightfully so. I don’t want the NRC to waste money on a campaign designed to set himself up for a future run for Treasurer or Governor. The negative campaigning will come out. Let’s not forget his ill-advised meltdown at King Philip High School 2-3 years ago. I think he was right in what he did defending his family, but the negative ad’s from the Democrats and Boston Globe won’t. They will spin that story like you won’t believe. The King Philip fiasco is still siting back and waiting, ready for the right time to bite him in the ass.

    Plain and simple, if this becomes a close race in an early poll, it soon thereafter won’t be.    

  4. If the election were held today I would say it would probably be about Coakley 57% to Brown 43%.  That’s about midway between Mitt Romney and Kerry Healey’s percentages.  However, in six week’s, Obama will probably be down to the mid-40’s in approval.  Coupled with Deval’s continued missteps, that will be toxic for the Dems.  

    So yes, a Brown win is definitely possible.

  5. He must start asking the questions: Where was Martha during all the corruption on Beacon Hill – HE has to ask it-the State GOP cannot and will not get any traction with it.

    Scott has to ask some hard hitting questions about the Fells Acre Case she was involved with – that could be the ace in the hole.

    If Scott doesn’t come out hard, I realize it is not his character, he will never dent the armor and rile her up-that’s what HAS to happen. That will force her off the edge because they won’t expect it.

    Scott is clean so where can they go ??

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