McCain up by 5 points

Hold the coronation of the one who, as Nancy Pelosi said, “God has blessed us with at this time.”  Why hold it, because McCain, off of a thorough trouncing of Barack Obama in the Saddleback Civil Forum, has opened a 5 point lead on Obama.  This lead is from the most recent Reuters Poll.  The trend overall in the past week or so has been towards McCain.

In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama’s solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama’s experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.

The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia’s invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views.

What’s amazing is that the lead is from before the Saddleback Forum which is going to shore up a shaky social conservative base.  As I said, hold off the coronation.  We got ourselves a race.

About Rob "EaBo Clipper" Eno

  • In the last week or so the RCP State-by-State polling averages have flipped IN, OH, VA, CO and NV to McCain putting him ahead 274 – 264.

    McCain has also made gains in IA, MI, MN and PA.  However, he has yet to take leads there.

    For the Map:


    For the Individual Polls:


    I saw the forum.  McCain did very well.  That’s defininitely his strength.  It’s a lot like a town hall, where a question is asked, and he answers it in his own time.  Then moves on to the next question.

    Obama’s strength is reading written speeches with flowery language without going into specifics.  That way he doesn’t have to think on his feet, or talk about his actual policy posistions.

    It also didn’t hurt that a lot of these questions were right in McCain’s wheelhouse.  

  • Republican Ram Rod Radio

    This one is in the bag!!!!!!

    Do you think McCain will win with more popular votes than Bush from 2004?  Right now Bush holds the record for most popular president eva (popular votes that is).

    Anyway, I’m totally celebrating right now!

  • A Republican did better answering question from the leading evangelicals at a party for evangelicals, and tis is somehow taken to be a good sign? What’s frightening is that it’s even news. The real news is that a Democrat is making such forays that he’s invited and breaks even. THAT frightens me much more than the fact that McCain “won” excites me. These are very diminishing prospects for the future.

    You do not see McCain marching into any lions’ dens and walking off feeling that he wasn’t badly bruised.

    Point being that while Democrats will continue to make inroads among our core constituencies, we are looking mightily unable to do the same. We look old, old and tired, and McCain does nothing but posit used up old 1960s era solutions to post millenial problems, and people, especially young people, see that. It’s great that we have gay people and arabs and the  threat they pose to run against, just as we made such hay running against Russians and black people and science for so long, but we need to start standing FOR something on a national level.

  • Anyone who believes that national polls at this stage mean a thing is a fool. I had to laugh at my Democratic colleagues who were celebrating Obama’s “margins” over the past few months.

    The campaign doesn’t start until after Labor Day.

    These folks–who lack our Party fervor, as well as the ideological cheerleading of the liberals–tend to see things somewhat more clearly than we do.

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama will beat Republican John McCain in the November U.S. presidential election, prediction market traders were betting on Wednesday.

    Traders on the Dublin-based Intrade prediction market gave Obama a 61 percent chance of winning the November 4 election, versus a 35 percent chance for McCain. Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets gave the Democrat an almost 62 percent chance of winning, versus a 39 percent chance for the Republican.

    Prediction exchanges let traders buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of future events. Contracts are usually structured so prices can be read as a percentage chance of an event occurring. Studies of prediction markets have shown they have an accuracy comparable to that of public opinion polls.

    Traders were less certain about the vice presidential running mate for either candidate. Around midday on Wednesday, Obama’s chief Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, was seen as having a 22 percent chance of being his pick.

    Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia, a former Navy secretary, was given an 19 percent chance of being Obama’s choice, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson had a 6 percent chance and former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner a 5.5 percent chance.

    On the Republican side, traders gave former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney a 20 percent chance of being McCain’s running mate. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty had a 16 percent

    chance and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee a 12 percent chance.

    (Editing by Alan Elsner)

  • BrocktonDave

    Would it be better seeing as Barack is taking a dive in the polls, for the Dems to change their nominee at the convention?  or to just follow the lemming off the cliff?

    I’m wondering the dynamics in play?  How would it pan out if they changed their minds because Barack has a glass jaw?