Americans are fleeing blue states

Accrding to Esquire Magazine people have been fleeing Blue States in favor of Red States in droves since the last census.  They ask “Is America moving towards a Blue Country?  The answer is of course no.  They are fleeing the blue areas.  My eyeball estimate of their graph puts this number around 4,500,000 people.

According to estimates by the Census Bureau, the nineteen states that voted for John Kerry in 2004, along with the District of Columbia, gained a total of 822,440 people between 2007 and 2008. But the thirty-one states that voted for George W. Bush – which had roughly the same number of people to start the year – gained almost two million. Perhaps the more interesting metric, however, is the migration of persons within the United States, ignoring those who move here from abroad and natural changes in population because of births and deaths.

The numbers here exclude births, deaths, and external immigration.  They are meant to be looked at purely as an internal migration of Americans between the states.

People move for various reasons.  The most common reason for these large demographic shifts are people following the jobs.  Oppressive government regulation and taxes in blue areas result in businesses being less successful than they are in areas more friendly towards economic growth.

In political terms this has resulted in some states, like Virginia, moving to the left and voting for Obama.  The voters have already moved.  What remains are reapportionment and realignment.  This will affect both congressional districts and the electoral college starting in 2012.  Massachusetts and New York will lose while Utah and Texas will gain.

Below the fold, I have included the estimates from TheGreenPapers.com for the 2010 realignment.  “The data presented is based on the 1 July 2008 Estimate by the Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau released 22 December 2008.”  Population drift that has and will occur after that date will change these numbers.  If the trends continue, these numbers will favor red states even more.  The 2010 trend estimates are the second number listed.  These numbers are from Frontloading HQ.

MORE BELOW THE FOLD….

Arizona +1 (+2)

Florida +1 (+2)

Georgia +1 (+1)

Nevada +1 (+1)

Texas +3 (+4)

Utah +1 (+1)

S. Carolind E (+1)

Iowa 1 (1)

Louisiana 1 (1)

Massachusetts 1 (1)

Michigan 1 (1)

New Jersey 1 (1)

New York 1 (1)

Ohio 1 (2)

Pennsylvania 1 (2)

Missouri E (-1)

Illinois E (-1)

Minnesota E (-1)

These numbers would results in a +5 (or +7) electoral college drift towards the GOP from McCain’s 2008 results.

Overall, Population has increased from 281,424,177 to 303,467,891.  The Average congressional district has increased from 646,952 to 697,627.  Massachusetts has increased from 6,355,568 to 6,497,967.  Thus in 2000 we deserved 9.83 congressional seats (or 10) and in 2008 we deserve 9.11 congressional seats (only 9).

These trends may continue further between December 2008 and 2010.

About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie