Media misses Clinton surge; Polls distort politics on the ground

As I write, Clinton is poised to stage an upset. This is NOT the narrative that dominated the news for the past two days and most of the Post-Iowa coverage. ABC News as of 8:41 has the race as follows.

Clinton 17,008 40% 0  

Obama 14,959 35% 0  

Edwards 7,077 17% 0  

Richardson 1,832 5% 0  

Kucinich 803 2% 0  

Biden 75 0% 0  

Gravel 58 0% 0  

Dodd 35 0% 0

This proves in my mind that the mainstream media are saps or useful idiots for the Clinton Machine. Two key points have largely gone unexamined in the poll-driven coverage biased in favor of Barack.

1) Did poll respondents lie about their support for a black candidate? Particularly in an overwhelming white state which was the last state to adopt MLK Day as a paid state holiday!

2) Why hasn’t the Shaheen connection been played up. As I see it, this primary is a trial run for the former Democratic Governor who is seeking a rematch with incumbent Republican Senator John Sunnunu. The Shaheens are running the Clinton operation in NH, are they not?

There’s something fundamentally wrong about the enterprise of political polling in this modern age of cell phones and the Internet.  

About Karl Marx

Left wing libertarian conservative.

  • Vote3rdpartynow

    I think the media had the poll numbers correct with the exception of two important elements.

    1.) Late deciders – I heard a huge percentage of voters did not make up their mind until they walked into the voting booth.  This became important when Hillary phonied up her crying game on election eve.  You will see more crying as the campaign continues.  Already Bubba Clinton cried when his wife won the NH primary.  Had the media just ignored it Obama would have won.

    2.) The media played up an Obama victory so heavily that many of those undecideds and Independents may have assumed an Obama victory was evident and turned for McCain instead.

    What I think is important:

    1.) Romney is hurt.  The local boy couldn’t carry the neighbor state.  One key message change is to stop saying “he won two silvers and one gold”.  “He” didn’t “win” anything – the people who support him worked for those two silvers and a gold.  If Mitt doesn’t start sharing success with others he will lose handily.  Mitt needs to talk less about his personal success and more about how he got everyone around him to succeed as a team.  What is also becoming evident is that McCain, Huckabee and Rudy all genuinely like each other.  None of them seem to like Romney.  

    2.) The next 36 hours will determine if the Obama bubble has been burst.  I hope he remains strong.

    3.) I predict lots of emotional moments by the Clinton team.  Expect Bubba and Hillary to start a full fledged dramafest for all to see.  Now that voters think they have seen the “real Hillary” they want more of it so they can finally relate after all these years.

    4.) Huckabee is a winner.  FoxNews hates him, but this guy is for real.  A reasonably strong third place finish means he has staying power and some broader appeal than just evangelicals.  No matter how hard FoxNews try to pigeonhole him he is helping to define the message of all the candidates.  

    5.) Iowa voted for change – New Hampshire voted for same old-same old.  If any high-paid pundits thought they had their fingers on the pulse of this race they are wrong.  Each state will continue to bring surprises.  If change is the message then why is Hillary looking to bring back James Carvelle and Bugalla?

    6.) Iowa and NH have historically served to winnow down the field of candidates.  Not the case this year and some of those second tier candidates are splitting this race into a real contest.  With Edwards and Huckabee in the teens last night they hold the key to the race.

    7.) The biggest loser in this years primary race is FoxNews.  Check youtube for videos of Sean hannity being harrassed by Ron Paul supporters as he walked through NH.  FoxNews has become evident in their support of Romney and their degredation of the others is pissing people off.