New MA Governor’s poll: Baker leads Mihos.

(Updated with Crosstabs! -DD4RP)

Today Suffolk University/7NEWS released a new Massachusetts Gubernatorial Poll and State Issues.

In a Republican primary pitting Baker against Mihos, Baker comes out on top with 43 percent of GOP voters polled, with Mihos taking 19 percent, and 38 percent undecided….

Patrick on top with 36 percent of the vote, compared to Cahill’s 23 percent and Baker’s 14 percent. Twenty-six percent were undecided.

Andy Hiller lays out how the General election will play out very well.  In a nutshell, Cahill hurts Baker.

Because there’s a strong independent candidate, we dug deeper in our poll, asking voters who their second choice is.

Patrick’s supporters picked Cahill.

Charlie Baker’s backers also said Cahill.

And for Cahill’s supporters, the back-up is Baker.

So here’s what to watch in this race.

If all three candidates stay strong, Patrick wins another term.

If the governor falters, Cahill gains enough votes to make him the next governor.

If Baker goes bust, that will also send Cahill to the corner office…

And if Cahill Crashes, then Charlie Baker gets the top job on Beacon Hill…

I would have like to seen an additional question asked to “undecided” voters.  “Between which two candidates are you deciding.”  If they have ruled out a particular candidate that is very relevant.  Of those 26% how many are between Cahill and Baker?  How many are between Cahill and Deval?  Andy Hiller’s summation confirms my suspicion that very few were deciding between Baker and Deval.  Is suspect most of them are deciding between Baker and Cahill.  Deval has very high negatives and the “Heads up” polling I’ve previously seen provide evidence to this.

The letter “D” in Massachusetts has a very high base, but Deval has even higher disapproval numbers that give him a very low ceiling.  Voters usually abandon independent and third party candidates as an election approaches to vote for the “lesser of two evils” instead of “throwing their vote away.”  For this to happen to Cahill, Baker first needs to pass him in these 3 way polls.

CROSSTABS BELOW THE FOLD….

Aslo:

Repealing the Sales Tax Hike wins 59% to 36%.

Crosstabs are now available!  A few thoughts:

  • Only 26% of voters have an an opinion of Charlie Baker.  This is probably a large reason for the small number of people committing to him in the general election.  50% of people have an opinion of Christy Mihos who has both higher positives and negatives.
  • Only 29% of voters feel Deval Patrick deserves re-election.  "Not Deval" cruches Deval.
  • Only 35% of people believe we would be better off with a Republican governor.  The letter "D" continues to crush the letter "R."  I would have preferred this question be asked “better” “worse” or “same” instead of “yes” or “no.”
  • Among self described Republicans Baker gets only 38% in the general with Cahill at 22% and Deval at 22%.  As I posted above he still crushes Christy Mihos with 42% in the primary.  Republicans are clearly not yet excited about our field of candidates.
  • Deval 36%, Cahill 24% Christy Mihos 17%.  Christy continues to do marginally better than Baker in a general election match up.

About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie