Gallup, Zogby, Rasmussen: Obama lead expanding (with poll)

EaBo was looking at the polls last Wednesday morning, and offered the following comment:

Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 07:22:59 AM EDT

Rasmussen 3 points

Gallup daily tracking (traditional model) 2 points

Zogby 4 points

John McCain is closing the gap as America finds out who the true Barack Obama is.  

I’ll be interested to see what happens to the RCP average today.


Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 15:00:11 PM EDT

Real Clear Politics has Obama +6.0.

So where are we now?  Answer below the fold.

Rasmussen: Obama +6

Gallup daily tracking (traditional model): Obama +11

Zogby: Obama +7

Real Clear Politics: Obama +7.5

Gallup’s models have converged.  The three models are showing very similar numbers.  Here’s the first two paragraphs of the Gallop narrative, followed by the three graphs, as three pictures are worth a few thousand keystrokes.

PRINCETON, NJ — The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll — based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking — shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup’s last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama’s final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.

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