Can The GOP Win In Today’s Special Election?

Today is the special election for the state senate seat in the 4th Middlesex District. Running for the open seat are Republican candidate Brion Cangiamila, Democrat candidate James Marzilli, Jr., & Constitution candidate Thomas Fallon. Turnout is expected to be low so the candidate with the best GOTV will win. Having been a former selectman & a former state rep, Cangiamila is no babe in the woods when it comes to campaigning. He has a decent shot – especially if the state party puts as much resources into this race as possible. Marzilli currently works as a state rep & is well respected in liberal circles. The Democrats are working hard to get him elected & thus he holds an advantage in this race. Fallon is making a lot of noise here at RMG but to date I haven’t heard anything about him from my contacts in the district. It remains to be seen if he’ll have any impact on the race. Comments, anyone?

Update: Numbers…

Brion Cangiamila Jim Marzilli Tom Fallon
Arlington 1014 3378 102
Woburn 716 582 133
Lexington 352 1301 28
Burlington 688 464 149
Billerica 1041 548 57
Total 3811 6273 469

About ConcernedVoterInMass

  • wavemaker

    Arlington and 4 precincts of Lax-ington make this one impervious to moderation. If everyone in Burlington and Billerica voted twice, maybe.

    I’m afraid Marzilli has this sewn up — another raving moonbat to increase his power base. At least he’s not as smart as Havern.

  • At 3:30pm, I was the 86th person in my precinct to vote.

  • Festus Garvey

    is the OH 5th.  A solid Republican district…it will probably have the same results as our recent congressional special–a slim win by the party that should trounce.  But in this race the DC Dems and Reps spent nearly a million bucks between them…so this one has brought far more action than our 5th.  And with the Rep Congressional Committee short on money, this race has suck up about 10 percent of their C o H.  

  • The Angelic One

    Cangiamila won three out of five; too bad he couldn’t overcome Arlington & Lexington.

    I hope Willington will pop in to provide us here at RMG some context on the election.

    By the way, what kind of numbers did Fallon pull?

  • MerrimackMan

    Cangiamila ran well in Woburn, Burlington and Billerica. As he should, he would represent those towns well. Marzilli probably represents the interests of Lexington and Arlington more. This divergence just tells me this is just another gerrymandered mess…

  • The Angelic One

    Thus far no response from Willington on the state committee’s assessment of the results from the 4th Middlesex District race. I do hope one is forthcoming. I’d like to know the following:

    1) Did Cangiamila & his team do the nuts & bolts grassroots thing (like door-to-door) or, due to the compressed schedule, did they forgo it? If so, why? Was it due to lack of funds?

    2) Did Cangiamila campaign district-wide or did he concentrate only on turf thought to be friendly towards his candidacy? If the latter, were plans in place & executed for a massive GOTV to offset probable losses in places like Arlington & Lexington?

    3) Cangiamila was quoted as saying the state committee provided his campaign with a lot of help. What about his own organization? How did Team Cangiamila perform on all levels?

    4) How many registered Republicans live in the district? I would have thought a larger amount would have gone to the polls. Why didn’t they? Was GOTV up to snuff on this or did it breakdown?

    5) The “Grinch” postcard was cute but was it effective? Did it mobilize Republicans/Independents to vote for Cangiamila – or did it motivate the Democrats to kick his ass? Why wasn’t the state GOP clearly identified as the author of the piece? Wasn’t it proud of its mailer? If not, why was said piece mailed?

    I could go on but answers to the aforementioned questions would be a great start to examine the pluses & minuses of the campaign in order to learn from it & apply its lessons to the next campaign.

  • Rob Willington

    Brion Cangiamila – 3,810 (33.2% of GOP registration)

    Jim Marzilli – 6,273 (15.9% of Dem registration)

    11, 454 Republicans

    39,444 Democrats

    4/4 Republicans 617

    4/4 Democrats 6,619

    Bush – 30,295

    Kerry – 51,433

    Hi All,

    Matt Talancy, the campaign manager is going to write up an internal analysis of the campaign.  For RMG, I can add a few things.  First, we knew that Arlington and Lexington were going to be very difficult for us based on election history and voter registration.  We knew we had to win Burlington, Woburn, and Billerica but we had to win them with a larger margin (obviously.)  Yes, the campaign went door to door and it also made a lot of personal phone calls but not the volume that we needed.  We had goals of phone calls to be made per week/day to achieve our daily/weekly voter id goals but we were coming up short.  We need more activists and we can’t wait for campaigns to find new volunteers, there are several tactics that RTC’s can be doing right now to identify future GOP volunteers. If you are interested in learning more about what you can do now, please request access to MassRootsAction http://www.massgop.com/FlexPag…  

    We turned the RNC “72 Hour” GOTV program into our own “96 Hour” GOTV program and our base received multiple contacts in the last 96 hours, and coordinated rides to the polls.  The Grinch mailer was only one mailer out of many that we did and it was to grab the attention of the reader –  it did not mobilize the Democrats since the mailer was sent to targeted houses (but they obviously obtained a copy).  We were not relying on one mailer to do the trick.

    Special elections are for special voters and the primary voters in each party are more more in-tune with elections.  Keep in mind that the Democrat candidates spent nearly a half million dollars combined in the Democrat primary a few weeks ago.  Therefore, the Democrats were really awake to the fact that there was an open State Senate seat and a special election.  Marzilli received 6,631 votes in the Democrat primary which is 358 more votes in the primary than he  received in the general.

    Also there are 6,619 hardcore Democrat voters that have voted 4 times in the last 4 elections (compared to 617 Republicans) in this district – if Brion had won,  he would have had the smallest number of registered Republicans in any senate seat held by a Republican.

    The blame is not with the Arlington vote.  What kills me is that even if we take Arlington out of the race, Marzilli still wins with 99 votes since he did so well in Lexington.  The problem was not Arlington/Lexington, it was weak turnout in Billerica, Burlington, and Woburn.  We needed to go into the GOTV phase with more positive ID’s and we needed more personal contacts on that universe in the last 96 hours.  This requires more volunteers and activists to be involved and to be doing the right things.  

    I have to run now but if you want to chat more about this race I would be happy to do so over a cup of egg nog.  I will be at the Young Republican Christmas Party with Jim Ogonowski tonight and would love to see you there.

    Young Republicans Christmas Party with Ogonowski

    Please join the MA Federation of Young Republicans for its’ 2007 Holiday Party! Our special guest will be Congressional Candidate Jim Ogonwoski, and all GOP candidates for Office in 2007.  All food will be homemade by fellow Republicans, and all proceeds go to the newly launched MFYR PAC to help candidates in 2008.

    Cost is $25 for Young Republicans $50.00 for non-YRs, $75 for couples.  

    Please RSVP to Richard Wheeler @ ricwheel@aol.com or via phone at 617 872 0096.  Happy Holidays.

    -Rob