National Council on Public Polls

I found this PDF file that has all the polling active for the 2004 election.  It includes the state-by-state polls, including Senate races.  It’s a good read for junkies.

http://www.ncpp.org/drupal57/f…

For their analysis of the different polling agencies go here:

http://www.ncpp.org/drupal57/f…

Some interesting notes:

1) Virtually all National polls were within the Margin of error with the notable exception of Fox News which actually had Kerry +2.  By contrast, Newsweek was the worst poll the other way.  They were most favorable to Bush +6.  Bush won the popular vote by around 2.5%.

It would appear that whatever biases news departments might have does not always translate to their polling.

2) 10 of 11 polls in FL were more favorable to the Democrat (Kerry) than the actual results was.  Again Fox News was the worst with Kerry +5.  Bush won FL by just over 5%.  Only Quinnipiac viewed Bush more favorably than the actual result.

RCP polling ave currently has Obama +2.7%

3) …or 2a.  Bush crushed the south, beating virtually every poll for every state:

AL: 1/1, AR: 3/3, GA: 3/3, FL: 10/11, KY: 0/1, MO: 3/3, NC: 3/3, SC: 1/1, TN: 1/2, WV: 2/2.

The KY poll has Bush winning by 21% instead of the actual of 20%

I don’t know if this will translate to McCain, but I think the Republican nominee beating the polls 27/30 times for a region of the country definitely shows a trend.  If this holds true in 2008, it might translate well in VA, NC and FL.

4) Kerry tended to do a bit better in the SW than the polling indicated in general, but not like Bush in the South.  Bush carried CO, NM and NV in 2004, but have Obama leading on RCP now.

5) the UNH/tracking poll was the most accurate for all races in 2004 for their state sweeping the President, Senate, and Governor.  In a joint poll UNH/Boston Globe they currently have Obama +15, Shaheen +13, and Shea-Porter +5 (CD-1).  I do not know if these polls use different methodology.

About Mike "DD4RP" Rossettie